The Disciplined Investor Andrew Horowitz - Host

Kicking off the MegaCap Earnings - some concerning items.



Rate Cut Bets Fizzle



Yields Keep Rising



The VIX – Hovering around 16



And our Guest – Johns Williams from ShadowStats



















John Williams, founder and publisher of ShadowStats.com.   He received an A.B. in Economics, cum laude, from Dartmouth College, and an M.B.A. from Dartmouth‘s Amos Tuck School of Business Administration, where he was named an Edward Tuck Scholar.   During his career as a consulting economist in the last 33 years, he has worked with individuals as well with as Fortune 500 companies.



Out of necessity, he became a specialist in government economic reporting.   An early client's large manufacturer of commercial airplanes had developed a model for predicting revenue passenger miles, a primary sales forecasting tool.   Heavily dependent on the GNP (now GDP) out of the Department of Commerce, the model suddenly stopped working, and the client asked Williams to fix it.   The GNP numbers were faulty, he corrected them (official reporting was similarly revised a couple of years later), and the model worked again, at least for a while, until changes in GNP methodology eventually made the underlying data worthless.



That began a lengthy process exploring the history and nature of economic reporting and interviewing key people involved in the system from the early days of government reporting through the present.   For a number of years, he conducted surveys among business economists as to the quality of government statistics.   The vast majority thought it was pretty bad, with survey results leading to 1989 front-page stories in the New York Times and Investors Daily, considerable coverage in the broadcast media and a joint meeting with representatives of all the U.S. government‘s statistical agencies.



Nonetheless, the quality of government reporting has deteriorated sharply in the last couple of decades.   Problems include changes in reporting methodologies that have pushed headline economic and inflation results outside the realm of real-world or common experience.



Over the decades, Williams has given thousands of presentations on the U.S. economic outlook and on approaches to analyzing economic data, to clients "large and small” including talks with members of the business, banking, government, press, academic, brokerage and investment communities, as well as having provided testimony before the U.S. Congress.



Public response to a 2004 series of articles on the quality of government statistics was so strong that he started Shadow Government Statistics, a newsletter first published on ShadowStats.com in 2004.   That weekly commentary is published as part of his economic consulting services.

Find out more about ShadowStats.com







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Looking for style diversification? More information on the TDI Managed Growth Strategy - HERE







Stocks mentioned in this episode: (GLD), (SLV), (MSFT), (META)

Herky-Jerky market action continues.



Powell puts down the gavel.



Tariffs enter the picture again



And our Guest this week - Steve Selengut talking Retirement Money Secrets and The Biggest Mistakes People make investing.











 







Steve Selengut, a 40+ year professional investment manager/advisor/RIA/IAR whose current adventure is coaching both individuals and other advisors in creating income independence for themselves and their clients.



I’m also promoting my 2nd book, Retirement Money Secrets.  



Steve was a private investment manager for 44 years, personally managing around 325 individual portfolios in the USA and abroad. One of a very few investment book authors who have directly managed other people's money.





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Looking for style diversification? More information on the TDI Managed Growth Strategy - HERE







Stocks mentioned in this episode: (NFLX)

What commodities look attractive here and why?



Inflation CPI reports - just not looking good



Major banks kick off earnings season..



Guest: Robbie Miles, CFA - Allianz Global











 







Robbie Miles, CFA, ACA - Portfolio Manager (Director) in the Global Thematic Equity team, London



Robbie is a Portfolio Manager at Allianz Global Investors (AGI) with over 12 years of investment experience. He is the lead portfolio manager of two global equity strategies, Positive Change and Food Security, having previously co-run the Global Sustainability fund. He is a Director within the Global Thematic team, which combines bottom-up stock research with thematic analysis.



Robbie joined AGI in 2014, spending 4 of those years in San Francisco, leading the firm’s sustainable investment integration process in the US. Before joining Allianz Global Investors, he qualified as a Chartered Accountant with PwC. Robbie has a first class degree in Environment & Business from the University of Leeds. He is a CFA charterholder.





