OptimisticBear Unknown

In this episode we discuss the idea that societies, and economies, are governed by both short and very long cycles of social mood and sentiment. If this theory of cycles (like those proposed by Kondratieff) are correct, then there is very little policy makers can do one way or the other to change economic outcomes. The grandiose visions laid out by the US President’s state of the union address are irrelevant to the economic and psychological prosperity of the nation. The ideas offered by the President’s political opponents are likewise irrelevant for improving the economy. These generational cycles also imply that the cause of the recession and “financial crisis” is deeper than a lack of regulations or risky investment behavior. It was the general bullish attitude of society which inevitably led to lax regulation and excessive risk taking. The next time there is broad bullish sentiment throughout society (80 or 90 years hence) then regulation will inevitably become lax and risk taking will again reach excesses.

We talk about how NO political leaders are championing the idea of state or municipal bankruptcies as a method to cure long-term budget problems. There are NO political leaders suggesting that the major financial institutions like CityGroup should just go bust and that bond-holders and depositors should lose their money. Instead, policy makers whine about deficits, stimulus, education and social safety nets.

Lastly, we explore the fact the Bitcoin is now reaching a new high, in alignment with other markets, with bearish implications.

In this episode Steve Keen shares his knowledge of economics to not only debunk the reverence paid to economists by policy makers but to explain that the titans of the economic theory are misunderstood. Keynes wasn’t the advocate for stimulus spending as many assume and Karl Marx actually had a lot of great insights that are conveniently swept under the carpet. Steve goes on to provide a tutorial on the life and ideas of his hero Hyman Minsky, explaining how this was one of the few who understood the sheer unpredictability that underlies all economics. We also discuss the how there is nothing special about the Australian, Canadian, or Chinese economies other than the fact that they have been able to breathe new life into their economies by blowing bigger bubbles. The end result is inevitable: global deflation.

You can read about Steve’s book “Debunking Economics” here:
http://debunkingeconomics.com/

You can read Steve’s blog posts on economics here:
http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/

In this episode we discuss how Iceland’s decision to simply allow its banks to go bust may have been the wiser choice. Iceland’s economy is now growing again and the economy is re-setting itself. By contrast, nations like Ireland and Greece are taking on even MORE debt (in the form of bail-outs) to prop up their economies yet there is no end in sight to their economic demise. Sometimes it is better to just let the dead wood die and get started with a clean slate. We also discuss how currencies would function in a truly free market and what role, if any, central banks should have in such an environment.

In this episode Robert Gignac offers advice on financial planning. Be careful to choose financial advisors who don’t have an vested interest in selling particular products. It is also important to find advice from people who really explain the various products and options without assuming that consumers understand the different between annuities, dividends or tax-free retirement funds. Robert explores how your goals and state of mind are the key to real happiness. Just having a lot of cash doesn’t inevitably make one happier. We also discuss the differences in health care systems and investment options for Canada and the US, sharing our own experiences with each system.

In this episode Patrick Killelea joins us to do some crystal ball gazing for 2011. Tune in to hear predictions for rising interest rates, a declining Euro, and crashing stock prices in Asia and America. Patrick predicts that affluent areas will see significant price erosion for 2011 and that the National Association of Realtors will declare that it is a great time to buy. The Optimistic Bear posits that America is embarking on a lengthy odyssey with deflation, much the same as Japan has experienced, and that 2011 will be one of the down years taking asset prices to new lows. Europe will experience a bail-out too far, where the political will to arrange yet a bail-out for another distressed state falters.

You can check out Patrick’s economic news site here (as well as his great forums for discussing real-estate and the economy):
http://patrick.net

If you are interested in deflation, check out the Deflation Study Group on LinkedIn (open to all LinkedIn members):
http://linkd.in/deflationsg

You can also listen to my in-depth Deflation 101 podcast.
http://bit.ly/deflation101

In this episode housing blogger Patrick Killelea explains why real-estate prices still have a long ways to fall in the tonier communities. Prices fell faster in poor areas where people live paycheque to paycheque. The more well heeled home-owner has assets to burn through, and it takes them longer to get desperate enough to take losses. Patrick also talks about how the primary problem is the masses of bad debt, out of relation to incomes, which still hasn’t been written down throughout the economy. In Patrick’s view, the cozy relationships between banks and government have made the financial crisis what it is. The only thing government efforts to subsidize housing (or anything else, like education) accomplish is to drive up prices.

You can check out Patrick’s economic news site here (as well as his great forums for discussing real-estate and the economy):
http://patrick.net

If you are interested in deflation, check out the Deflation Study Group on LinkedIn (open to all LinkedIn members):
http://linkd.in/deflationsg

You can also listen to my in-depth Deflation 101 podcast.
http://bit.ly/deflation101