Palisades Gold Radio is the largest online discussion platform for junior mining globally. Each week, host Collin Kettell interviews top experts in the energy and mining space to discuss macro trends and identify strong investment ideas. With over 1,000,000 views in just three years and videos viewed from over 150 countries around the world, Palisades Gold Radio is the best place for top quality mining content. Guests have included Robert Kiyosaki, Don Coxe, Rick Rule, Eric Sprott, Doug Casey, Frank Holmes, Marc Faber, Jim Rogers, and much more. Visit us at www.palisadesradio.ca
Chase Taylor: Long-Term Debt Cycle Coming to an End
Tom welcomes a new guest Chase Taylor to the show. Chase is a macro strategist and editor of Pinecone Macro Research. He came up with the name Pinecone based on how pine trees take a very long-term approach to growth.
Most investors are focused on short-term quick investing methods. However, the long-term approach is often the most powerful. The longer a cycle the fewer people are likely to be paying attention. We're near the end of the debt cycle and reaching a turning point where we have to inflate it away. We also have a capital cycle where commodities have become way undervalued. What is coming will change everything.
He notes that the recent economic data is skewed due to the rapid recession and recovery. The year-over-year data will take a while longer to stabilize.
Chase notes that investors and institutions are just beginning to notice that inflation is exploding higher than we were told to expect.
The outlook for the dollar continues to be dependent on the monetary policies of other countries. He feels the dollar is likely to move down over the medium term. In addition, there are likely to be problems with energy in the United States.
Green energy is creating many crises which we are witnessing. The decisions made over the last ten years have had serious consequences and starving the fossil fuel industry of capital is not a good solution in a world that requires energy.
Chase discusses the impact of climate cycles and weather on the economy and how he uses these to his advantage. Natural gas inventories are on the low side and there could be issues should the U.S. experience any polar vortices.
China is set to artificially control coal prices and this could result in production issues.
During periods of high inflation, gold becomes a much more important place to store wealth. Energy prices will affect everything. Metals should do well in the near to mid-term. Keep an eye on the Fed as higher rates could change this forecast.
He discusses how many of the miners look very good right now.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:35 - Background & Pinecone4:24 - Very Long Cycles6:32 - Capital/Debt Cycles9:18 - Rates of Change11:30 - Supply/Demand13:23 - Inflation YOY16:52 - Fed Rates & Debt18:40 - Dollar Outlook20:27 - Green Energy & Risks24:08 - Weather Cycles28:15 - Energy Inventories31:50 - China & Coal35:10 - China & Crypto37:12 - Nuclear Energy42:54 - Energy & Metals46:10 - Golds Importance48:35 - Trading Timeframes51:18 - Company Valuations53:23 - Corn53:50 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
* The long-term approach to investing.* Recent economic data will take time to stabilize.* Green energy implications and energy risks.* Energy cycles, climate, and metal prices.
Guest Links:Website: https://www.pineconemacro.com/Twitter: https://www.twitter.com/pineconemacro
Chase Taylor is a macro trader and the global macro strategist and editor at Pinecone Macro Research. Chase launched PMR in 2018, where he provides unique macro insights and analysis in a weekly and monthly research product.
Chase does not come from Wall Street or business school, but the military. He prides himself on being a self-taught macro thinker and practitioner. Chase started in the Air Force working on B-1 Bombers, but spent most of his career as a geospatial intelligence analyst, working on strategic and tactical intelligence problem sets. He has also worked in acquisitions at a research laboratory focused on roc...
Jeffrey Christian: Gold and Inflation
Tom welcomes back Jeffrey Christian Managing Partner of the CPM Group to discuss the economy and the gold market.
Jeffrey discusses his recent presentation at the Silver Symposium and how his opinions differ. He notes that all currencies are fiat and that gold's value is determined by fiat. Much in the same way that currencies are valued by national central banks.
He doesn't believe that inflation is showing that strong of a signal. They are watching the bond and equity markets closely along with debt levels. There is a lot of bad things occurring politically and economically.
Real estate prices are often unsupported especially when contrasted with incomes. Back in 2004-2005 they watched the housing market pump and expressed concerns. During that period they had investors selling real estate and buying gold and they are beginning to see that behavior now.
He argues that gold doesn't correlate well with low inflation rates. He is expecting a deflationary period coming over the next year.
