Money For the Rest of Us Money For the Rest of Us

How a few high-impact successes drive up overall average outcomes in investing, business, and creative projects. How to harness positive skewness using a barbell approach. Learn when to mitigate risks and when to embrace them.

Topics covered include:What is positive skewness and how does it manifest in investing, business and creative endeavorsHow power laws and the 80/20 rule workWhy we shouldn't beat ourselves up if we aren't incredibly successfulWhen should we reduce positive skewness and when should we embrace it


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Show Notes

Long-Term Shareholder Returns: Evidence from 64,000 Global Stocks by Hendrik Bessembinder, Te-Feng Chen, Goeun Choi, K.C. John Wei—SSRN

Long-Horizon Stock Returns Are Positively Skewed by Adam Farago and Erik Hjalmarsson—SSRN

Wealth Creation in the U.S. Public Stock Markets 1926 to 2019 by Hendrik Bessembinder—SSRN

The Coffee Can portfolio by Robert G. Kirby—csinvesting

Active vs Passive Investing U.S. Barometer Report—Morningstar

Table 7. Survival of private sector establishments by opening year—U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

How Many Podcasts Are There? (New 2024 Data) by Josh Howarth—Exploding Topics

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Why are homeowners seeing home insurance premiums increases of up to 70%, as David has? What can you do if your insurer drops you, you get a huge premium increase, or you can no longer afford coverage?

Topics covered include:What are the primary drivers of home insurance price increasesWhy these increases don't show up in the U.S. consumer price indexHow the reinsurance market works and why reinsurers are passing on 50% premium increases to property and casualty insurers.What percentage of home insurers self-insureWhat else can homeowners do


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Show Notes

Home Insurance Is Clobbering Consumers. Yet It’s Barely Counted in Inflation. by Jeanna Smialek—The New York Times

NIPA Handbook: Concepts and Methods of the U.S. National Income and Product Accounts: Chapter 5: Personal Consumption Expenditures—Bureau of Economic Analysis

The crippling home insurance crisis hitting America by Rana Forhoohar—The Financial Times

The Hidden Driver of Soaring Home Insurance Costs by Jean Eaglesham—The Wall Street Journal

When Disaster Strikes: Preparing for Climate Change by Seán Nolan and Krishna Srinivasan—IMF Blog

Home insurance was once a ‘must.’ Now more homeowners are going without. by Patrick Cooley—The Washington Post

Homeowners Perception of Weather Risks 2023 Q2 Consumer Survey—Insurance Information Institute

Insurance Companies Feeling the Pressure in Iowa and the Midwest by Jerry Theodorou—Insurance Journal

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Why stock, ETF, and bond trades are optimized to settle in less than a day, allowing investors quicker access to their cash and securities. What are the benefits and costs of optimization in the relentless drive for cheaper, faster, and more profitable.Why countries are moving to T+1 settlement from T+2 for security tradesWhat will it take for securHow BlackRock and Franklin have launched Treasury funds that are tokenized and trade on the Etherium networkHow optimization works and what are the tradeoffsHow we can use satisficing and rules of thumb in order to cope with the complexity of the world


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Show Notes

About the ‘T+1’ Rule Making US Stocks Settle in a Day by Lydia Beyoud and Greg Ritchie—Bloomberg

SEC Chair Gensler Statement on Upcoming Implementation of T+1 Settlement Cycle—SEC

What faster trading cycles will mean for US markets by Jennifer Hughes and Harriet Clarfelt—The Financial Times

Speedier Wall Street Trades Are Putting Global Finance On Edge by Greg Ritchie—Bloomberg

BlackRock closes in on crown of world’s largest bitcoin fund by Will Schmitt and Brooke Masters—The Financial Times

Optimal Illusions: The False Promise of Optimization by Coco Krumme

Financial Statement Analysis with Large Language Models by Alex G. Kim, Maximilian Muhn, and Valeri V. Nikolaev—The University of Chicago

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228: How Tokenization Will Radically Change Investing




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In part three of our national debt masterclass, we share a simple debt dynamics formula we can monitor to help guide our investment choices.

