His audiences know him as THE ”Inflation Guy.” In the inflation markets he is known as a pioneer. He is considered as the Expert to the experts in the world of inflation markets where true expertise is hard to find. In this podcast the Inflation Guy talks about the hidden tax, the insidious assault on your wealth, and how to defend your money. Have a question? Get the Inflation Guy app or email InflationGuy@enduringinvestments.com
Ep.9: This Month‘s CPI Report - A Watershed Moment
The Inflation Guy talks about a couple of the salient points from yesterday's CPI report - indications that "Team Transitory" has been routed and sent off the field in disgrace.
Ep.8: Hari Seldon, Psychohistory, and the Failings of Modern Macroeconomics
Isaac Asimov's character (from the Foundation series, now an Apple TV series) Hari Seldon is a psychohistorian, which basically means he is a macro-behavioral economist. But he has a much better forecasting rate and a much longer horizon than today's economists. Why? What can we learn from Asimov's invention of 'psychohistory,' and are there any hints that group behavior may be more predictable than it seems to be in practice? Yup!
Ep. 7: Rents and Sensibility
The biggest weight in most inflation baskets is the cost of shelter. Its weight also implies its importance, since measuring shelter wrong means you're measuring inflation wrong! In this episode of Sense and Sensibility, the Inflation Guy explains why "Primary Rents" doesn't rise as rapidly as the change in asking rents, and why "Owner's Equivalent Rent" is a concept that makes sense - and is a very necessary concept for measuring shelter inflation of owner-occupied housing.
Ep. 6: Evergrande and Inflation - Why the Model Matters
Today's global decline in stocks, if it turns into something more serious, will affect the inflation debate. In this episode of the Inflation Guy Podcast, the IG explains how asset price declines and the relationship of those declines to growth forecasts cause different effects if you are driven by a classical/Keynesian view of the world, rather than a monetarist view. While this decline may not turn out to be very large, someday the stock market will decline - and how central banks look at that event will directly affect policy. But...should it?
Ep. 5: Stagflation from a Monetarist‘s Perspective
"Stagflation" is a term we hear frequently today, as inflation indicators rise and the growth outlook has been looking less-rosy every week. How does a monetarist, as opposed to a Keynesian, think about the conditions that cause a stagflationary outcome? In this episode, the Inflation Guy walks the listener through the Equation of Exchange (MV=PQ), asking how we can get a high change in "P" associated with a low change in "Q."
Ep. 4: The Making of an Inflation Index
In this episode of Cents and Sensibility, the Inflation Guy walks through some of the issues that affect the making of an inflation index, and illustrates why decisions about what "measuring inflation" means impacts how an index is constructed, and how it compares with our visceral sense of inflation.