Clearer Thinking with Spencer Greenberg Spencer Greenberg

Read the full transcript here. (https://podcast.clearerthinking.org/episode/216/#transcript) • What does effective altruism look like from a leftist / socialist perspective? Are the far left and EA the only groups that take radical egalitarianism seriously? What are some of the points of agreement and disagreement between EA ; socialism? Socialists frequently critique the excesses, harms, and failures of capitalism; but what do they have to say about the effectiveness of capitalism to produce wealth, goods, and services? Is socialism just a top-down mirror of capitalism? How difficult is it to mix and match economic tools or systems? Why is the left not more tuned into AI development? What are the three main sides in AI debates right now? Why are there so many disagreements between AI safety and AI ethics groups? What do the incentive structures look like for governments regarding AGI? Should the world create a CERN-like entity to manage and regulate AI research? How should we think about AI research in light of the trend of AI non-profits joining forces with or being subsumed by for-profit corporations? How might for-profit corporations handle existential risks from AI if those risks seem overwhelmingly likely to become reality? • Garrison Lovely is a Brooklyn-based freelance journalist with cover stories in The Nation (https://www.thenation.com/article/society/mckinsey-whistleblower-confessions/) and Jacobin (https://www.jacobinmag.com/author/garrison-lovely) and long-form work in BBC Future (https://bbc.in/3OhWUE3), Vox (https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/23639475/pescetarian-eating-fish-ethics-vegetarian-animal-welfare-seafood-fishing-chicken-beef-climate), Current Affairs (https://www.currentaffairs.org/author/garrison-lovely), and elsewhere. He has appeared on CBS News Sunday Morning (https://www.cbsnews.com/video/pulling-back-the-veil-of-secrecy-surrounding-mckinsey/#x), The Weather Channel (https://youtu.be/G7NEtUJC29Q), The Majority Report (https://www.youtube.com/live/EnsitCyMXX0?si=FQSpcbnl6OIj7udn;t=3143), and SiriusXM (https://player.fm/series/the-john-fugelsang-podcast/pioneers-uncovering-the-truth). He hosts the podcast The Most Interesting People I Know (https://mostinterestingpeople.podbean.com/). His writing has been referenced in publications like The New Yorker (https://www.newyorker.com/science/annals-of-artificial-intelligence/will-ai-become-the-new-mckinsey#:~:text=A%20former%20McKinsey%20employee%20has%20described%20the%20company%20as%20%E2%80%9Ccapital%E2%80%99s%20willing%20executioners%E2%80%9D%3A%20if%20you%20want%20something%20done%20but%20don%E2%80%99t%20want%20to%20get%20your%20hands%20dirty%2C%20McKinsey%20will%20do%20it%20for%20you.) (by Ted Chiang), ProPublica (https://www.propublica.org/article/the-country-that-exiled-mckinsey), New York Magazine (http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/04/mckinsey-in-puerto-rico.html), The New Republic (https://newrepublic.com/article/155863/houston-astros-cheaters-2017-world-series-mckinsey-problem), and GQ (https://www.gq.com/story/buttigieg-mckinsey-clients-list). Read his writings on his Substack (http://garrisonlovely.substack.com/); learn more about his work at his website, garrisonlovely.com (http://garrisonlovely.com/); or email him at tgarrisonlovely@gmail.com (mailto:tgarrisonlovely@gmail.com). • Further reading: • "13 Ways Some Companies Make Money While Causing Harm", by Spencer Greenberg (https://www.spencergreenberg.com/2017/10/13-ways-some-companies-make-money-while-causing-harm/) • "Can Humanity Survive AI?", by Garrison Lovely (https://jacobin.com/2024/01/can-humanity-survive-ai) in Jacobin • "The Data Show That Socialism Works", by Nick Warino (https://www.currentaffairs.org/2019/12/the-data-show-that-socialism-works) in Current Affairs • Staff • Spencer Greenberg (https://www.spencergreenberg.com/) — Ho... [Read more: https://podcast.clearerthinking.org/episode/216/garrison-lovely-what-do-socialism-and-effective-altruism-ha

