Insight Myanmar Insight Myanmar

Episode #244: Matthew Arnold details the aftermath of Operation 1027, and how this has dramatically shifted the landscape of conflict in Myanmar. The junta's inability to maintain control, compounded by losing key territories, showcases a dramatic shift in power dynamics. Arnold emphasizes that the ceasefire brokered by China, although seemingly significant, is more a tactical pause than a strategic peace, driven by the junta's need to save face amid substantial defeats.
The broader conflict is marked by a series of insurgencies and the junta's heavy reliance on violence against civilians, illustrating its desperation. Arnold points out that the junta's attempts to stabilize their rule through ceasefires often fail, revealing a pattern of transactional and insincere agreements meant to temporarily halt fighting rather than foster long-term political solutions.
Arnold’s insights highlight the junta's eroding military capacity, strained logistics, and diminishing strategic depth. This scenario underscores a critical juncture where local resistance, ethnic alliances, and international diplomatic pressures converge, potentially leading to the junta's collapse and a reconfiguration of Myanmar's political landscape.
Matthew Arnold concludes with a powerful message to those continuing on in the resistance movement: “The Myanmar people should take heart. This has been your revolution, you have been the ones who have pushed it, you've succeeded more than any other country has when confronted with a deeply entrenched, genocidal military, and one that is willing to use mass violence against the population. All of this has been through the determination and dedication of the Myanmar people.”

Episode #243: Kenneth Wong, a Burmese language teacher and translator, visited Thailand to connect with compatriots who have sought refuge there due to the conflict in Myanmar. While he enjoyed his stay in Mae Sot, a town with a significant Burmese presence, he soon realized that it was quite different for Burmese refugees: after a fraught journey across the Moei River to avoid capture, the community is plagued by fear, extortion by local authorities and a lack of prospects that keep many from even leaving their house, let along learning Thai. Despite these challenges, a strong Burmese community persists in Mae Sot, with hopes of returning home after political change. Kenneth reflects on the plight of previous generations of activists who remained in exile without assimilating, limiting their ability to aid current movements. He also notes instances of Thai kindness toward Burmese workers against the backdrop of a complicated, historical relationship.
At the end of the day, Kenneth is anything if not optimistic. “I'm hopeful that some of the activists and refugees I met, even though they are in a desperate situation with an uncertain future, they also turning around and helping people who are less fortunate, and helping people who arrive fresh off the boat as it were,” he says in closing. “I have nothing but admiration for them, for the fact that even though they are struggling, they seek reward in selfless acts. I think these are the people that in the post-coup Federal Union, the kind of democratic kind Burma that we envision, these are the kinds of young people who will lead to nation-rebuilding efforts. These are the kind of people who I hope could become a bridge to foster goodwill between Thailand and Burma, because if they go back, maybe they retain some fond memories of the good experiences that they've had in Thailand.”

Episode #242: The situation at the Myanmar-India border exemplifies the intersection of regional geopolitics, ethnic dynamics, and national security concerns. Angshuman Choudhury, a policy analyst, emphasizes that the northeast region of India, with its proximity and historical ties to Myanmar, plays a pivotal role in India's strategic calculus. The border, stretching 1,640 kilometers, is not just a line on a map, but a space of significant ethnic and cultural interaction that impacts local and national policies.
India's relationship with Myanmar is a pragmatic one, influenced by security concerns over insurgent groups finding refuge in Myanmar and the broader geopolitical landscape marked by China's growing influence. Choudhury notes that the Indian government’s Act East policy and investments in border infrastructure underscore an ambition to integrate its northeast region more closely with Southeast Asia, positioning it as a gateway to further economic and strategic opportunities.
However, the influx of refugees from Myanmar following the coup in 2021 has complicated this goal, highlighting internal policy contradictions. Choudhury notes that while Mizoram's government has shown humanitarian support for refugees because of its ethnic ties and local sentiment, the federal government has taken a more cautious approach, revealing a tension between regional and national security priorities.

In essence, Choudhury points out how the dynamics at the Myanmar-India border illustrate how local ethnic relations, national security policies, and international strategic interests converge, creating a complex tapestry that has both immediate and long-term implications for the region.

“As far as Myanmar is concerned, there is almost an across the board consensus [in New Delhi] that ‘we've got to play safe.’ There is an understanding that we need political stability in Myanmar in order to ensure economic development and economic relationship with India, and also to prevent the spillover of the conflict into northeast India,” he says. “In fact, in that sense, there is a bipartisan consensus between India's ruling party and opposition parties over this issue.”