Topics covered include:How much has the national debt grown over the past fifties years, and what are the underlying driversHow the budget deficit, interest rates, and economic growth determine the level and growth in the national debtUnder what circumstances will the U.S. default on its debtHow should we invest to protect ourselves from the uncertainties of the national debt situation


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Show Notes

Jerome Powell: Full 2024 60 Minutes interview transcript—CBS News

Yellen says she disagrees with Moody's outlook on US debt by Ann Saphir and David Lawder—Reuters

IMF Steps Up Its Warning to US Over Spending and Ballooning Debt by Christopher Condon—Bloomberg

WHEN DOES FEDERAL DEBT REACH UNSUSTAINABLE LEVELS?—Penn Wharton

The Long-Term Budget Outlook: 2024 to 2054—Congressional Budget Office

PUBLIC DEBT AND LOW INTEREST RATES by Olivier J. Blanchard—NBER

Bond vigilantes snooze as Treasury market shrugs off vast US borrowing by Kate Duguid—The Financial Times

Term Premium on a 10 Year Zero Coupon Bond—FRED

Instantaneous Forward Term Premium 10 Years Hence—FRED

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In part two of this national debt series, we explore how households and businesses, including commercial banks, can choose not to participate in what some call a national debt ponzi scheme. We also look at how central banks and federal governments monetize the national debt using quantitative easing.

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Show Notes

Credit and Liquidity Programs and the Balance Sheet: Federal Reserve liabilities—Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

As of and for the Years Ended December 31, 2019 and 2018 and Independent Auditors’ Report—The United States Federal Reserve System

Different types of central bank insolvency and the central role of seignorage by Ricardo Reis

How do central banks control inflation? A guide for the perplexed by Laura Castillo-Martinez and Ricardo Reis

Can the Central Bank Alleviate Fiscal Burdens? by Ricardo Reis

Ricardo Reis Tweets on Monetizing the National Debt

M2—Federal Reserve Economic Data

Assets: Total Assets: Total Assets: Wednesday Level—Federal Reserve Economic Data

Assets: Securities Held Outright: U.S. Treasury Securities: All: Wednesday Level—Federal Reserve Economic Data

Americans Reported Strong Personal Finances Late Last Year, Fed Finds by David Harrison—The Wall Street Journal

A Complete Guide to Understanding and Protecting Against Inflation—Money For the Rest of Us

A Complete Guide to Investing in TIPS and I Bonds—Money For the Rest of Us

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In part one of this three part series, we consider why a country that issues debt in its own currency can't default unless it chooses to. We also explore how central banks can control interest rates on the national debt. We also consider whether it is possible for government borrowing to crowd out the private sector.

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Show Notes

Money In The Modern Economy: An Introduction – Bank of England – Q1 2014

Money Creation In The Modern Economy – Bank of England – Q1 2014

Congressional Budget Office 2017 Long-term Budget Outlook

Going for Broke: Deficits, Debt, and the Entitlement Crisis – Michael D. Tanner

Bernanke’s Paradox: Can He Reconcile His Position on the Federal Budget with His Recent Charge to Prevent Deflation? – Pavlina R. Tcherneva – Levy Institute (includes quotes referenced in episode by Ben Bernanke and Michael Woodford

New Framework for Strengthening Monetary Easing: “Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing with Yield Curve Control” – Bank of Japan

Japan’s Debt Burden Is Quietly Falling the Most in the World – Bloomberg

The Bone Clocks – David Mitchell

Venezuela Is Starving – Juan Forero – Wall Street Journal

Curse or Blessing? How Institutions Determine Success in Resource-Rich Economies – Cato Institute

Forget Taxes, Warren Buffett Says. The Real Problem Is Health Care. – New York Times

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