Money For the Rest of Us Money For the Rest of Us
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A personal finance and investing podcast on money, how it works, how to invest it and how to live without worrying about it. J. David Stein is a former Chief Investment Strategist and money manager. For close to two decades, he has been teaching individuals and institutions how to invest and handle their finances in ways that are simple to understand. More info at moneyfortherestofus.com
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National Debt Masterclass Finale - What To Do
In part three of our national debt masterclass, we share a simple debt dynamics formula we can monitor to help guide our investment choices.
Topics covered include:How much has the national debt grown over the past fifties years, and what are the underlying driversHow the budget deficit, interest rates, and economic growth determine the level and growth in the national debtUnder what circumstances will the U.S. default on its debtHow should we invest to protect ourselves from the uncertainties of the national debt situation
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Show Notes
Jerome Powell: Full 2024 60 Minutes interview transcript—CBS News
Yellen says she disagrees with Moody's outlook on US debt by Ann Saphir and David Lawder—Reuters
IMF Steps Up Its Warning to US Over Spending and Ballooning Debt by Christopher Condon—Bloomberg
WHEN DOES FEDERAL DEBT REACH UNSUSTAINABLE LEVELS?—Penn Wharton
The Long-Term Budget Outlook: 2024 to 2054—Congressional Budget Office
PUBLIC DEBT AND LOW INTEREST RATES by Olivier J. Blanchard—NBER
Bond vigilantes snooze as Treasury market shrugs off vast US borrowing by Kate Duguid—The Financial Times
Term Premium on a 10 Year Zero Coupon Bond—FRED
Instantaneous Forward Term Premium 10 Years Hence—FRED
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National Debt Masterclass Part Two
In part two of this national debt series, we explore how households and businesses, including commercial banks, can choose not to participate in what some call a national debt ponzi scheme. We also look at how central banks and federal governments monetize the national debt using quantitative easing.
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Show Notes
Credit and Liquidity Programs and the Balance Sheet: Federal Reserve liabilities—Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
As of and for the Years Ended December 31, 2019 and 2018 and Independent Auditors’ Report—The United States Federal Reserve System
Different types of central bank insolvency and the central role of seignorage by Ricardo Reis
How do central banks control inflation? A guide for the perplexed by Laura Castillo-Martinez and Ricardo Reis
Can the Central Bank Alleviate Fiscal Burdens? by Ricardo Reis
Ricardo Reis Tweets on Monetizing the National Debt
M2—Federal Reserve Economic Data
Assets: Total Assets: Total Assets: Wednesday Level—Federal Reserve Economic Data
Assets: Securities Held Outright: U.S. Treasury Securities: All: Wednesday Level—Federal Reserve Economic Data
Americans Reported Strong Personal Finances Late Last Year, Fed Finds by David Harrison—The Wall Street Journal
A Complete Guide to Understanding and Protecting Against Inflation—Money For the Rest of Us
A Complete Guide to Investing in TIPS and I Bonds—Money For the Rest of Us
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National Debt Master Class Part One of Three
In part one of this three part series, we consider why a country that issues debt in its own currency can't default unless it chooses to. We also explore how central banks can control interest rates on the national debt. We also consider whether it is possible for government borrowing to crowd out the private sector.
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Show Notes
Money In The Modern Economy: An Introduction – Bank of England – Q1 2014
Money Creation In The Modern Economy – Bank of England – Q1 2014
Congressional Budget Office 2017 Long-term Budget Outlook
Going for Broke: Deficits, Debt, and the Entitlement Crisis – Michael D. Tanner
Bernanke’s Paradox: Can He Reconcile His Position on the Federal Budget with His Recent Charge to Prevent Deflation? – Pavlina R. Tcherneva – Levy Institute (includes quotes referenced in episode by Ben Bernanke and Michael Woodford
New Framework for Strengthening Monetary Easing: “Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing with Yield Curve Control” – Bank of Japan
Japan’s Debt Burden Is Quietly Falling the Most in the World – Bloomberg
The Bone Clocks – David Mitchell
Venezuela Is Starving – Juan Forero – Wall Street Journal
Curse or Blessing? How Institutions Determine Success in Resource-Rich Economies – Cato Institute
Forget Taxes, Warren Buffett Says. The Real Problem Is Health Care. – New York Times
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Is Small Cap Dead? Why You Shouldn't Abandon Small Cap Stocks
Why global small-cap stocks have underperformed large-cap stocks and will the trend continue? The investment case for allocating to global small caps.