Jeffrey discusses why central banks are more price sensitive to high gold prices. Bankers are more sensitive to overpriced assets whereas investors often pile in during price moves. Investors also have different time horizons while banks have longer-term expectations and are not necessarily looking to sell.
He discusses Canada's thinking when it comes to not holding gold and why they instead prefer to back their currency with US Dollars.
Jeffrey discusses lithium, nickel, and manganese and their importance in electrification. Capital availability is a problem in this sector. So how additional mines will be built is unknown especially considering the expectations for future production of electric vehicles. There just isn't enough of these metals around.
Lastly, he discusses peak oil theory and questions its credibility.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:54 - Symposium Presentation5:17 - Markets & Bubbles10:20 - Mortgage Crisis?13:23 - Gold Vs. Inflation18:06 - CPI Measurement19:36 - Paul Volcker & Rates23:26 - Central Banks & Gold28:55 - Countries without Gold33:22 - Turkey & Gold36:16 - El Salvador & Bitcoin37:06 - Commodity Supercycles43:35 - Copper & Futures45:00 - Battery Metals50:08 - Green Energy & Gas51:50 - Peak Oil Theory53:15 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
* Gold and determining its value against fiat.* Real estate concerns and his thoughts on inflation.* Central banks' time horizons and gold reserves.* Energy/battery metals and lack of capital in mining.
Guest LinksTwitter: https://twitter.com/CPMGroupLLCWebsite: https://www.cpmgroup.com/Questions Email: firstname.lastname@example.orgYouTube Link: https://www.youtube.com/c/CPMGroup/videos
Jeffrey Christian is the Managing Partner of the CPM Group. He is considered one of the most knowledgeable experts on precious metals markets, commodities in general, and financial engineering, using options for hedging and investing purposes. He is the author of Commodities Rising 2006.
Jeffrey Christian has been a prominent analyst and advisor on precious metals and commodities markets since the 1970s, with work spanning precious metals, energy markets, base metals, agricultural markets, and economic analysis. The company was founded in 1986, spinning off the Commodities Research Group from Goldman, Sachs & Co and its commodities trading arm, J. Aron & Company.
Mark Moss: How to Prepare for the Great Reset
Tom welcomes a new guest to the program Mark Moss. Mark is an investor, strategist, founder of the "Market Disruptors" and a nationally syndicated radio host.
Mark begins by explaining the intent and background of those behind the "Great Reset" agenda. This agenda is being promoted by Klaus Schwab, Bill Gates, George Soros, and Mark Carney. He recommends people read the books by Mr. Schwab and Mark Carney and consider what they are saying carefully.
Mark explains why these non-governmental organizations are dangerous because no one votes for them and they have no accountability. Much of the world is being overtaken by central banks and corporations. They are usurping the power of the nation-state through various "world" organizations like the WHO and IMF.
Klaus and company have made several predictions including that by 2030 "You'll own nothing and you will be happy." They are also promoting ideas like there will be no more fossil fuels and that people shouldn't eat meat. The "Fourth Industrial Revolution" book describes a merger of man and machine. Essentially, the connecting of individuals directly to a global A.I. cloud.
History and economic cycles tend to repeat since there is always a part of the population that wants to control everything. Power tends to become oppressive and then the public revolts. We go from periods of centralization back to decentralization. He believes we are now at peak centralization as there is increasing pushback. Other cycles are also converging. The reserve currency standard is one of these cycles along with technology.
The policies of centralization always fail because they cause breakdowns in the free market. Green initiatives are an example of this and we are seeing the resulting energy crisis. We're seeing multi-hundred percent moves in natural gas prices. Supply chains are breaking down because of these policies globally and problems are spilling over food production. All of these issues combined could result in many people owning nothing by 2030.
Bitcoin is the revolution and the government is trying to gimmick-ify their own solutions. Central bank digital currencies could enable behavior modification by controlling when, where, and how you may make purchases. They can modify behavior through rewards and penalties.
He also notes that these coming currencies could result in a complete collapse of the existing banking structures down to a handful of global entities.