Read the full transcript here. (https://podcast.clearerthinking.org/episode/215/#transcript) • How easy is it to shift our baseline level of happiness? What sorts of things can most effectively shift that baseline? And are they highly specific to each individual or generalizable to most people? What are the differences between conceptual and phenomenal self-love? Why might it be useful to view shame as a kink? How does self-love or self-acceptance differ from indulging or even just tolerating the worst parts of yourself? What's the best way to think about "woo"? How genuine is the stereotypical guru demeanor of serenity, graciousness, and attentiveness? Is it possible for people with aphantasia to learn visualization? What's so interesting about perfume? What can people do to become better writers? • Sasha Chapin is a writer currently living in California. Most of his recent writing is on his Substack (https://sashachapin.substack.com/). His most popular posts there are "What the humans like is responsiveness" (https://sashachapin.substack.com/p/what-the-humans-like-is-responsiveness) and "50 Things I Know" (https://sashachapin.substack.com/p/50-things-i-know). He also wrote a book called All the Wrong Moves: A Memoir About Chess, Love, and Ruining Everything (https://www.amazon.com/All-Wrong-Moves-Ruining-Everything/dp/0385545177). Learn more about him at his website, sashachapin.com (https://www.sashachapin.com/), or follow him on Twitter / X at @sashachapin (https://twitter.com/sashachapin). • Further reading: • Cate Hall's Clearer Thinking episode (https://podcast.clearerthinking.org/episode/113/cate-hall-are-we-all-the-heroes-of-our-own-stories/) • Loch Kelly's Clearer Thinking episode (https://podcast.clearerthinking.org/episode/093/loch-kelly-accessing-pure-consciousness-at-any-moment/) • Mind's Eye Development eCourse (https://rcdc-courses.teachable.com/p/aphantasia-to-mental-imagery) — the course that helped Sasha overcome aphantasia • Loving What Is: Four Questions That Can Change Your Life, by Byron Katie (https://www.amazon.com/Loving-What-Four-Questions-Change/dp/1400045371) • Expanding Awareness, by Michael Ashcroft (https://expandingawareness.org/) • Difficult Conversations: How to Discuss What Matters Most, by Douglas Stone, Bruce Patton, and Sheila Heen (https://www.amazon.com/Difficult-Conversations-Discuss-What-Matters/dp/0143118447) • Staff • Spencer Greenberg (https://www.spencergreenberg.com/) — Host / Director • Josh Castle (mailto:joshrcastle@gmail.com) — Producer • Ryan Kessler (https://tone.support/) — Audio Engineer • Uri Bram (https://uribram.com/) — Factotum • WeAmplify (https://www.weamplify.info/) — Transcriptionists • Music • Broke for Free (https://freemusicarchive.org/music/Broke_For_Free/Something_EP/Broke_For_Free_-_Something_EP_-_05_Something_Elated) • Josh Woodward (https://www.joshwoodward.com/song/AlreadyThere) • Lee Rosevere (https://archive.org/details/MusicForPodcasts04/Lee+Rosevere+-+Music+for+Podcasts+4+-+11+Keeping+Stuff+Together.flac) • Quiet Music for Tiny Robots (https://www.freemusicarchive.org/music/Quiet_Music_for_Tiny_Robots/The_February_Album/05_Tiny_Robot_Armies) • wowamusic (https://gamesounds.xyz/?dir=wowamusic) • zapsplat.com (https://www.zapsplat.com/music/summer-haze-slow-chill-out-house-track-with-a-modern-pop-feel-warm-piano-chords-underpin-the-track-with-warm-pads-and-a-repetitive-synth-arpeggio/) • Affiliates • Clearer Thinking (https://www.clearerthinking.org/) • GuidedTrack (https://guidedtrack.com/) • Mind Ease (https://mindease.io/) • Positly (https://positly.com/) • UpLift (https://www.uplift.app/) [Read more: https://podcast.clearerthinking.org/episode/215/sasha-chapin-raising-our-happiness-baseline]

Read the full transcript here. (https://podcast.clearerthinking.org/episode/214/#transcript) • How does Emmett's worldview differ from the standard Silicon Valley worldview? What's the difference between an ideology and a worldview? What's middle management useful for? How might democracy be improved? How important is optimism? Why do people seem to get less done each day than they expect to get done? When is high variance beneficial? Does every startup have a point where it seems like they're going to fail? What's the best and worst startup advice out there? What's the right way to learn from users / customers? When should companies follow trends? How should we think about the different types of AI risks? • Emmett Shear is an entrepreneur and investor. He was part of the first class at Y Combinator in 2005. He co-founded Justin.tv in 2006 and its