JSE Direct with Simon Brown JustOneLap.com

Face-Ripping Rally on the JSE: Surge attributed to the formation of a coalition government involving ANC, DA, and IFP. Top 40 index rose 3.5%, a significant increase not seen since February 2018. The rally, likened to the start of a marathon, suggests potential long-term growth, despite possible volatility. RAND and Resource Stocks: RAND trading under 18, affecting resources positively. Potential for RAND to strengthen further, possibly reaching 17. Coalition Government and Market Impacts: The coalition’s stability is uncertain but critical for long-term market confidence. JP Morgan upgraded South Africa from underweight to overweight, signaling positive outlooks. SA Inc Stocks and ETFs: Retailers like Shoprite*, Mr. Price*, Foschini Group*, and Truworths hitting 52-week highs. ETFs for local investors, focusing on SA Inc.. Recommendations include avoiding heavy Rand Hedge dual-listed miners in a strong RAND environment. RSA Retail Savings Bonds: Interest rates for RSA Retail Savings Bonds to drop in July. Current rates: 11.5% for a 5-year bond, expected to decrease to 10.75%. Opportunity to reset bonds before the rate change on the 20th of the month. Inflation and Interest Rates: Local CPI stable at 5.2%, within the target band but aiming for 4.5%. US FOMC holds rates steady, hinting at a possible future rate cut. Prospects for lower local interest rates and their impact on retail stocks and disposable income. Market Opportunities: Interest in retailers and brokers like Purple Group* and PSG Konsult, considering the potential increase in disposable income and trading volumes. Positive long-term outlook, but caution against immediate full investment. Simon Brown
* I hold ungeared positions.
 

US Inflation: Core Inflation: Came in at 3.4%, lower than the expected 3.5% and previous 3.6%. Impact: Positive market reaction, with US Treasuries under pressure, Rand strengthening, and Dollar weakening. FOMC Outlook: Potential rate cuts anticipated towards the end of the year, possibly in November and December. Company Results: SPAR:
Performance: Results were as expected, market responded positively. Issues: Challenges in Switzerland, discontinued operations in Poland, and ongoing SAP implementation issues. Foschini Group:
Performance: Strong results, market reacted favorably. Highlights: Good performance in their online platform Bash and general improvement across brands. Foschini Group and Clothing Retailers: Potential growth areas and resistance levels in stock prices. Interesting Stock: Contemporary Amperex Technology Company Limited (CATL): Sector: Battery technology for EVs and corporate solutions. Market Performance: Positive analyst ratings, promising future prospects. Renergen*: Helium Production: Helium is flowing, but further testing is required. Challenges: Significant delays and ongoing testing phases, but progress is being made. Santova: Stock Movement: Changes in buyer and seller dynamics impacting stock price. Insights: Importance of identifying market movers in stock trading. Political Developments: Coalition Talks: Ongoing with potential for an ANC, DA, IFP coalition. Rand Performance: Strengthening in response to political stability and positive US inflation data. [caption id="attachment_42378" align="aligncenter" width="849"] USDZAR | 12 June 2024[/caption]
Simon Brown
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* I hold ungeared positions.

New Two-Pot Pension System:
Details on the implementation and implications for retirement savings. Kicks in 1 September 2024 Can take up to R30k immediately, but this will be taxed. Thereafter 30% of contribution go into a savings pot your can take out, it will be taxed. Only use for an emergency, not holidays. Rainbow's Return to JSE: Analysis of Rainbow's re-listing after 17 years. RCL Foods will be unbundling later in June One Rainbow share for every RCL Foods share But is Rainbow the best chicken stock on the JSE? OPEC+ Impact on Oil Prices: Members agreed to cut voluntary production cuts Oil crashed As did Sasol [caption id="attachment_42315" align="aligncenter" width="849"] Brent oil | weekly | Koyfin
Q1 GDP Results: Negative Q1 Q2 should be slightly better thanks to reduced load shedding But election will have worried investors. Santova Stock Analysis:  Buyer at 750c Seller at 760c [caption id="attachment_42316" align="aligncenter" width="849"] Santova daily | 06 May 2024 | Koyfin
Coalition Talks: ANC is talking with everybody They seem keen on a governmnt of national unity Rand volatile Recent uploads onto Just One Lap Three new Global ETFs from FNB with low TERs The Power of Commodities with 1nvest: Navigating Trends and Unlocking Portfolio Diversity Simon Brown
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Election Results Impact on Markets Slow ballot counting with three ballots, 18.7% counted. CSIR prediction at 5%: ANC 42%, DA 22%, EFF 9%, MK 14%, Patrick Alliance 2%. Market concerns about ANC forming a coalition. Rand fluctuations: From 18.34 on Tuesday to 18.61 currently. [caption id="attachment_42259" align="aligncenter" width="849"] Rand | 1pm 30 May 2024[/caption]
Pepkor Results: 9.5% revenue growth. 24.5% growth in fintech, now 12% of the business. Pepkor sells 7 out of 10 smartphones in South Africa. Woolies (Woolworths) Update: Earnings down 20% for the year ending June. Challenges in the clothing segment, further deterioration in footfall and discretionary spend. Food segment performing better, but overall market reaction negative. Zeda Results: Revenue growth of 19%, HEPs up 12.5%, return on equity at 28.5%. Surprise 50 cents dividend despite previous year-end dividend expectations.
BHP Billiton and Anglo American Merger BHP walked away from the Anglo-American takeover proposal. Speculation about potential offers from Rio Tinto or Glencore. Anglo-American's disinvestment plans for De Beers and Anglo Platinum. Market Insights Discussion on Metrofile's challenges with dividend yield falling and pressure on share price. SAB Cap Investments' exit from Metrofile. South African Reserve Bank MPC rate announcement: No rate changes expected. Upcoming central bank meetings: ECB, FOMC, Bank of England, Swiss National Bank. Potential for future rate cuts in South Africa if inflation targets are met. Commodity webcast with Johann Erasmus available on Just One Lap. Insights into gold, PGMs, and copper. Mention of the cheaper gold ETF from 1nvest compared to Absa GLD. Changes in 10X ETFs: Local Dividend Aristocrat and Smart Beta merging into a Top 50 ETF.
* I hold ungeared positions.

