8 episodes
Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova Pushkin
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- News
Risky Business is a weekly podcast about making better decisions. The hosts, Maria Konnikova and Nate Silver, are both journalists who moonlight as high-stakes poker players. On Risky Business, they bring their analytical framework to everything from politics to poker to personal decisions.
Maria has a PhD in psychology and is the author of several books including, most recently, The Biggest Bluff. While researching the book, she inadvertently became a professional poker player, with over $500,000 in tournament winnings. She is a PokerStars Team Pro.
Nate is the founder and former editor-in-chief of FiveThirtyEight, and one of the country’s leading election forecasters. He has over $800,000 in lifetime poker tournament winnings and his forthcoming book, On the Edge, is about gambling and risk.
Risky Business is a co-production of iHeart Media and Pushkin Industries.
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Nate’s Election Model, the Trouble with Insurance, and How People Get Risk Wrong
This week on Risky Business, Nate and Maria unveil Nate’s 2024 election model. (The forecast is bad news for Maria.) Also, they explain what insurance industry troubles tell us about the market for risk. And they discuss some key mistakes people make when thinking about risk.
Further Reading:
“Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast” by Nate Silver and Eli McKown-Dawson
“Climate Change Has Hit Home Insurance. Is Health Insurance Next?” from the Wall Street Journal
“The Home Insurance Crunch: See What’s Happening in Your State” from the New York Times
For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:
“The Leap” from Maria Konnikova
“Silver Bulletin” from Nate Silver
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information. -
Snap Elections, Global Warming, and Maria’s Favorite Hot Sauce
This week on Risky Business, Nate and Maria discuss the reasoning behind Macron’s decision to hold early elections in France, how heat waves could help communicate the reality of climate change, and what we can learn from the impending sriracha shortage. The theme that ties it all together: How to think about long-term risk.
Further Reading:
“The stakes are high in Macron’s gamble” from the Financial Times
“What A Sriracha Shortage Teaches Us About Supply Chains” from Forbes
For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:
“The Leap” from Maria Konnikova
“Silver Bulletin” from Nate Silver
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information. -
Lifetime Terms, Lifetime Bans, and the Return of Roaring Kitty
This week on Risky Business, Nate and Maria discuss whether Supreme Court Justice Sonia Sotomayor should retire, the perils of sports betting among professional athletes, and what the return of Roaring Kitty means for traditional market analysis.
Further Reading:
“Sonia Sotomayor Should Retire Now” from The Atlantic
“Should Sonia Sotomayor Retire?” from Slate
“MLB bans Padres’ Tucupita Marcano permanently for betting on baseball” from the NYT
“Lifetime bans and careers in tatters – recent sports betting scandals show how fringe players are vulnerable” from CBC
For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:
“The Leap” from Maria Konnikova
“Silver Bulletin” from Nate Silver
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information. -
Mistakes and Unknowns: Election Polls, Poker Tournaments, and the NBA Finals
This week on Risky Business, Nate gives his analysis of what Trump’s guilty verdict may mean for the election, Maria shares the biggest mistakes she’s seen at the World Series of Poker so far, and Nate reveals an interesting ripple in the sports betting ecosystem ahead of the NBA Finals.
For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:
“The Leap” from Maria Konnikova
“Silver Bulletin” from Nate Silver
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information. -
WSOP Kickoff, Crypto ETFs, and Airfare Refunds
Nate and Maria are in Vegas for the first week of the World Series of Poker. On today’s show, they share their top tips for acing the World Series, explain the politics behind last week’s approval of a new kind of crypto ETF, and unpack new rules for airline delays.
Further Reading:
“SEC Unexpectedly Expedites ETH ETF w/ Eric Balchunas” from Galaxy Brains
“Biden-Harris Administration Announces Final Rule Requiring Automatic Refunds of Airline Tickets and Ancillary Service Fees” from USDOT
To Buy Into Maria’s WSOP Action:
Visit “StakeKings”
Or “PokerStake”
For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:
“The Leap” from Maria Konnikova
“Silver Bulletin” from Nate Silver
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information. -
A Backup for Biden
Nate and Maria start with something light: p(doom) and the possibility that AI will bring about the end of life as we know it. Then, Nate breaks down the news about the presidential debates and makes a shocking recommendation to the Democratic Party. And – most importantly – our hosts preview the upcoming World Series of Poker in Vegas.
Further Reading:
“OpenAI: Exodus” by Zvi Mowshowitz
“Democrats Have a Better Option Than Biden” by Ezra Klein
“21 Tips for Acing the World Series of Poker” by Nate Silver
To Buy Into Maria’s WSOP Action:
Visit “StakeKings”
Or “PokerStake”
For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:
“The Leap” from Maria Konnikova
“Silver Bulletin” from Nate Silver
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.