22 episodes

Global Economy Milken Institute

    • Business

    • video
    Quantitative Exiting: The Road Ahead for Monetary Policy

    Quantitative Exiting: The Road Ahead for Monetary Policy

    Speakers:

    Laurence Boone, Managing Director and Head of Developed Europe Economics, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Research

    Jason Cummins, Head of Research and Chief U.S. Economist, Brevan Howard Inc.

    Spencer Dale, Executive Director and Chief Economist, Bank of England

    Brian Sack, Senior Vice President and Co-Director of Global Economics, D.E. Shaw Group
    Moderator:

    David Zervos, Managing Director and Chief Market Strategist, Jefferies LLC. Rattled by prospects of the Federal Reserve "tapering" its unconventional stimulus, and happy that it hasn't, investors are wondering what changes to expect from monetary policy around the world. Most observers believe that the European Central Bank and Bank of England will leave key interest rates as they are for several years. But could a more-rapid-than-anticipated tapering by the Fed change this outlook? The uncertainty for Japan - which continues to move full speed ahead with Abenomics and its own brand of quantitative easing - is whether an unexpected turn in the economy might derail this policy. As for emerging markets, many have been rocked by a sudden shift in capital flows as Fed policy helped draw cash back to the core regions. And there is concern that monetary policy might need to be tightened because of continuing currency depreciation. Will central bankers launch the global economy into the much-discussed but elusive escape velocity, or are we set for an even more anemic version of the "new normal"?

    • 55 min
    • video
    Global Overview: Is Confidence Returning?

    Global Overview: Is Confidence Returning?

    Speakers:

    Willem Buiter, CBE, Chief Economist, Citi

    Ann Cairns, President, International Markets, MasterCard

    Ed Daniels, Chairman, Shell UK; Executive Vice President, Downstream Technology, Royal Dutch Shell

    Alexander Friedman, Global Chief Investment Officer, UBS AG

    Tidjane Thiam, Group CEO, Prudential Plc
    Moderator:

    Gillian Tett, Assistant Editor and Columnist, Financial Times. The Great Recession is shrinking in the rear-view mirror - and the relief is palpable. Economic prospects in the United States seem to be brightening, with GDP growth expected to surpass 3 percent next year. And while China's expansion no longer dazzles, it remains robust. Even Japan has enjoyed a short-term boost. Yet amid the inconsistency - some might say lethargy - of the recovery, investors remain noticeably nervous. Some regions are still grasping for growth, such as Europe. And some up-and-coming countries once considered both safe and vibrant, e.g., Turkey and Brazil, have seen political turmoil that raises questions about their futures. What will central banks do in the coming months - will they modify their activist stance? Will the Middle East heat up even further in 2014? And with its own energy boom, does the West still care? Are other emerging markets still alluring? How will innovation and public policy shape the next waves in health and technology? Our opening plenary will set the stage for the Summit by examining these and other consequential challenges and trends.

    • 58 min
    • video
    Global Risk

    Global Risk

    Speakers: Mathew Burrows, Counselor, National Intelligence Council, Office of the Director of National Intelligence. Wesley Clark, Chairman and CEO, Wesley K. Clark & Associates; Army General (ret.) and former Supreme Allied Commander, NATO. Jane Harman, Director, President and CEO, Wilson Center; former Congresswoman. Larry Zimpleman, Chairman, President and CEO, Principal Financial Group
    Moderator: Joel Kurtzman, Senior Fellow and Executive Director, Milken Institute Senior Fellows Program; Publisher, Milken Institute Review. The world is changing rapidly - that's the only constant. What's different about how it's changing now? Europe is still mired in a debt crisis and economic slump. But the worst didn't happen and the euro zone is intact. China did slow down, but avoided the hard landing that many feared. And while the U.S. still faces mountains of debt, the economy is growing again and companies are hiring. On the other hand, North Korea threatened a nuclear attack on the U.S. and fired shells into the ocean near South Korea. A bloody civil war persists in Syria, while Egypt and much of the Arab world lurch to (and from) democracy. All the while, fears of energy scarcity are being replaced by visions of abundance. This panel will examine this new world and the tensions that keep policymakers up at night.