Nvidia's Financial Performance
Nvidia's Q1 Results: Revenue up 262% year-on-year to $26 billion. Net income up 628% year-on-year to $14.9 billion. Gross margins at 78.9%. Stock Split: 10-for-1 stock split set for 7 June. Market Reaction: Stock traded over $1,000 in the aftermarket.
Anglo American and BHP Group BHP's Third Offer: Anglo American rejects BHP’s third offer. Deal Concerns: Issues with the price and risk of the deal. Next Steps: Extended deadline for BHP's offer to 29 May. Richemont's* Results Richemont's Position: Holding steady in a tough luxury market. Earnings Growth: Expected around 10% over the next few years. Preferred Stock: Richemont favored over LVMH for its focused luxury product line. Copper Market Copper Boom: Strong performance but cautious outlook due to potential price pullbacks. Investment Options: Local ETNs and offshore ETFs available for copper investment. Structured Products Educational Video: Power Hour session on structured products by Kevin Swartz from Standard Bank. Features: Capital protection and enhanced upside. Pick n Pay's Plan Sales Update: For 52 weeks ending 25 February, bleak results expected. Market Reaction: Stock closed 4.5% higher on news of a plan. South African Economic Indicators CPI Inflation: 5.2% for April. Primary Surplus: Revenue exceeded expenditure (excluding interest). Vehicle Sector Analysis Companies Covered: Combined Motor Holdings (CMH), WeBuyCars, Motus, and Zeda. WeBuyCars showed strong sales growth. Motus and CMH had high dividend yields. Zeda focuses on car rentals and mobility as a service. CMH preferred for its consistent performance and dividend yield. Home Building Sector Analysis Companies Covered: Calgro M3* and Balwin. Balwin struggling with higher-priced units. Calgro M3's flexible pricing strategy favored in current market conditions. [caption id="attachment_42201" align="aligncenter" width="849"] Calgro M3 vs Balwin[/caption]
Santova Directors' Selling Director Sales: Recent director sales not seen as a significant concern. Market Impact: Director selling viewed as a neutral action. Disclaimer JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with JSE Limited. Views expressed are solely those of the presenter.
* I hold ungeared positions.
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Anglo-American vs. BHP Group Anglo-American rejects BHP Group's offer, unveils its own restructuring plan. Anglo-American to divest De Beers, Anglo-American Platinum, coking coal in Western Australia, and reduce spending on UK fertilizer businesses. Focus on high-quality iron ore and copper assets. Discusses shareholder likelihood of accepting Anglo-American's plan over BHP Group's offer. Discussion on lab-grown diamonds and potential impacts on the market. Market Insights Tencent's positive results impact Naspers and Prosus. NASDAQ and S&P close at all-time highs. Analysis of South African market trends, influenced by gold stocks, Naspers, Prosus, Richemont, and Rand strength.  
[caption id="attachment_42112" align="aligncenter" width="849"] Top40 close 15 May 2024[/caption]
Discussion on upcoming elections' market impact. NHI bill signed, causing sell-off in healthcare stocks. US imposing more tariffs on China, strategic implications discussed. Company Highlights Positive financial results from Calgro M3* and Raubex. Calgro M3 reports good numbers, discusses share buybacks and future prospects.  
[caption id="attachment_42113" align="aligncenter" width="849"] Clagro M3 close 15 May 2024[/caption]
Raubex impresses with strong financial performance, diversification strategies. Preview of forthcoming corporate earnings announcements and economic data releases. Notable events include Richemont*, Palo Alto, Netcare, Astral, Famous Brands, Coronation, UK and US inflation data, FOMC minutes, and Nvidia results.
* I hold ungeared positions.
Simon Brown