DHUnplugged #695: Fresh Frenzy DHUnplugged Podcast

Fed in Focus - FOMC Rate Decision Wednesday.

Reddit IPO Frenzy!

Inflation - definitely not going away.

Announcing - A New Closest to The Pin

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!





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Warm Up
- A New CTP Announced
- No Show Next week - business meetings out of town
- A not so surprising result in the Russian Elections
- An important change to stock trade settlements is coming

Market Update
- Fed in Focus - FOMC Rate Decision Wednesday
- Reddit IPO Frenzy
- Inflation - definitely not going away
- AI Frenzy - Culd Call This DHAI Unplugged - so much AI news to discuss
- Yield Frenzy

PPI Release
- After  a HOT CPI, PPI Comes in Hotter
- 0.6% on the core - but only 1.6% YoY
- The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.6 percent in February.
- Prices for final demand goods advanced 1.2 percent, and the index for final demand services moved up 0.3 percent.
- Prices for final demand advanced 1.6 percent for the 12 months ended in February.
- Markets didn't know what to do with this on Friday.



PPI MoM




Company Stats - Recession?
- According to FactSet: During Dec-March earnings calls, 47 cited the term “recession” during their earnings calls for the fourth quarter.
-- This number is below the 5-year average of 85 and below the 10-year average of 61.
- This quarter will mark the lowest number of S&P 500 companies citing “recession” on earnings calls for a quarter since Q4 2021
Companies Citing Recession
% of Companies
Reddit
- IPO slated to be live sometime this week (March 21)
- 5X Oversubscribed
- Reddit began sending invitations to users to participate in the IPO based on one of two measurements of engagement on the site: either the number of actions they’ve taken as a moderator of a forum on the platform (also known as a “subreddit”) or their “karma” score, a figure that indicates a user’s contributions and reputation among other users on the site.
- Reddit plans to list 22 million shares at a price between $31 and $34, according to the latest version of the IPO prospectus it filed Monday with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The company stands to take in between $473.6 million and $519.4 million from the sale of roughly 15.3 million shares.
- Valuation > $6 billion
- Question???? Is Reddit profitable? NO -  However, the company has been substantially growing revenue in the past few years.
---- Reddit's total revenue in 2023 was $804 million, up 21% from $666 million in 2022.
----- Reddit's net loss for 2023 narrowed to $90.8 million.

Yields - 10 YR
- Highest level of 2024
- technically breaking out - if Fed moves a bot more hawkish - 4.50% is next test
Yields
Japan Yields
- The Bank of Japan is set to raise its key interest rate for the first time in 17 years on Tuesday following its two-day monetary policy meeting, Kyodo reported.
- The BOJ will raise the short-term rate to the 0%-0.1% range, the report said. The development reflects growing confidence among policymakers that a virtuous cycle of wage growth and price hikes is in motion following this year’s labor-management pay negotiations
- RAISING TO ZERO!

Global Rates - Who Will CUT First?
First Mover?
ELON
- Increasing prices on Model Y by $1,000
--- Stock moves up by 6%
- Goldman Downgrades - Perhaps this is why stock moved up - another bug downgrade - stock in the toilet - nowhere else to go
--- SpaceX is building a network of hundreds of spy satellites under a classified contract with a U.S. intelligence agency, five sources familiar with the program said, demonstrating deepening ties between billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk's space company and national security agencies.

Elon - Ketamine