Mid-Atlantic - conversations about US, UK and world politics Roifield Brown

In this episode of Mid Atlantic, host Roifield Brown takes us into the complex political crisis of Bosnia and Herzegovina, a country on the brink of division with significant implications for the stability of the Western Balkans. Roifield is joined by Valerie Perry, an independent consultant with the Democratization Policy Council, and Florian Bieber, a professor at the University of Graz, to dissect the factors driving Bosnia’s current predicament and the international ramifications of a potential split.
Valerie Perry points out that the threats of secession from Milorad Dodik, leader of the Bosnian Serb-controlled territory, are part of a long-standing political strategy. She explains that Dodik’s rhetoric serves to distract from pressing domestic issues like brain drain, low wages, and lack of development. Florian Bieber provides a historical context, highlighting the inadequacies of the Dayton Accords, which, while successful in ending the Bosnian war, established a governance system that has proven to be dysfunctional in the long term.
Both experts delve into the international dynamics at play. Valerie elaborates on the role of Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić and his increasing nationalist rhetoric, which bolsters Dodik’s secessionist threats. Florian broadens the discussion by examining the geopolitical influences of regional actors like Hungary’s Viktor Orbán, whose illiberal policies and alliances complicate the EU’s stance on Bosnia.
As the conversation shifts to potential future scenarios, the guests offer a sobering outlook. Florian envisions a continued status quo, with Bosnia remaining in a state of slow decline unless there is significant external intervention. Valerie warns of the broader implications of corruption and economic stagnation, suggesting that without meaningful reforms and international support, Bosnia’s prospects for EU integration remain bleak.
Quotes"Dodik’s business model is to stoke division, distracting from issues like brain drain and low wages." - Valerie Perry"The Dayton Accords were meant to end the war, not to be a long-term governance solution." - Florian Bieber"Serbia's nationalist rhetoric under Vučić mirrors Russia’s strategy of regional influence." - Florian Bieber"Economic development is hampered by instability and corruption, deterring investment." - Valerie Perry"Bosnia could become a cordon sanitaire for migrants, exacerbating its political and social challenges." - Valerie PerryFurther ReadingThe Dayton Accords and their implicationsThe rise of nationalism in SerbiaEconomic disparities in the Western BalkansCorruption and state capture in Southeast Europe
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In this episode of Mid Atlantic, host Roifield Brown leads a discussion with an expert panel featuring Ira Shapiro, Aram Fisher, Steve O'Neill, Tonye Altrade, and Michael Donoghue. The main focus is on the launch of the UK party manifestos and the impact they may have as the general election approaches. The panelists examine key pledges from the Conservative, Labour, and Liberal Democrat parties, analysing their potential influence on voters.
The discussion also covers recent events in US politics, including President Joe Biden's response to his son Hunter Biden's conviction and the significance of a recent meeting between Mitch McConnell and Donald Trump. The panelists debate the implications of these developments and the broader state of American politics as the 2024 election season heats up.

Key QuotesSteve O'Neill on UK Party Manifestos: "The thing with manifestos, they are in some way shopping lists of policies, but they also tell a story. Labour's manifesto tries to tell a story about the kind of government Keir Starmer wants to run."Tonye Altrade on the Conservative Manifesto: "There was no story whatsoever I could glean from the Conservative manifesto. It was a ramshackle of different things, some bold, some pandering to far-right wingers."Mike Donoghue on US Politics: "It's a brutal time to be an incumbent president. When you've got a country that seems angry, divided, depressed, they tend to blame the incumbent for everything."Ira Shapiro on Mitch McConnell and Trump: "McConnell staying with Trump despite their differences shows the extent of partisanship. It’s clear McConnell will support the nominee, no matter who it is."Aram Fisher on Biden's Strategy: "Biden has taken steps to re-engage with black voters, appearing alongside Kamala Harris in Philadelphia. How effective this will be remains to be seen, but it’s a crucial part of his campaign strategy."

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In this episode of Mid Atlantic, host Roifield Brown takes on the heavy subject of global peace—or the lack thereof—in 2024. The discussion opens with a grim statistic: conflict-related deaths in the first four months of the year have reached 47,000, potentially setting a record since the Rwandan genocide. Brown is joined by Thomas Morgan, who discusses the findings of the 18th Global Peace Index (GPI). Morgan explains the GPI's purpose and methodology, noting a general decline in global peacefulness over the past 16 years.
Morgan outlines the three domains of the GPI—safety and security, ongoing conflict, and militarisation—highlighting the technological changes and geopolitical shifts contributing to increased conflicts. He emphasises the rise of asymmetric warfare and the increased involvement of non-state actors. The discussion also touches on specific conflicts in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Gaza, Myanmar, and Haiti, illustrating the complex, multifaceted nature of modern conflicts.
Brown and Morgan also discuss the contrasting paths of El Salvador and Haiti regarding gang violence and governance, noting the former's controversial yet effective short-term strategies. They explore the balance between reducing violence and maintaining civil liberties, with Morgan asserting that long-term peace is typically achieved through democratic means rather than authoritarian measures.
Finally, the episode provides a detailed look at the top and bottom countries in the GPI, with Iceland, Ireland, Austria, New Zealand, and Singapore being the most peaceful, and Yemen, Sudan, South Sudan, Afghanistan, and Ukraine being the least. The UK and US are examined for their rankings and inherent issues, including violent crime and geopolitical involvement.

