UBS On-Air: Market Moves Client Strategy Office

This week Jason ‘connects the dots’ to make sense of market performance, this in the wake of last week’s inflation data, along with the outcome of the June FOMC meeting. We also consider emerging geopolitical risks, and upcoming macro factors. Plus, share CIO’s current investment outlook and positioning recommendations. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

China’s May data dump showed weaker-than-expected industrial production, despite earlier reports of stronger exports. Domestic retail sales were stronger, slightly distorted by the timing of holidays. Restaurant sales were stronger, as people seem inclined to spend on having fun.

Yesterday’s US producer price inflation numbers added to a general sense of disinflation. However, the lower inflation reported in consumer and producer prices will not be fully experienced by consumers. The slowing fantasy price of owners’ equivalent rent does not affect real world spending power. Seasonal adjustments deliberately distort reality, and so disinflation here does not change consumers’ inflation experiences.

This week Shane highlights a slate of rulings expected to be delivered in June by the Supreme Court, updates on the campaign trail (including recent and upcoming primaries), reflects on former President Trump’s visit to Capitol Hill - plus, recaps the annual Congressional baseball game! Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisors, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

On this week’s episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard covers a range of topics, including a potential timeline for higher for longer rates in the US, the gathering of world leaders at the G7 Summit, how the law of acceleration will change the world and economies over the next decade, and more.

The Federal Reserve did nothing on rates. Investors have desperately sought additional guidance on policy, putting the fabled dot plots in focus. These black smudges on a piece of paper are really not that helpful. More Fed members think that there will be two cuts this year than anything else. Given the disinflation forces in the economy, several of those who suggested one cut likely give a high probability to two cuts.