He discusses ways to get out of the financial Titanic. Get your wealth out early and avoid anything that is losing value from inflation. Diversify out of assets that carry regulatory risks.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:30 - The Great Reset4:13 - 8 Predictions7:00 - Peak Centralization10:19 - Converging Cycles16:55 - CBDC and ownership21:00 - CBDC and Behavior23:47 - Totalitarian Two-Step26:11 - Currency Roll-Outs29:20 - Protecting Yourself32:45 - Bitcoin & Control36:23 - Concluding Thoughts37:58 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
* The Great Reset and its consequences.* A convergence of long-period cycles.* Central bank digital currencies and control.* Solutions to preserving wealth and exiting the system.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/1markmossWebsite: https://www.1markmoss.com/Conference: https://www.marketdisruptorslive.com/sales-page-511174011633642178302YouTube: http://video.marketdisruptors.io/youtubePodcast: a href="https://markmoss.
Lawrence Lepard: The Everything Bubble is Fragile and Faltering
Tom welcomes Lawrence Lepard back to discuss the markets, gold, and the fragile state of the economy.
Lawrence discusses the markets and how they are slowing. We may be near a market top. Last year we had explosive growth in GDP but that has waned in recent months. We printed trillions to get us through the Covid period and now benefits are running out. The economy is starting to choke and the key question is will they do further stimulus or will the markets be allowed to roll over.
The debt-ceiling debate is just a pretense to show their 'responsible'. The big elephant is inflation which is breaking out everywhere. Housing markets are moving higher and very few assets are behaving normally. In the past couple of years, we've printed forty percent of the money in existence. Even the Democrats are reconsidering spending but if they don't spend markets will cool and pull back. In the end, they will likely have no choice but to print more and send out stimulus checks.
The Fed is very good at playing the taper game and they're not stupid. They will try like hell to keep things going while pretending to be responsible. There is a good chance they will have to stop the taper to keep the markets happy. The reality is you can't taper a Ponzi scheme.
No growth and higher prices is the definition of stagflation. Back in the 70s prices kept rising repeatedly. Gold and oil were the outperformers for ten years while bonds were killed and stocks went nowhere. Today's markets feel similar.
He believes the producers are the place to be in mining stocks. They are not sexy but they have a good revenue stream and are currently overlooked.
He discusses the benefits of bitcoin and why like gold it represents a great sound money bet. Inflation will drive the trade out of fiat assets and into alternatives. This is the end game for fiat.
Time Stamp References0:00 - Introduction0:31 - Fragile Markets4:21 - Debt Ceiling Debate9:13 - Fed Taper Bluff?14:22 - Stimulus & Inflation15:54 - Kick for Gold?21:14 - Housing Prices25:45 - Watch for Signposts30:17 - Mining Company Buckets37:37 - Bitcoin as a hedge?46:43 - China & Bitcoin?52:19 - Gold, Bitcoin & Energy54:30 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
* Inflation and market fragility.* Debt-ceiling debate and political will.* Fed's taper plans and Powell to be replaced.* The housing market, bubbles, and mitigating risks.
Guest Links:Newsletter: http://eepurl.com/gOf1dTWebsite: http://www.ema2.comTwitter: https://twitter.com/LawrenceLepard
Lawrence W. Lepard is the Founder and Managing Partner of Equity Management Associates. He has spent his entire 38-year career as an investor, principally focusing on venture capital opportunities.
Before co-founding EMA, Mr. Lepard spent 13 years at Geocapital Partners, in Fort Lee, NJ. There he was one of two Managing General Partners and was responsible for several venture capital funds. Before Geocapital, Mr. Lepard spent seven years at Summit Partners in Boston and California, where he was a General Partner at Summit I and Summit II.
Mr. Lepard received his BA in Economics from Colgate University, and he received an MBA with Academic Distinction from Harvard Business School.
Christopher Aaron: Important Turning Point in the Metals
Tom welcomes back to the show, Christopher Aaron.
Christopher explains why it's important to understand what is going on with precious metals and inflation over the past eight months. Any time there has been news supportive of the economy we have seen the opposite reaction by markets. Reports of high inflation have resulted in metal sell-offs and the dollar moving higher. This is backward from what one might expect. The market seems to be pricing in future responses from the Fed. We're coming to a turning point where the psychology of markets shifts.
The problem today is not the CPI but the debasement of the currency. Most of the measures taken by central banks are magnifying inflation.
Sentiment in the metals sector has been quite terrible for the last year. That may be shifting just in the last few days. He recommends looking for companies that have great exploration potential but be sure to not overpay. Look for companies that are just rounding off the bottom.