spin-off company Twitch in 2011. In the same year, he also became a part-time partner at Y Combinator, a role in which he continues to advise new startups. He very briefly (for 2.5 days) acted as interim CEO at OpenAI in November 2023. Follow him on Twitter / X at @eshear (https://twitter.com/eshear). • Staff • Spencer Greenberg (https://www.spencergreenberg.com/) — Host / Director • Josh Castle (mailto:joshrcastle@gmail.com) — Producer • Ryan Kessler (https://tone.support/) — Audio Engineer • Uri Bram (https://uribram.com/) — Factotum • WeAmplify (https://www.weamplify.info/) — Transcriptionists • Alexandria D. — Research and Special Projects Assistant • Music • Broke for Free (https://freemusicarchive.org/music/Broke_For_Free/Something_EP/Broke_For_Free_-_Something_EP_-_05_Something_Elated) • Josh Woodward (https://www.joshwoodward.com/song/AlreadyThere) • Lee Rosevere (https://archive.org/details/MusicForPodcasts04/Lee+Rosevere+-+Music+for+Podcasts+4+-+11+Keeping+Stuff+Together.flac) • Quiet Music for Tiny Robots (https://www.freemusicarchive.org/music/Quiet_Music_for_Tiny_Robots/The_February_Album/05_Tiny_Robot_Armies) • wowamusic (https://gamesounds.xyz/?dir=wowamusic) • zapsplat.com (https://www.zapsplat.com/music/summer-haze-slow-chill-out-house-track-with-a-modern-pop-feel-warm-piano-chords-underpin-the-track-with-warm-pads-and-a-repetitive-synth-arpeggio/) • Affiliates • Clearer Thinking (https://www.clearerthinking.org/) • GuidedTrack (https://guidedtrack.com/) • Mind Ease (https://mindease.io/) • Positly (https://positly.com/) • UpLift (https://www.uplift.app/) [Read more: https://podcast.clearerthinking.org/episode/214/emmett-shear-worldviews-altruism-and-embracing-variance]

Read the full transcript here. (https://podcast.clearerthinking.org/episode/213/#transcript) • Should people spend more time becoming better decision-makers? What are the main things that determine how our lives turn out? What's wrong with pro / con lists? When should we deviate from making decisions based on expected value calculations? What kinds of uncertainty might we encounter in the decision-making process? Are explicit decision calculations self-defeating? How similar is intuitive decision-making to decision-making that's based on calculations? How useful are heuristics? How can we know which decisions are significant enough to warrant calculations? What makes a decision hard? What's the omission / commission bias? What lessons can we learn from monkeys and pedestals? Should decision-making strategies be taught in primary and secondary schools? • Annie Duke is an author, speaker, and consultant in the decision-making space, as well as Special Partner focused on Decision Science at First Round Capital Partners, a seed stage venture fund. Her latest book, Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away , was released in 2022 from Portfolio, a Penguin Random House imprint. Her previous book, Thinking in Bets , is a national bestseller. As a former professional poker player, she has won more than $4 million in tournament poker, has won a World Series of Poker bracelet, and is the only woman to have won the World Series of Poker Tournament of Champions and the NBC National Poker Heads-Up Championship. She is the co-founder of The Alliance for Decision Education, a non-profit whose mission is to improve lives by empowering students through decision skills education. Connect with her on Facebook (https://www.facebook.com/AnnieDukeAuthor), Twitter (https://twitter.com/AnnieDuke), YouTube (http://www.youtube.com/channel/UClDhEz5b55RH1ZfEZd7Y3hA), LinkedIn (http://www.linkedin.com/pub/annie-duke/5/b2b/30a) or via her website, AnnieDuke.com (https://annieduke.com); or subscribe to her newsletter on Substack (https://annieduke.substack.com/). • Further reading: • Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts, by Annie Duke (https://www.amazon.com/Thinking-in-Bets-Annie-Duke-audiobook/dp/B078SBSBW3/ref=sr_1_1?crid=ANL7NGV8W0OU;keywords=annie+duke;qid=1702853892;sprefix=annie+du%2Caps%2C551;sr=8-1) • Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away, by Annie Duke (https://www.amazon.com/Quit-Power-Knowing-When-Walk/dp/B09PVR6YK5/ref=sr_1_2?crid=ANL7NGV8W0OU;keywords=annie+duke;qid=1702853903;sprefix=annie+du%2Caps%2C551;sr=8-2) • How to Decide: Simple Tools for