Macro Matters Millennium Global

Episode 12:
In this episode of the Macro Matters podcast by Millennium Global, we share our Q3 2023 Global Currency & Macroeconomic Outlook. Our Lead Economist, Piya Sachdeva, Economist & Strategist, Sandra Rhouma and Junior Portfolio Manager, Eve Danbury discuss the macro themes that will matter most in the coming quarter and how these are expected to impact global currencies.
Discussion points:
01:59: Regional banking stress.
04:01: Broad outlook on the US economy.
06:40: Fast thoughts on the Fed and the trajectory for US inflation.
09:44: Global growth and the China narrative.
12:16: US dollar views into the next quarter.
16:13: Thoughts on the ECB and the Euro.
19:25: Japanese Yen views for the second half of 2023.
21:17: BoE moving forward and the British Pound in a global context.
24:28:  Views on the SNB and Swiss Franc from here.
26:56: Australia - RBA and the Australian dollar.
28:40: Global growth in relation to the Bank of Canada and the Canadian dollar.
30:57: China - the most pivotal story for markets into the next quarter.
34:07: Excitement of emerging markets.
IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERS: This piece of content contains the views and opinions of our Global Economic Research and Strategy Team as of 13th July 2023 and does not necessarily represent the views and opinions of Millennium Global or any of its Portfolio Managers. This information is intended for Professional Clients only, not retail clients. This information does not constitute an offer to buy or a solicitation of an offer to sell and does not constitute an offer or solicitation in any jurisdiction in which such a solicitation is unlawful or to any person to whom it is unlawful. Past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future results. Forecasts are not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. For further information please see Important Disclaimers on https://investments.millenniumglobal.com/regulatory-disclaimers

Discussion points:
02:00: US/China relations - Is there scope for a détente?
10:55: China/Taiwan - Arguably, the hottest topic in geo-politics.
26:20: North Korea - Is their nuclear programme a genuine threat?
29:40: Russia/Ukraine - Are we heading towards a resolution? What could unfold from here?
34:09: EU cohesion - Franco/German relationship hits new lows; a rapprochement between Sunak and Von De Leyen.
42:15: Middle East - An impending escalation in conflict with Israel?
49:07: Washington/Riyadh - Riyadh pivot to Bejing?
50:52: Washington/Europe - Is the special relationship with London dead? How might the relationship with Brussels change in the future?
56:02: UN - Is it a relic, can it be reformed, will it survive in its current form?
IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERS: The views and opinions expressed in this content are those of the presenters, Abigail Cushing, Mark Astley and Nigel Inkster, correct as at 5 May 2023. The value of any investments may fall as well as rise. This information is intended for Professional Clients only. Millennium Global does not target retail clients. This information does not constitute an offer to buy or a solicitation of an offer to sell and does not constitute an offer or solicitation in any jurisdiction in which such a solicitation is unlawful or to any person to whom it is unlawful. For further information please see Important Disclaimers on: https://investments.millenniumglobal.com/millennium-global-marketing-disclaimers

Is the twenty year decline in the proportion of US dollars held in global reserves the beginning of a paradigm shift or part of business as usual? 
Discussion points:
01:07: Why has the topic of de-dollarization become so prevalent lately and what are the key arguments supporting the notion of the dollar’s demise?
03:36: What is the crux of the argument around the weaponization of the USD fueling global de-dollarization?  How much of a potential problem is this really?
07:31: Perhaps a helpful way to frame the argument for or against the dollar’s reserve status is to put it into historical context. Can you break that history down for us? And what are the key factors that typically support a currency’s reserve status?
12:50: One of the biggest arguments in favour of continued dominance of the USD as the global reserve is the lack of a viable alternative. Can you elaborate on that?
18:30: Are there any risks to being too complacent about dollar dominance? Is there a risk of the USD’s share of global reserves dipping further? What would that mean for the US and for global markets?  
22:21: What actions by the US could put the dollar’s status as the reserve currency at real risk?
IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERS: The views and opinions expressed in this content are correct as at April 2023. The value of any investments may fall as well as rise. This information is intended for Professional Clients only. Millennium Global does not target retail clients. This information does not constitute an offer to buy or a solicitation of an offer to sell and does not constitute an offer or solicitation in any jurisdiction in which such a solicitation is unlawful or to any person to whom it is unlawful. For further information please see Important Disclaimers on: https://investments.millenniumglobal.com/millennium-global-marketing-disclaimers

EPISODE 9:
In this episode of the Macro Matters podcast by Millennium Global, we share our Q2 2023 Global Currency & Macroeconomic Outlook. Our Lead Economist, Piya Sachdeva, Economist & Strategist, Sandra Rhouma and Junior Portfolio Manager, Eve Danbury discuss the macro themes that will matter most in the coming quarter and how these are expected to impact global currencies.
Discussion points:
01:54: How do you think the next quarter plays out for the US and what do you think about the Fed's reaction function in terms of going forward, given the likely credit tightening that is now taking place post this initial banking liquidity crisis?
06:22: Do you foresee any further spillovers into the European banking sector from what's happened in the US? And then from that, what's what's your base case for the ECB from here, given core inflation at the moment is still proving to remain sticky in the near term?
10:47: But from a macro standpoint, Piya, what's your view on the dollar and to the second quarter of this year?
13:14: How are you thinking about the euro here over the next quarter?
15:38: So how are you thinking about the yen from here?
17:41: How are you thinking about the UK and starting from here? 
19:47: What are your thoughts on the Swiss franc from here?
21:53: Sandra, what are your thoughts on Australia and the RBA and consequently the Aussie dollar from here?
23:31: How are you thinking about commodities and oil prices broadly and how does that feed into your more neutral view on the Canadian dollar?
25:01: Is there anything else we should be thinking about with specific focus on Brazil?
27:39: Do you think there's limited upside for the currency (CNH) from the reopening given the current account dynamics and also, the lack of spillover that we've seen in regional exports? What are your thoughts here?
IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERS: This piece of content contains the views and opinions of our Global Economic Research and Strategy Team as of 6th April 2023 and does not necessarily represent the views and opinions of Millennium Global or any of its Portfolio Managers. This information is intended for Professional Clients only, not retail clients. This information does not constitute an offer to buy or a solicitation of an offer to sell and does not constitute an offer or solicitation in any jurisdiction in which such a solicitation is unlawful or to any person to whom it is unlawful. Past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future results. Forecasts are not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. For further information please see Important Disclaimers on https://investments.millenniumglobal.com/regulatory-disclaimers