    • 56 min
    • video
    Global Markets in Uncertain Times

    Global Markets in Uncertain Times

    Speakers:

    Madelyn Antoncic, Vice President and Treasurer, The World Bank

    Willem Buiter, Chief Economist, Citigroup

    Terry Duffy, Executive Chairman and President, CME Group

    Mohamed El-Erian, CEO and Co-Chief Investment Officer, PIMCO

    Ken Griffin, Founder and CEO, Citadel
    Moderator:

    Alexander Friedman, Global Chief Investment Officer, UBS AG.
    Politics is on the minds of global investors and economic observers. In the United States, debt pressures, ideology and other factors led to the struggle over sequestration, yet the recovery is progressing. Europe is still afloat, but the lifeboat is prone to leaks. In China, a new leadership group is trying to revitalize economic growth amid the pressure of rising needs - which implies growing consumer demand. At the start of the 2013 Global Conference, we'll bring experience and judgment to bear on the unknowns of the global economy and markets. Will central banks modify their activist stance? Where are costs rising or falling, and will that change the direction of capital flows? How long can inflation stay tame? Are the next big opportunities in minerals, manufacturing or technology?

    • 1 hr 14 min
    • video
    Credit Markets: What's Next?

    Credit Markets: What's Next?

    Speakers:

    Maria Boyazny , Founder and CEO, MB Global Partners, LLC

    Richard Cantor, Chief Risk Officer, Moody's Corporation; Chief Credit Officer, Moody's Investors Service

    Joshua Friedman, Co-Founder, Co-Chairman and Co-CEO, Canyon Partners, LLC

    Tony Ressler, Chairman of the Executive Committee, Ares Management LLC

    Steven Tananbaum, Managing Partner and Chief Investment Officer, GoldenTree Asset Management

    David Warren, Chief Investment Officer, Brevan Howard Credit Catalysts Fund
    Moderator:

    Michael Milken, Chairman, Milken Institute

    In our annual look at the state of global credit markets, Institute Chairman Mike Milken and leading players will discuss a rapidly shifting landscape. This year, some observers believe we are in the early stages of the Great Rotation - a broad shift in investor preference from debt to equity that would reverse the cycle begun in 2009. Quantitative easing, a favored tool of central banks in recent years, can't last forever. Indeed, the U.S. Federal Reserve balance sheet recently crossed the $3-trillion mark, more than three times pre-crisis levels. What has that thumb on the scale done for credit quality, particularly in mortgage markets, where the Fed owns $1 trillion in debt? As central banks slow their purchasing, will corporate borrowers feel the side effects? Should we worry about the return of covenant-lite loans? Are early signs of rising default rates about to change the picture for credit availability? And what role will towering sovereign-debt levels play in fixed-income markets this year?

    • 1 hr 3 min
    2013 Global Opportunity Index: Attracting Foreign Investment

    2013 Global Opportunity Index: Attracting Foreign Investment

    As a destination for direct foreign investment, China is rising - and the U.S. is falling. That's one of the findings in our newest report, The Global Opportunity Index: Attracting Foreign Investment.
    Foreign direct investment (FDI) has never been more important in catalyzing growth, whether in the developed or developing world. It now accounts for 11 percent of global GDP and more than 80 million jobs worldwide. But which countries are creating the best environments to capture these growth-fuelling investments? Institute researchers have ranked the attractiveness for investment of 98 countries. Sixty-seven variables were assessed across five broad categories: economic fundamentals, regulatory barriers, ease of doing business, regulatory quality, and the rule of law. Hong Kong and Singapore lead the index, with Canada, Switzerland, Australia and five members of the European Union rounding out the top ten. Second from the bottom is Venezuela; as the report notes, the nationalization of foreign firms pursued by the late President Hugo Chavez has made the country a "precarious location for FDI."
    "The Global Opportunity Index helps identify opportunities for companies contemplating making investments of 'patient' capital," says Keith Savard, senior managing economist and one of the authors of the report. "For policy makers in the host countries, the Index helps illuminate policy changes that can be implemented quickly and often at low cost, in order to make their countries more attractive for FDI."

    The rank of the United States? Twenty-two - one place behind France. In Europe's economically-troubled periphery, only Ireland remained in the top 10, while Greece plunged below China and many other emerging economies. See the accompanying web tool that provides full access to the rankings, in each of the five categories, with an interactive feature that allows users to customize the rankings, screening for the investment factors that matter most to them.

    Part of the Milken Institute's Access to Global Capital Initiative, "The Global Opportunity Index" was developed with the support of Liquidnet, an institutional trading network that facilitates trading in 41 markets globally.

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