World of Oil Derivatives Greg Newman

Brent futures opened at $87.50 per barrel, seeing a $1 decrease due to promising ceasefire negotiations, with a Hamas delegate heading to Cairo on Monday. The market is rather sanguine on geopolitical risk, and has been de-risking over the past week, with open interest in ETFs seeing a substantial decline.
 Looking to the refinery margin changes, the prompt European margin increased slightly over the week as stronger products outweighed stronger crude. There was notable strength observed in gasoline, naphtha, and 3.5% barges.
 This week, James focuses on mixed U.S. data, featuring weak GDP headlines but strong inflation components, potentially posing challenges for the Federal Reserve. Powell's press conference at this week's Fed meeting will be closely watched.
 In the "Googling Oil" segment, the prevailing headline revolves around oil pricing falling on Monday, signalling the possibility of Israel and Hamas engaging in ceasefire talks this week.
 Vincent's trade idea this week is to go short on the Q3 EBOB crack. You can find more details here: https://youtu.be/5CEovEVKGhI 
If you would like to connect with any of our hosts on LinkedIn, please click on the hyperlinks below:
Greg Newman: https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/
James Brodie: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamesbrodiecmt/
Martha Dowding: https://www.linkedin.com/in/martha-dowding-ab84801a6/
Vincent Wu: https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincent-wu-099816125/

Chapters for this episode are: 
0:00 Welcome 
1:00 Brent Futures 
7:06 Macro market news 
18:28 Refinery margins 
25:51 "Googling oil:" world oil news 
30:02 One to watch
32:36 Trade idea of the week
36:27 Poll results and outro

Welcome back to the second episode of Macro Mondays with James Brodie - Trends, Risk & Analysis.

On today's show James discusses recent mixed economic data out of the US, OIS pricing and the Yen volatility. He also dives into what's happening with gold, silver, tech and equity markets.
 
Looking at recent employment data, James explains that although employment data is strong, the jobs that are being created are part time jobs and full time jobs are being lost. In fact, 1.34 million fulltime jobs have been lost, which is not a good sign for the economy...
 
If you would like to connect with any of your host, James Brodie. You can follow him X (formally Twitter) @jamesrbrodie Or, follow him on LinkedIn by clicking the link below: James Brodie: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamesbrodiecmt/

Looking at the past week, the oil market was too long and had to de-risk.

Brent Futures saw a week of stagnation and mean reversion, $90/bbl oil was very short lived and sell-off was driven by speculative positioning cycles as market participants took off length amid a waning geopolitical premium.

Looking to the refinery margin change, Dated Brent was weaker than last week and is now seeing a little bit of support, whilst gasoil continued to weaken. Martha notes the difference between the straight run and more complex products including some interesting moves in VGO prices.

The ones to watch this week are gold and tech stocks. Gold broke higher out of the $2080 resistance level the same week S&P and Nasdaq topped. However tech stock giant, Nvidia was down 21.8% from all-time highs on the week.

The big stories to follow in our "Googling Oil" segment this week are; US reimposing oil sanctions on Venezuela after broken election promises and Louisiana State University allowing Shell to influence studies after a $25m donation.

The Trade Idea for this week is to go long May Gasoline E/W.

Don't forget to check out Macro Mondays with James Brodie here: Macro Mondays with James Brodie
 
If you would like to connect with any of our hosts on LinkedIn, please click on the hyperlinks below:
Greg Newman:  https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/
James Brodie:  https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamesbrodiecmt/
Martha Dowding:  https://www.linkedin.com/in/martha-dowding-ab84801a6/
Vincent Wu: https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincent-wu-099816125/

Chapters for this episode are: 
0:00 Welcome 
1:08 Brent Futures
6:25 Refinery margins
11:43 This week in trading 
17:13 Macro market news 
26:29 "Googling oil:" world oil news 
34:36 Trade idea of the week 
39:17 Poll results, gold prices, and outro

Onyx Capital Group is proud to launch a brand new show; Macro Monday's with James Brodie - Trends, Risk & Analysis. 

On today's show James discusses recent strong economic data out of the US, OIS pricing and the US dollar strength. 

He also dives into what's happening with gold, silver and equity markets. It seems like tech stocks are crashing at the moment, with Nvidia -21.8 from ATH and Tesla down 49.4% from its all-time high. 