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Looking for style diversification? More information on the TDI Managed Growth Strategy - HERE







Stocks mentioned in this episode: (OIL), (DBC), (AAPL), (C), (JPM)

Gold hitting new highs – and oil is on the rise



Easy policy over in Japan  While China is stimulating



Big employment report moves markets



Guest David Gaffen – Editor at Reuters.















David Gaffen is the U.S. breaking news companies editor at Reuters, where he has worked for 14 years. He also did stints as the U.S. energy editor and U.S. deputy markets editor and has been a business journalist for more than 20 years.



In that time he has covered the 2008 financial crisis, the oil-market meltdown in 2020, and was nominated for a Loeb Award for a series of articles on the growth of stock buybacks in 2015. He lives in New York with his family.

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Looking to invest in The Disciplined Investor Managed Growth Strategy?

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Stocks Mentioned in the Episode: (DIS), (SBUX), (BA), (AMC), (GME), (TSLA), (MSFT)

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Bang Zoom to the Moon – Bitcoin ramps to new highs - Then again so do equities.



Goldilocks – SHE'S BAAAACK



And our Guest today – my good friend Tom Nelson – SVP for Franklin Templeton Investments.















Tom Nelson is a senior vice president and head of asset allocation portfolio management for Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions. He is a member of the Investment Strategy & Research Committee.



He is a portfolio manager of a number of funds offered for sale in various jurisdictions. He is lead portfolio manager of the Franklin NextStep Fund series, the Franklin VolSmart Allocation VIP Fund and numerous model portfolio programs. He is portfolio manager of Franklin LifeSmart Retirement Target Funds, the Franklin Fund Allocator Series available in the United States and several custom institutional portfolio mandates.



Mr. Nelson joined Franklin Templeton in 2007 and co-founded the firm's quantitative research services group upon joining the company. He moved to Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions in 2009. Prior to working at Franklin Templeton, Mr. Nelson worked for Bloomberg LP from 1991 to 2007, where he was most recently manager of the Americas market specialist teams.



Mr. Nelson holds a B.S. in accounting from the University of Delaware. He is a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) charterholder and a Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst (CAIA) charterholder. He is a member of the CFA Institute, the New York Society of Security Analysts and the Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst Association.





Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/









Looking to invest in The Disciplined Investor Managed Growth Strategy?

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Stocks Mentioned in the Episode: (GLD), (MSFT), (AAPL), (OIL), (NVDA)

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The Fed – Is Powell throwing in the towel?



AI – Profits spreading – lots of money to be made.



Apple – dragged down by a new lawsuit.



90 years of evidence, this week's guest says this is the key asset class to own..











Paul Merriman is a nationally recognized authority on mutual funds, index investing, asset allocation and both buy-and-hold and active management strategies. Now retired from Merriman, the Seattle-based investment advisory firm he founded in 1983, he is dedicated to educating investors, young and old, through weekly articles at Marketwatch.com, and via free eBooks, podcasts, articles, recommendations for mutual funds, ETFs, 401(k) plans and more, at his website.



In his retirement, Paul remains fervently committed to educating and empowering investors. In 2012, he wrote and published the “How To Invest” series, distilling his decades of expertise into concise investment books targeted to specific audiences “First-Time Investor: Grow and Protect Your Money,” “101 Investment Decisions Guaranteed to Change Your Financial Future,” and “Get Smart or Get Screwed: How To Select The Best and Get The Most From Your Financial Advisor.”



Paul is also the author of four previous books on personal investing, including Financial Fitness Forever: 5 Steps To More Money, Less Risk and More Peace of Mind (McGraw Hill, Oct. 2011). The book was part of the “Financial Fitness Kit” offered on the TV show, “Financial Fitness After 50,” created exclusively to raise funds for local Public Broadcasting Service (PBS) stations.

Check out the FREE Book - 12 Simple Ways to Supercharge Your Retirement







Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/









Looking to invest in The Disciplined Investor Managed Growth Strategy?

Click HERE for the virtual tour.





Stocks Menti0ned in the Episode: (ORCL), (MSFT), (AAPL), (MU), (NVDA), (VBR)

Follow @andrewhorowitz