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With the 2024 election only five months away, polls abound. But since 2016, polls have had somewhat of a bad rap, and many Americans have become skeptical of their reliability.

David Dutwin, senior vice president of strategic initiatives at NORC at the University of Chicago, said we’re thinking about polls all wrong. On the show today, Dutwin explains what polls can and can’t tell us, how to spot a high-quality poll and what kind of role polling should play in our understanding of elections. Plus, what’s keeping pollsters up at night.



Then, we’ll talk about how the Joe Biden administration is addressing an issue that’s top of mind, according to a new Gallup survey: immigration. And, a Half Full/Half Empty update on the job market.

Later, one listener’s small-scale solution to the Big Food problem, and a divisive grammar debate. Plus, a listener was wrong about the meaning of “vibecession.”

Here’s everything we talked about today:


“What Can Election 2024 Polls Really Tell Us?” from Scientific American
“Polling in 2024” from Reuters
View the latest national polls from FiveThirtyEight
“Public Opinion Polling Basics” from Pew Research Center
“We still don’t know much about this election — except that the media and pollsters blew it again” from The Washington Post
“US Job Openings Fall to Lowest Since 2021 in Broad Cooldown” from Bloomberg  
“Immigration Named Top U.S. Problem for Third Straight Month” from Gallup
“Biden issues new executive action: Much of southern border to close at midnight” from Politico 
“Biden prepares an order that would shut down asylum requests at US-Mexico border” from The Associated Press
“Kyla Scanlon wants to remind us that ‘people are the economy’” from Marketplace

We love to hear from you. Send your questions and comments to makemesmart@marketplace.org or leave us a voicemail at 508-U-B-SMART.

An April labor report released today shows that hiring, quitting and layoffs didn’t change much from the month before. In this episode, why no news is a sign we’re headed toward a pretty strong (as opposed to a once-in-a-lifetime) labor market. Plus, a traffic report of sorts: “supercommuter” rates rise, e-cargo bikes race ahead in popularity, and air travel isn’t luxurious anymore.

Markets end up; job openings down in April; Paramount outlines alternative to Skydance merger; Toyota recalls 100,000 cars.

Job openings total 8.1 million, again; Bath & Body Works forecasts subdued sales; Volvo launches first EV battery passport; E-Trade considers kicking Keith Gill off platform, WSJ reports.

A federal appeals court panel has suspended a competition to award grants to businesses that are majority-owned by Black women. The panel ruled the program, run by Atlanta-based venture capital firm Fearless Fund, is likely discriminatory. We’ll parse the details. Then, Shein is looking to go public in London rather than New York. Why is that? And the price of Forever stamps are about to go up yet again.

From the BBC World Service: In India’s elections, early signs are pointing to a majority for a right-wing alliance of parties, led by India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi. It won’t be a landslide win, however. What does that mean for policy and the markets? And later in the program: Nigeria’s government says it’s made a new offer to try to bring the country’s general strike to a close.