In this episode of the Macro Matters podcast by Millennium Global, Abigail Cushing and Mark Astley discuss the latest Bank of International Settlements (BIS) Triennial Central Banks Survey and how the key takeaways translate to the year ahead in currency markets.
Discussion points:01:41 - So, Mark, for the benefit of our listeners who may not have had the pleasure of going through it in its entirety, what in your mind are the key takeaways from this year's report?
06:09 - Those are some interesting developments and I think shed some light on key trends we might expect to continue in the coming months and years. Let's focus on last year; 2022 was an extraordinary year for financial markets, to say the least, and no less so for foreign exchange. Why was last year such a standout year for currency markets?
09:27 - That's a very different landscape than what we've seen in some time. It sounds like from what you're saying, what we experienced last year was not merely a phenomenon and now we'll return to the smoother environment we've generally seen in the years since the financial crisis, but, that we should expect this wild ride in currency markets to continue. Can you expand on that?
12:33 - So what have we learned, as investors lick their wounds from what was for many a painful year and start planning for 2023 and beyond, what lessons should be applied? Are the rules of the game different now? And if so, how do institutional investors account for that in their portfolios?
17:36 - Those are some helpful points on how investors might think about navigating the year ahead. Still looking ahead, what are the biggest risks in your view, to the now seemingly priced in Goldilocks scenario where the Fed can engineer a soft landing, inflation goes back to 2% without a hugely disruptive hit to growth and global equity and bond markets begin a sustained recovery. Are we going to be that lucky?
20:15 - If you could leave investors with one piece of advice, Mark, what would it be?
IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERS:
The views and opinions expressed in this content are correct as at January 2023. The value of any investments may fall as well as rise. This information is intended for Professional Clients only. Millennium Global does not target retail clients. This information does not constitute an offer to buy or a solicitation of an offer to sell and does not constitute an offer or solicitation in any jurisdiction in which such a solicitation is unlawful or to any person to whom it is unlawful. For further information please see Important Disclaimers on: https://investments.millenniumglobal.com/millennium-global-marketing-disclaimers

In this episode of the Macro Matters podcast by Millennium Global, we share our Q1 2023 Global Currency & Macroeconomic Outlook. Our Lead Economist, Piya Sachdeva and Analyst, Eve Danbury discuss the macro themes that will matter most in the coming quarter and how these are expected to impact global currencies.
Discussion points:01:11 - First, really, I just wanted to ask you, how are you thinking about inflation and the shift in component contribution to inflation, particularly focusing in the US, which remains the center point of focus for markets at the moment?
03:44 - So, you speak a bit about the concern that the Fed have in terms of possibly over tightening, but ultimately there is that sticky component of inflation, which they do need to tackle. In terms of the tightening already done by the Fed and central banks globally, which is a considerable amount. How much feed through has that been to growth and consumers?
05:03 - And then from that specifically on the Fed, what are your thoughts on how they might be looking at their rate path from here and how do you think they're thinking about the lags to the tightening that they've already done?
09:00 - Just before we turn to currency specifics, I think it's worth just adding a comment on markets more broadly.
10:21 - From a macro eco standpoint, what's your view on the dollar into Q1 next year and how are you thinking about those correlations?
14:43 - How does that translate into your ECB view and is there more to go for them on rate hikes? And then with that, what's your euro view as a consequence for Q1?
17:39 - So sticking with undervalued currencies and arguably flipping to the place that is perhaps the most behind out of everyone in terms of monetary policy, Japan and looking to the yen, it continues to stand out on a valuation basis. But what else leads you to have a more positive view on the currency into next year?
20:08 - What are your thoughts on the pound in an environment where inflation is coming lower?
23:03 - What are your views on the SNB going into Q1 and consequently the Swiss franc from here?
26:53 - Shifting a bit away from correlations to bond prices and rates markets and looking more to the commodity currencies. Both of the G10 commodity currencies, AUD and CAD are acutely sensitive to commodity prices globally, of the Canada obviously specifically oil led. So, the Australian dollar, what are your thoughts around the currency given its overall relationship to risk asset markets?
And then for CAD, for the Canadian dollar, if commodities are set to remain at current levels or possibly lower, as you mentioned, specifically looking at European gas prices, do you see this having a negative effect on the Canadian dollar?
30:17 - You mentioned the commodity price outlook with regards to China, I mean, that's been another huge theme that has gathered pace over the last quarter and certainly looks set to stay at the forefront of investors’ minds going into next year with reopening underway and we're moving away now from from zero COVID policies. How are you thinking about the renminbi as we enter this reopening phase and what do you think this reopening could mean for China's capital inflows?
34:24 - To summarize all our thoughts on the macro environment.
This piece of content contains the views and opinions of our Global Economic Research and Strategy Team as of December 2022 and does not necessarily represent the views and opinions of Millennium Global or any of its Portfolio Managers. This information is intended for Professional Clients only, not retail clients. This information does not constitute an offer to buy or a solicitation of an offer to sell