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The biggest trends to watch in the next 5 years
Guest: Amit Lodha, Fidelity.Identifying key global trends in business and investing requires an overview of the world that few investors can achieve. But with an army of Fidelity analysts at his back, and a truly global focus, Amit Lodha is uniquely positioned to spot and act on these trends. When searching for these trends, Amit wants to find keywords - what he calls his "anomaly watch". Six years ago, the keywords popping up on his anomaly watch were "personalisation" and "simplification". Those trends led him to investments in companies like Facebook, Apple, and Google.More recently, the words that keep popping up on the anomaly watch are “collaboration” and “decentralisation”. In this episode of The Rules of Investing podcast, he explains the significance of these trends for the years ahead. We also hear about the time he met legendary investor Peter Lynch, and the lesson Peter shared with him.
3 early warning signs it’s time to change your view
When a stock has been in your portfolio for a while, it’s easy to get attached to the position and ‘anchor’ yourself to old information. In recent years, Simon Shields, Principal at Monash Investors, has shown repeatedly his willingness to change his view. He’s made money on both the long side and the short side on stocks like Kogan, Qantas, and Corporate Travel Management. So when I recently sat down with him for the latest Rules of Investing podcast, naturally, I wanted to know how he went about it. He pointed to three key “early warning signs” that he looks for that indicate it could be time to reduce a position:A spike in short interestAn unexpected downgrade by the company (not by analysts)When a company fails to meet their ‘signposts’ that are expected along the way.He expands on all these points in this episode. He also shares an under-the-radar small cap that’s perfectly positioned for an outstanding 2021, and he nominates a controversial stock as one he’d hold if the market were closed.
Sell-offs are a buying opportunity. Don’t get off the train
Investors remain nervous after the massive sell off in February and March, but Matthew Kidman from Centennial Asset Management says that any sell off (such as we've seen in the week since this was recorded) should be treated as a buying opportunity."If the market does come away in September, use it as a buying opportunity. Now is not the time to get off the train. Now is the time to buckle in, ride a few bumps out, and we're gonna go again."In this episode of The Rules of Investing podcast, we discuss the curious origins of Buy Hold Sell, why investors should treat any sell off as a buying opportunity, and we get his view on a range of Aussie small caps, including OohMedia, Adairs, and iCar Asia.
What the ‘smart money’ is saying about Australia's future
Guest: Jay Sivapalan, Head of Australia Fixed Income, Janus Henderson GroupFixed income investors have long held a reputation in markets as the ‘smart money’. With a focus on stability, income, and capital protect, and a propensity for complicated formulas and spreadsheets, fixed income investors often have a better idea of what’s happening in markets than just about anyone else. So, when Jay Sivapalan, one of the most respected fixed income managers in the country talks about the future of the Australian economy, interest rates, and housing, you can be sure there’ll be some outstanding insights. This conversation was no exception.In this week’s episode of The Rules of Investing podcast, we hear why investing is so different today to when he joined the industry 20 years ago, and he shares his views on what could lie ahead over the next 12 months.
Did Buffett really change his mind on gold?
Guest: Jordan Eliseo, Perth Mint.Headlines in recent weeks have touted an about-turn by Warren Buffett as he finally bought gold after years of criticising. But is that really what happened?In this week’s episode of The Rules of Investing podcast, I spoke to gold expert Jordan Eliseo, Manager of Listed Products and Investment Research at the Perth Mint. He points out that it was a gold mining company (Barrick Gold), not physical gold itself that Berkshire Hathaway purchased.“They’ve bought a gold mining equity, which, to me, is entirely consistent with their mandate. It’s not surprising to me that they’d buy a gold mining company.”We also discuss gold's strong performance this year and whether it can continue, and he shares some indicators that should tell us when the bull market in gold is getting long in the tooth.
Tapping into research from the world’s best investors
Guest: Sam Granger, Totus CapitalWhether you’re investing in ASX small caps, global large caps, or somewhere in between, one challenge that all investors face is how to narrow down a huge universe of potential companies into a manageable list for research. Sam Granger, Portfolio Manager at Totus Capital, knows this challenge all too well. With a small investment team, the Totus High Conviction Fund covers small and large cap companies both in Australia and overseas. One strategy he uses to narrow down the field, is the draw on the research of other great investors.“We always do our own research, and I’d never buy a stock just because they bought it. But why not focus on businesses that other great investors have already said they like? Apple’s a great example. Buffett bought Apple in 2016… You could’ve made three or four times your money just by following Buffett into Apple.”In this episode, we discuss why he doesn't engage in short selling, and he shares two stocks that appear to be underappreciated by the market.