Episode #241: “When we look back now, it's easier to look at that [transition] period darkly and dismiss it and say it was kind of a mirage,” says Timothy McLaughlin. “I do think there was there was were some real things happening and definitely benefits. Was it equal across the board? Of course not. And was it halting? Yes, for sure.”
McLaughlin, a seasoned journalist, begins by highlighting the initial optimism and significant economic changes that took place during this transition period, such as the telecom revolution and banking reforms, which provided tangible benefits despite the overarching political uncertainties and sporadic violence. He then critiques US policy towards Myanmar at that time, suggesting that the Obama administration’s early attempts were genuine but ultimately superficial. The initial post-coup U.S. response, he also argues, was performative and lacked substantial impact, revealing a broader issue with the efficacy of sanctions. He points out the problematic relationship between U.S. actions and the complex dynamics of Myanmar's geopolitical environment, particularly the role of China and regional actors like ASEAN and Thailand.

The discussion also touches on the significant humanitarian crisis in Myanmar, emphasizing the need for more innovative and localized approaches to aid distribution. McLaughlin underscores the frustration and sense of abandonment felt by the Myanmar people, contrasting the international community's initial enthusiasm with its subsequent apathy post-coup.

“Myanmar is not going back to what it was,” he says. “What it is in the future, we obviously don't know. But I don't think it's going back to what it was in 2012, or the 2003 era. Something fundamentally is changing here, and it's going to take a while for that all to be seen and sorted. Unfortunately, it's probably going to mean more lost lives and destruction. But I do think that something different is going to emerge from all this.”

Episode #240: Isabel Todd, speaking on behalf of the Special Advisory Council for Myanmar (SAC-M), provides a profound insight into the current situation in Myanmar, focusing on the country's struggle for justice and human rights amidst ongoing military atrocities.
A critical aspect of Todd's discussion is the international community's response to the crisis in Myanmar, or rather, the lack thereof. Despite the clear evidence of genocidal atrocities committed by the military against the Rohingya, and the ongoing human rights violations since the coup, ensuring accountability and justice still seem far off. The International Criminal Court (ICC) and the International Court of Justice (ICJ) have roles to play, but their capacities are limited by jurisdictional challenges and political complexities.

Todd emphasizes the importance of continued pressure on the international community to act decisively against the Myanmar military. She highlights the efforts of the SAC-M in advocating for the prosecution of military leaders for war crimes and crimes against humanity. This advocacy extends to urging the ICC to expand its limited investigation and for the international community to uphold its responsibility to protect vulnerable populations in Myanmar.

“It's so important to look at this beyond purely military terms, because this isn't a civil war. This is an uprising!” she says. “It's a revolution to rebuild what Myanmar is, and that's already happening! The sort of foundations of the federal democracy that will be established in the future, are already being built at that community and township level. This is an uprising that people are willing to happen, and there are acts of resistance that are taking place every day that aren't necessarily seen, but what's very clear as people are actively opposed to the junta.”

Episode #239: Phil Robertson paints a harrowing picture of the plight of Myanmar migrant workers in Thailand. He describes how migrant workers, driven by economic desperation from Myanmar, are ensnared in a system of exploitation and abuse on arriving in Thailand, despite legal frameworks intended to protect them. They face stagnant wages, hazardous working conditions, and an almost complete lack of legal protection. Employers frequently confiscate their passports, binding them to harsh and oppressive labor conditions under threat of deportation or worse.
The Thai police and immigration authorities, far from being protectors, often act as predators. Robertson recounts stories of police brutality, sexual assault, and extortion, with migrant workers viewed not as human beings but as sources of illicit income. The systemic corruption and lack of enforcement of labor laws create an environment where abuse is the norm, not the exception.

Robertson’s call to action is clear: significant legal and regulatory reforms are needed to protect the rights of migrant workers. He emphasizes the importance of international pressure and the role of NGOs in shining a light on these abuses. Only through concerted effort and awareness can the cycle of exploitation be broken, and dignity restored to these vulnerable workers.

“I would hope that there would be an effort to somehow impress upon the Thais that eventually there's going to be peace, and eventually there's going to be a representative democratic government in Myanmar, and the people who run that government are going to be looking at how Thailand treated them and their compatriots during their hard times. Unless Thailand takes some corrective action, then Thai-Myanmar relations are going to suffer in the future because of these kinds of abuses against ordinary people.”