Making Better Choices, by Annie Duke (https://www.amazon.com/How-Decide-Simple-Making-Choices/dp/B088P4XLVB/ref=sr_1_3?crid=ANL7NGV8W0OU;keywords=annie+duke;qid=1702853903;sprefix=annie+du%2Caps%2C551;sr=8-3) • The Alliance for Decision Education (https://alliancefordecisioneducation.org/) • Staff • Spencer Greenberg (https://www.spencergreenberg.com/) — Host / Director • Josh Castle (mailto:joshrcastle@gmail.com) — Producer • Ryan Kessler (https://tone.support/) — Audio Engineer • Uri Bram (https://uribram.com/) — Factotum • WeAmplify (https://www.weamplify.info/) — Transcriptionists • Alexandria D. — Research and Special Projects Assistant • Music • Broke for Free (https://freemusicarchive.org/music/Broke_For_Free/Something_EP/Broke_For_Free_-_Something_EP_-_05_Something_Elated) • Josh Woodward (https://www.joshwoodward.com/song/AlreadyThere) • Lee Rosevere (https://archive.org/details/MusicForPodcasts04/Lee+Rosevere+-+Music+for+Podcasts+4+-+11+Keeping+Stuff+Together.flac) • Quiet Music for Tiny Robots (https://www.freemusicarchive.org/music/Quiet_Music_for_Tiny_Robots/The_February_Album/05_Tiny_Robot_Armies) • wowamusic (https://gamesounds.xyz/?dir=wowamusic) • zaps... [Read more: https://podcast.clearerthinking.org/episode/213/annie-duke-two-things-shape-the-course-of-your-life-luck-and-your-d

Read the full transcript here. (https://podcast.clearerthinking.org/episode/212/#transcript) • How do we know what's true in nutrition? Why aren't nutrition studies seemingly as "definitive" as (e.g.) physics experiments often seem to be? What is the "hierarchy of evidence"? Why is there such a disconnect between the kinds of evidence that actually seem to persuade people and the kinds of evidence that scientists view as valid and meaningful? How can we talk about specific foods in ways that avoid labelling them as always good or always bad? Is the Mediterranean diet good for anyone and everyone? Is it better than all other known dietary patterns? Are there healthy ways to do (e.g.) low-carb, high-carb, low-fat, high-fat, and other similar diet types? What do we know about the effects of ketogenic diets? What do we know about the effects of meat-only diets? Are saturated fats always bad? How should we think about mechanistic evidence given for or against a particular food or diet? How much protein should we consume every day? Should we universally reduce our sugar intake? To what extent is excess body fat bad? Since BMI is much criticized, what are the best measures of health for people with excess body fat? Should we avoid blood sugar spikes throughout the day? What percent of people tend to re-gain lost weight after concluding temporary diets? Is caloric intake really the only factor for weight gain or loss? Is the mistrust of nutritionists justified? • Gil Carvalho, MD PhD is a physician, research scientist, science communicator, speaker, and writer. Dr. Carvalho trained as a medical doctor in the University of Lisbon, in his native Portugal, and later obtained a PhD in Biology from the California Institute of Technology. He has published peer-reviewed medical research spanning the fields of genetics, molecular biology, nutrition, behavior, aging, and neuroscience. In parallel with his research career, Dr. Carvalho also has a passion for science communication. He directs and hosts Nutrition Made Simple, which aims to convey fundamental nutrition concepts to a general audience via educational videos. Learn more about him here (https://www.truehealthinitiative.org/council_member/4125/), and follow him on YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/c/NutritionMadeSimple), Twitter / X (https://twitter.com/NutritionMadeS3), and Instagram (https://www.instagram.com/gilcarvalho.md/). • Staff • Spencer Greenberg (https://www.spencergreenberg.com/) — Host / Director • Josh Castle (mailto:joshrcastle@gmail.com) — Producer • Ryan Kessler (https://tone.support/) — Audio Engineer • Uri Bram (https://uribram.com/) — Factotum • WeAmplify (https://www.weamplify.info/) — Transcriptionists • Alexandria D. — Research and Special Projects Assistant • Music • Broke for Free (https://freemusicarchive.org/music/Broke_For_Free/Something_EP/Broke_For_Free_-_Something_EP_-_05_Something_Elated) • Josh Woodward (https://www.joshwoodward.com/song/AlreadyThere) • Lee Rosevere (https://archive.org/details/MusicForPodcasts04/Lee+Rosevere+-+Music+for+Podcasts+4+-+11+Keeping+Stuff+Together.flac) • Quiet Music for Tiny Robots (https://www.freemusicarchive.org/music/Quiet_Music_for_Tiny_Robots/The_February_Album/05_Tiny_Robot_Armies) • wowamusic (https://gamesounds.xyz/?dir=wowamusic) • zapsplat.com (https://www.zapsplat.com/music/summer-haze-slow-chill-out-house-track-with-a-modern-pop-feel-warm-piano-chords-underpin-the-track-with-warm-pads-and-a-repetitive-synth-arpeggio/) • Affiliates • Clearer Thinking (https://www.clearerthinking.org/) • GuidedTrack (https://guidedtrack.com/) • Mind Ease (https://mindease.io/) • Positly (https://positly.com/) • UpLift (https://www.uplift.app/) [Read more: https://podcast.clearerthinking.org/episode/212/gil-carvalho-what-we-know-and-don-t-know-about-nutrition]

Read the full transcript here. (https://podcast.clearerthinking.org/episode/211/#transcript) • Can we measure everything that matters to us? When is measuring the correlates of a thing pretty much just as good as measuring the thing itself? Why are some people resistant to measuring certain things? What are some things people should be measuring but aren't? What's the connection between measuring things and assigning probabilities to events? How much do we know about how well human intuition performs against "doing the math"? How inconsistent are we at applying our own principles in decision-making? What kinds of calibration training are effective? What is "value of information"? What is the Rule of 5? What are the top three things we can do to improve our decision-making? • Douglas Hubbard is an author, consultant, and recognized expert in decision theory and risk analysis. He has written several books on measurement and measuring risk. His work spans various industries including insurance, finance, pharmaceuticals, aerospace, military, energy, government, tech, and nonprofit organizations. Connect with Doug on LinkedIn (https://www.linkedin.com/in/dwhubbard/), email him at dwhubbard@hubbardresearch.com (mailto:dwhubbard@hubbardresearch.com), or learn more about his work at hubbardresearch.com (https://hubbardresearch.com/). • Further reading: • How to Measure Anything: Finding the Value of Intangibles in Business, by Douglas Hubbard (https://www.amazon.com/How-Measure-Anything-Intangibles-Business/dp/1118539273) • Applied Information Economics Academy (https://hubbardresearch.com/training/) (Doug's online calibration training) • Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences, by John Allen Paulos (https://www.amazon.com/Innumeracy-Mathematical-Illiteracy-Its-Consequences/dp/0809058405/ref=sr_1_4?crid=I3APCZCI7L8F;keywords=numeracy+paulos;qid=1702738550;s=books;sprefix=numeracy+paulo%2Cstripbooks%2C220;sr=1-4) • Clearer Thinking's "Calibrate Your Judgement" tool (https://programs.clearerthinking.org/calibrate_your_judgment.html) • Fatebook (https://fatebook.io/) • Staff • Spencer Greenberg (https://www.spencergreenberg.com/) — Host / Director • Josh Castle (mailto:joshrcastle@gmail.com) — Producer • Ryan Kessler (https://tone.support/) — Audio Engineer • Uri Bram (https://uribram.com/) — Factotum • WeAmplify (https://www.weamplify.info/) — Transcriptionists • Alexandria D. — Research and Special Projects Assistant • Music • Broke for Free (https://freemusicarchive.org/music/Broke_For_Free/Something_EP/Broke_For_Free_-_Something_EP_-_05_Something_Elated) • Josh Woodward (https://www.joshwoodward.com/song/AlreadyThere) • Lee Rosevere (https://archive.org/details/MusicForPodcasts04/Lee+Rosevere+-+Music+for+Podcasts+4+-+11+Keeping+Stuff+Together.flac) • Quiet Music for Tiny Robots (https://www.freemusicarchive.org/music/Quiet_Music_for_Tiny_Robots/The_February_Album/05_Tiny_Robot_Armies) • wowamusic (https://gamesounds.xyz/?dir=wowamusic) • zapsplat.com (https://www.zapsplat.com/music/summer-haze-slow-chill-out-house-track-with-a-modern-pop-feel-warm-piano-chords-underpin-the-track-with-warm-pads-and-a-repetitive-synth-arpeggio/) • Affiliates • Clearer Thinking (https://www.clearerthinking.org/) • GuidedTrack (https://guidedtrack.com/) • Mind Ease (https://mindease.io/) • Positly (https://positly.com/) • UpLift (https://www.uplift.app/) [Read more: https://podcast.clearerthinking.org/episode/211/doug-hubbard-measuring-everything-that-matters]