51 episodes

Join Michael Cembalest as he explores a wide variety of investment topics, including the economy, policy and markets.

Eye On The Market Michael Cembalest

    • Investing

Join Michael Cembalest as he explores a wide variety of investment topics, including the economy, policy and markets.

    Absolute Value

    Absolute Value

    Biden goes for broke on growth, driving coincident and leading indicators to all-time highs; the Value recovery and where it goes from here; COVID herd immunity, the path to normalcy and rising concerns about thrombosis risks from vector vaccines.

    • 13 min
    Interest rate pretzels and the Zoom shock on real estate

    Interest rate pretzels and the Zoom shock on real estate

    If long-term US interest rates stay below 2%, that’s a great sign for equity investors. But if they don’t… it’s amazing to see the pretzels that people contort into to convince themselves that rising rates are not a problem for equities. Also: an early look at the Zoom shock on commercial and residential real estate, and the diverging COVID trends in the US vs Europe.

    • 15 min
    Very short stories

    Very short stories

    Short stories on the global recovery, plummeting COVID infections, Larry Summers & the bond market, SPAC sponsors, renewable energy, the Texas power outage and the battle for the Republican Party.

    • 19 min
    Hydraulic Spacking

    Hydraulic Spacking

    In this month’s note, we look first at the SPAC capital raising boom. Our main focus: returns to date for SPAC sponsors and investors, and the large wealth transfers taking place among SPAC participants. Second topic: Biden’s early stage energy policies (ban on new oil & gas leases on Federal lands, Keystone XL pipeline termination and conversion of Federal fleet to EVs) will probably end up increasing US oil & gas imports more than they reduce emissions.

    • 16 min
    Fear of Flying

    Fear of Flying

    Equity markets are flying. So is COVID. So are corporate reactions to Congressional objectors.

    • 18 min
    Outlook 2021: The Hazmat Recovery

    Outlook 2021: The Hazmat Recovery

    Michael Cembalest’s views on what will drive markets and the economy in 2021, as well as the challenges we face that stimulus and vaccines can’t solve.

    • 10 min

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