Topics covered include:How have small caps performed relative to large caps over the past two decadesWhat factors contributed to the underperformanceHow quality is an important factor to consider when investing in small capsWhat are the earnings prospects for small-cap stocksWhy small-cap stocks could deliver double-digit returns over the next decade
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Show Notes
US small-caps suffer worst run against larger stocks in over 20 years by George Steer—The Financial Times
Small stocks, big problems by Robin Wigglesworth—The Financial Times
The Death of Small Cap Equities? by Chris Satterthwaite—Verdad
The Quality of New Entrants by Chris Satterthwaite—Verdad
Related Episodes
466: Does Dividend Investing Still Work?
370: Should You Invest in Small-Cap and Mid-Cap Stocks?
253: Are IPOs the New Ponzi Scheme?
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Inflation's Illusion: Debunking the Normalcy of Currency Debasesment
It is not normal to want prices to rise and currencies to lose their purchasing power. We look at the advantages of stable currencies and prices.
Topics covered include:What's more normal, an inflationary or deflationary mindset?Why it is more normal for prices to fall due to productivity increasesHow central banks seek to overcome productivity-induced deflation by increasing the money supplyHow inflation and ongoing currency debasement encourage debt, the financialization of housing, and keep unprofitable companies in businessHow gold, Bitcoin, stocks, real estate, and other assets help us overcome currency debasement
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Show Notes
Is Japan finally becoming a "normal" economy?—The Financial Times
Broken Money by Lyn Alden
A Complete Guide to Understanding and Protecting Against Inflation—Money for the Rest of Us
Related Episodes
431: The Long-term Bullish Case for Gold
429: Which Inflation Protection Strategies Worked and Which Didn’t?
389: Is Airbnb Intensifying the Housing Crisis?
253: Are IPOs the New Ponzi Scheme?
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Are Emerging Markets Bonds a Once in a Generation Opportunity?
Some analysts suggest that now is an incredibly attractive entry point to invest in emerging market bonds. We look at how to do this and whether you should.
Topics covered include:How emerging markets bonds have performed relative to U.S. bondsHow frequently have emerging markets bonds defaultedWhat is the difference between local currency and U.S. dollar-denominated emerging markets bondsWhy emerging markets nations are reformingWhat are the ways to invest in emerging markets bonds and what factors should you consider
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Show Notes
Emerging Local Debt: A Once-In-A-Generation Opportunity? by Victoria Courmes—GMO
EM Sovereign Defaults at Record Level, but Rating Outlooks More Balanced—Fitch Ratings
The big opportunity in emerging market debt by Victoria Courmes—The Financial Times
Default Risk Fades in Emerging Markets as Riskiest Bonds Soar by Zijia Song, Giovanna Bellotti Azevedo, and Srinivasan Sivabalan—Bloomberg
The weakest links in the global economy are on the mend by Ruchir Sharma—The Financial Times
How to invest in closed-end funds - Money for the Rest of Us
Investments Mentioned
iShares JP Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF (EMB)
iShares JP Morgan Emerging Markets Local Currency Bond ETF (LEMB)
DoubleLine Low Duration Emerging Markets Fixed Income Fund (DELNX)
DoubleLine Emerging Markets Fixed Income Fund (DLENX)
Virtus Stone Harbor Emerging Markets Income ETF (EDF)
DoubleLine Income Solutions Fund (DSL)
Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets Debt Fund (MSD)
Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets Domestic Debt Fund (MSD)
Related Episodes
411: Is Emerging and Frontier Markets Investing Still Worth It? – With Asha Mehta
How to Invest in Closed-End Funds
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