James walks us through recent US unemployment data and lets us know the risks to watch for the week ahead. 

Tune in to World of Oil Derivatives tomorrow to hear James discuss these trends further. 

If you would like to connect with any of your host, James Brodie. You can follow him X (formally Twitter) @jamesrbrodie

Or, follow him on LinkedIn by clicking the link below: 
James Brodie:  https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamesbrodiecmt/

Chapters for this episode are: 
0:00 Welcome 
1:35 Economic data
6:13 OIS pricing
7:54 US dollar strength
11:50 Equities
14:22 Gold and silver
18:16 Employment data
20:09 The week ahead
22:02 Volatility

Off the back of another tense week with the recent attacks by Iran on Israel, Greg, Jorge, James and Martha discuss the impact (or, lack thereof) the event had on oil prices. As a bonus for this episode, Jorge and Martha will provide a trade idea each! 
There was a muted response for Brent futures, with prices oscillating around $90/bbl, opening on Monday at $90/bbl and closing at $90.50/bbl. Looking at the CFTC report, the market is quite long - especially by managed by money players.
The refinery margins have increased week on week, but mostly due to a weakened dated crude market. Gasoline continues to rally after a bit of a dip last week. The European gasoline market seems stubbornly long.
James’ one to watch this week is the continued dollar strength and higher U.S. yields - which are breaking equity market momentum, with gold making continued new all-time highs.
Aside from the major story of the Iran retaliation attack on Israel, in our Googling Oil segment, the team discus the new regulations in Nigeria which will require oil producers to sell crude to domestic refineries.
Martha’s trade idea this week is propane - selling the LST/FEI in May. Jorge also shares his trade idea, the WTI to Dubai Spread - which Jorge thinks will widen as Dubai crude powers ahead in Asia.
You can watch the LST/FEI trade idea in further detail here: https://youtu.be/8sKmB_ymD8I
If you would like to connect with any of our hosts on LinkedIn, please click on the hyperlinks below:
Greg Newman: https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/
Jorge Montepeque: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jorge-montepeque-38410bb6/
James Brodie: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamesbrodiecmt/
Martha Dowding: https://www.linkedin.com/in/martha-dowding-ab84801a6/
Chapters for this episode are: 
0:00 Welcome 
1:16 This week in trading 
9:12 Macro market news 
15:20 CTA positioning
16:49 Refinery margins 
19:38 "Googling oil:" world oil news 
24:11 Trade idea of the week 
28:47 Poll results 
29:48 "Fiscal entrapment"

Prices were around $89/bbl last week, but since then there's been a noticeable uptick - not quite reaching $92/bbl and oscillating around $90/bbl since. Refinery margins have weakened, with refined products struggling - with the exception of gasoline. Gasoil is extremely weak, with poor distillate performance in all regions. 
EBOB has seen greater strength with the market keen to buy into last week's weakness. Looking to our macro news segment, James unpacks the latest headlines shaking up financial markets. A significant move ensued yesterday (Wednesday 10th April) following yet another robust CPI print. Notably, 2-year bond yields surged a staggering 23 basis points, marking a substantial 4.6% increase on the day. 
Concurrently, the dollar strengthened by over 1%, sending equities futures tumbling by 1.4% on the open. The Federal Reserve finds itself in a delicate position after adopting a dovish stance in Q4 2023, with the Overnight Index Swap (OIS) now pricing in just 42 basis points of cuts this year. As commodities face headwinds amidst tighter financial conditions and a stronger dollar, James, Greg and Martha analyse the implications for investors and the broader economic landscape. 
The trade idea for this week is to short the May/Jun C3 CP spread. You can watch this trade idea in further detail here: https://youtu.be/8N2bNTOYOqc
If you would like to connect with any of our hosts on LinkedIn, please click on the hyperlinks below:
Greg Newman: https://www.linkedin.com/in/oilderivatives/
Martha Dowding: https://www.linkedin.com/in/martha-dowding-ab84801a6/
James Brodie: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamesbrodiecmt/


Chapters for this episode are:
0:00 Welcome 
1:43 This week in trading 
5:58 Macro market news 
25:00 Refinery margins 
34:04 Ones to watch
41:43 Poll results and outro