Relevant Quotes"The overall trend of peacefulness is a negative one. We've seen a deterioration in the level of global peacefulness over the past 16 years." – Thomas Morgan"The rise of asymmetric warfare and new technologies like drones makes it easier for smaller states and insurgent groups to be involved in conflict." – Thomas Morgan"Conflicts now tend to fizzle out or become frozen, rather than ending decisively as they did in the past." – Thomas Morgan"El Salvador's approach to reducing violence through mass incarceration has been effective short-term, but the challenge is ensuring sustained peace." – Thomas Morgan"It's possible to achieve a certain amount of peace through authoritarian measures, but long-term peace is more likely in full democracies with respect for civil rights." – Thomas Morgan
Further ReadingGlobal Peace Index 2024
For those interested in deeper insights, head over to Vision of Humanity and explore the comprehensive reports that Thomas Morgan mentioned. If you enjoy this podcast, consider supporting it on roifield.Substack.com or leaving a review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

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In the latest episode of "Mid Atlantic," host Roifield Brown is joined by a global panel including Z Cohen Sanchez from Arizona, Logan Phillips from Washington, DC, Dave Smith from London, and Mike Holden from Burnley. The discussion kicks off with the unfolding UK election campaign, highlighting Nigel Farage's return to frontline politics and the anticipated leaders' debate. The panel dissects Farage's impact on the Conservative Party and the potential electoral consequences of his bid to become an MP in Clapton.
Dave and Mike debate the significance of Farage's comeback, emphasising the potential devastation to the Conservative vote. They analyse whether Reform Party votes will translate into parliamentary seats and discuss the broader implications for the Tory party's future. Logan provides a snapshot of current UK polls, showing a significant shift in voter sentiment towards the Reform Party and away from the Conservatives.
The conversation then shifts to the aftermath of Donald Trump's recent conviction and its impact on the US political landscape. Logan Phillips discusses the polling implications, noting a slight uptick for Biden but emphasising the need for more data to fully understand the trends. The panel also explores the potential long-term threat posed by Trump's candidacy and the broader challenges facing American democracy.

Quotes from the Episode:"Farage's comeback is the worst news Rishi Sunak has had in the last 48 hours." - Mike Holden"A 400-seat majority in Parliament is not a healthy thing. It will lead to real problems in terms of scrutiny and what the government does." - Dave Smith"Biden looked very old and not exciting during the primary debates, but at least now, both him and Trump are of similar cognitive ability." - Z Cohen Sanchez"The no audience part of the debate format is the greatest political bear trap that's been laid recently." - Dave Smith"Trump's speech after the verdict was incomprehensible. His declining cognitive abilities are catching up with him." - Roifield Brown

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In this episode of Mid-Atlantic, Roifield Brown, broadcasting from sunny Birmingham, is joined by a distinguished panel of political analysts to dissect the latest political turmoil in the US and UK. Representing London is Dave Smith, Logan Phillips joins from Washington, D.C., and Corey Bernard contributes from Manchester, England.
UK Election Season Kickoff:
The episode focuses on the first week of the UK election season, announced by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak.
Rishi Sunak's Rocky Start:
Dave Smith describes Sunak's initial week on the campaign trail as disastrous.Missteps include awkward public appearances, such as standing in the rain, posing by the Titanic, and a mishap in a supermarket.
Labour Party's Cautious Strategy:
The panel discusses Labour's cautious approach, characterized by avoiding bold statements and focusing on not making mistakes.The shadow chancellor's reluctance to identify as a socialist and the deselection of left-wing MPs are highlighted.
Polling Analysis:
Logan Phillips provides an analysis of UK polling data, showing Labour's consistent lead over the Conservatives since late 2021.Current polls suggest a significant Labour majority if the election were held today.
General Election Expectations:
Corey Bernard predicts a boring election season, with both major parties being unexciting and overly cautious.The panel debates whether the British public desires stability and boring politics after years of tumultuous events like Brexit and COVID-19.
National Service Proposal:
The controversial proposal by the Tories for national service is discussed, with Corey Bernard labeling it a gimmick aimed at older voters.The proposal is seen as an attempt to stem voter loss to the reform party.
Nigel Farage's Media Presence:
The panel questions why Nigel Farage continues to receive significant media attention despite not running in the election.
Labour's Internal Dynamics:
Keir Starmer's leadership and his approach to managing the left-wing faction within Labour are scrutinised.The potential consequences of Starmer's strategy on the party's unity and election prospects are debated.
Minor Parties' Influence:
The potential impact of minor parties like the Greens and SNP on the election is discussed.The possibility of Labour losing seats in London due to their stance on Gaza and other issues is considered.

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Historic Accountability: For the first time, a US president has been held accountable by the justice system. The significance of this verdict in the context of American history and democracy was a major point of discussion.Political Ramifications: The panel explored how this conviction might affect Trump’s political career and the upcoming election. Opinions varied on the extent to which the verdict will impact Trump’s base and the broader electorate.Legal Consequences: Despite the historic nature of the verdict, there was consensus that the actual legal consequences for Trump might be limited, possibly avoiding prison time due to the nature of the crimes and his status.Future Implications: The discussion also touched on how this verdict might influence future presidents and politicians, emphasizing the importance of accountability and the rule of law in maintaining democratic norms.Public and Media Reactions: Immediate reactions from public figures like Biden and Trump Jr. were shared, highlighting the polarized nature of American politics. The media’s role in shaping public perception of this verdict was also considered.
Notable Quotes:“We have to have rules. And we have to have a society where justice means something where character means something.” - Denise Hamilton“A criminal judgment inherently reduces whoever the person is that has it. Nobody comes away from it with enhanced stature.” - Jared Kobach“If you are explaining, you are losing.” - Aram Fischer“This isn't about Republican or Democrat. This is about crime and you shouldn't do it and we should have a culture.” - Denise Hamilton“This is a man who has never been held accountable. The first time he was held accountable at all.” - Aram Fischer
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