He gives us an overview of the GDX and how it's influenced by investor psychology. GDX companies are heavily leveraged to the price of the metal and there are signs of capitulation. This appears to be a possible entry point for the market.
Christopher examines the long-term gold to DOW ratio. Eventually, we will see a reversion to the one-to-one ratio. We are bumping up against a historical chart trend and it's possible that gold will begin to outperform the general equities. Investors will want to watch this carefully.
The decade-long rising trend for the dollar has broken but has not started a declining phase so far. The dollar is failing multiple attempts to rally. Eventually, it will break to the downside. This is likely the driving force behind numerous commodities that are heating up.
Lastly, Chris highlights the need for real education in understanding fiat systems because there is an enormous wealth transfer to the rich. The wealthy are directly benefitting from inflation.
Now is the time to prepare your lifeboat because there is trouble coming for the dollar.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:37 - Inflation & Metals5:18 - Analyzing Inflation8:56 - Metrics & Noise10:50 - Psychology & Sentiment16:00 - GDX Chart22:23 - Long-Term Charts23:40 - Dow Gold Ratio33:26 - US Dollar Chart41:42 - Elite Private Placements48:48 - Anti-Fiat Education56:49 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
* Metals market overview and inflation expectations.* Outlook for the dollar and commodities.* Investor psychology, sentiment, and capitulation.* Need for additional education in fiat money systems.
Guest LinksTwitter: https://twitter.com/iGlobalGoldWebsite: https://igoldadvisor.com/YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCjG_4Kg7ZWWs8o7EnfnDc9Q
Christopher Aaron is Senior Editor for the precious metals investment portal Gold Eagle.
A former counter-terrorism officer for the CIA and Department of Defense, Christopher has always had an independent analytical outlook. He volunteered to serve two tours to Iraq and Afghanistan from 2006 – 2009, conducting pattern analysis and mapping for the US Intelligence Community in Washington, DC. Drawing upon his investigative background, he turned attention to the financial markets in the early 2000s.
Mapping shares similarities with technical analysis of the financial markets because both involve the observation and interpretation of patterns found in human nat...
Kevin Muir: Bearish Signals for Risk Assets Everywhere
Tom welcomes back private trader and newsletter publisher Kevin Muir of "The Macro Tourist" back to the show.
Kevin discusses the Treasury General Account and how the Fed has mopped up some of the excess liquidity. They seem increasingly hawkish and are finally expressing concerns about inflation.
The Fed and Central Banks are increasingly risky when one considers the heights of the stock markets. It seems they will choose to tighten until something breaks.
Kevin explains how inflation is generated either by Central Banks lending money or government spending. The government has demonstrated over the last couple of years that they can spend almost without limits. The only limit being inflation.
S.E.C. chair Gary Gensler was recently featured on mainstream news hinting that a crackdown is coming. With markets feeling a bit like the wild west and exuberant behavior by CEO's investors need to pay attention.
He believes the next Fed chair may be more dovish and that Powell is likely to be replaced.
China appears to be working hard to purge the excesses in its system. If your looking for the next big problem it likely won't be in China.
He believes the energy sector is going to be one of the greatest trades. Oil is still cheap but what would happen should it reach $200. How would the Fed respond in that scenario?
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:50 - Fed & Risk Assets7:20 - QE & Balancing10:02 - Bond Markets & Yields16:20 - Tightening Risks19:02 - Inflation & Euro Markets23:27 - True Sources of Inflation31:30 - Other Market Risks40:08 - Fed Scandals45:25 - Evergrande Conclusions51:50 - The Biggest Risks57:43 - Energy, China, & Policy1:09:23 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
* Feds policy, liquidity issues, and scandals.* Drivers for inflation and supply shocks.* Possibility of market crackdown by the SEC.* China and the potential for higher energy prices.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/kevinmuirWebsite: https://themacrotourist.comEmail for sample letters: email@example.com
Kevin Muir started as an institutional equity derivative trader for a big Canadian bank in the 1990s. In 2000, Kevin decided that bank-life wasn't for him, so he traded his own account for the next two decades. Along the way, he started writing the MacroTourist newsletter – which he describes as an "almost daily" letter about the markets that still manages to have fun. The MacroTourist newsletter attempts to bring a unique take on a variety of different financial topics. Kevin's tagline is "All I Bring to the Party is 25 Years of Mistakes."
Kevin Muir is a CFA and a graduate of the University of Toronto economics program.