13 min
Recession Predictions: Why They’re Often Wrong, and Why the Narrative Continues to Switch by Anna Cottrell BiggerPockets Daily
-
- Investing
On any given day, depending on who you ask, we are either years away from the faintest possibility of a recession or about to enter one. Economists have made several dizzying U-turns in their predictions over the past couple of years, with the latest narrative claiming a recession is highly unlikely in 2024 and subsequent years.
That’s a stark change in tone from only a year ago. A poll of 70 economists by The Wall Street Journal in January 2023 put the odds of a recession at 61%.
Yet at least one independent economist, James F. Smith, dissented and put the odds of a recession at a minuscule 1%. We already know who was right in 2023, but what was the reasoning behind the confident 1% prognosis?
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
On any given day, depending on who you ask, we are either years away from the faintest possibility of a recession or about to enter one. Economists have made several dizzying U-turns in their predictions over the past couple of years, with the latest narrative claiming a recession is highly unlikely in 2024 and subsequent years.
That’s a stark change in tone from only a year ago. A poll of 70 economists by The Wall Street Journal in January 2023 put the odds of a recession at 61%.
Yet at least one independent economist, James F. Smith, dissented and put the odds of a recession at a minuscule 1%. We already know who was right in 2023, but what was the reasoning behind the confident 1% prognosis?
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
13 min