The Interchange: Recharged Wood Mackenzie

Estimates for the cost of decarbonising could be inaccurate. What does that mean for investment and policy-making?

About $1.2 trillion is invested annually in climate technology and infrastructure worldwide, with significant portions allocated to China due to its accelerated decarbonization goals. However, experts argue that about $9 trillion could be needed annually to effectively counter climate change, indicating a substantial gap in current funding​. Debate continues over the economic feasibility of such costs, to the detriment of progress, but what if the cost was actually far less? RMI, the research and clean energy advocacy group, says that this may indeed be the case. These forecasts could be overinflated by trillions of dollars. If that’s true, what will it mean for investors, markets and policy? 

Host David Banmiller is joined by Dan Goldman, managing partner at Clean Energy Ventures, a VC that funds startups developing early stage breakthrough technologies. He says the there’s a significant investment shortfall – regardless of the total cost of decarbonising – currently to stabilise global temperatures. He discusses a downturn in venture capital investments in climate tech, particularly affecting early-stage companies and innovation in new technologies. Challenges remain in scaling up clean energy technologies due to a combination of high interest rates, inflationary pressures, and supply chain disruptions, which increase costs and complicate project implementations.

There's a specific shortfall in investment for infrastructure necessary for large-scale renewable energy implementations, like wind and solar, which are essential for a robust energy transition. David and Dan discuss how this could be addressed, and analyse the current economic environment, characterized by high costs and uncertain returns.  

Is it these barriers that are hindering significant capital flow into this sector, or the forecasted cost for decarbonising global energy systems? How can global financial strategies be adjusted to accelerate the necessary investments in clean energy and technology? Find out on the show.

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SMRs: a new horizon in Nuclear Power.

This week on The Interchange: Recharged, David is joined by Ted Nordhaus, Executive Director at the Breakthrough Institute, an environmental research centre in Berkley, California. They focus on finding technological solutions to environmental problems.

Achieving a net-zero emission grid by 2050, they claim, with a significant nuclear component would not only be feasible but also cost-effective compared to over-reliance on variable renewable energy sources. This approach requires substantial investment, estimated between US$150 to US$220 billion by 2035, escalating to over a trillion dollars by 2050. Together Ted and David discuss the likelihood that the private sector will drive this investment, provided that nuclear technologies are economically viable and regulatory uncertainties are addressed. They look at the Build Nuclear Now campaign, which aims to rally public support for nuclear energy and drive towards grassroots pro-nuclear advocacy. Is this a sign that public sentiment is changing?

The main challenges hindering the adoption of nuclear energy include regulatory hurdles, financial barriers and ongoing concerns surrounding nuclear safety. Ted explains that regulatory reform and public sector commitment could overcome these obstacles. The Nuclear Energy Innovation and Modernization Act are examples of a policy aimed at modernising the regulatory environment, to facilitate the licensing of advanced nuclear reactors.

So, are SMRs the solution to everything nuclear? They’re designed to produce between 50 to 300 MW of electricity per module, which is about one-third of the generation capacity of traditional nuclear power reactors. NuScale's design (listen back to our episode from April last year for more on this) for instance, is for a 77 MW module, with plans to deploy modules in groups that can generate up to 924 MW. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has been actively supporting SMR development, investing over US$600 million in the past decade to assist in the design, licensing and siting of new SMR technologies in the U.S. The technology seems to be there, as does the baseline investment.

What’s next for the nuclear industry? Listen to find out.

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New battery technology could get EV prices down and drive mass adoption

In this week’s episode of Wood Mackenzie’s The Interchange Recharged, host David Banmiller looks at the rapidly evolving landscape of EVs and the battery technology that powers them. Market sentiment in the US is up and down; despite a 40% sales increase from the last quarter of 2022 to the same period in 2023, the industry is struggling with competition from China amid a price war. Batteries have a critical role to play in accelerating mass EV adoption and so their dramatic cost reduction - nearly 90% over the past 14 years – has potentially sparked an EV revolution.

Joining David is Haresh Kamath, an expert in energy storage and clean tech from the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI). Together, they explore the nuances of battery economics, the potential of cutting-edge technologies like solid-state batteries and the imperative of developing efficient recycling methods to sustain this green momentum.

They examine the challenges of scaling EV infrastructure and supply chains, looking forward at the technologies that will continue to drive down costs and extend EV ranges.

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A breakthrough way of producing hydrocarbons, crucial to the aviation industry, could reduce costs and accelerate decarbonisation.

Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) is a key component in the aviation industry's path to decarbonization, which contributes to only 2% of global carbon emissions but is actively seeking cleaner solutions. Airbus and other aerospace companies are leading the charge, with Airbus integrating over 11 million litres of SAF in its operations in 2023, reducing carbon emissions significantly. The industry aims to increase SAF production to 17.5 billion litres by 2030, supported by initiatives like the IRA. 

On this episode of Wood Mackenzie's The Interchange Recharged, David Banmiller speaks with Andrew Symes, founder and CEO of OXCCU. They’re developing a more efficient way of converting CO2 and hydrogen into hydrocarbons, potentially a monumental step towards more scalable and environmentally-friendly fuels. 

Despite technological advancements, challenges in financing, regulatory support, and talent acquisition persist. SAF's integration with existing aviation infrastructure without the need for modifications is one key benefit; it could create a smoother transition to greener aviation, with expectations for SAF to achieve cost parity with Jet A fuel (the current standard) as technology and scale improve. The SAF industry enjoys broad support from airlines, governments, and regulatory initiatives, who are pushing for increased SAF adoption towards a net-zero future by 2050. The technology behind SAF, and as Andrew explains, the science behind OXCCU, not only promises to revolutionize aviation but also has applications in producing chemicals and plastics, signalling a broader impact on sustainability across various sectors and the goal of a circular economy.

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Half of the energy workforce is employed in clean energy technologies. By 2030, over 10 million new jobs will need to be filled as the energy transition continues. China, for example, employs 3 million workers in clean energy manufacturing – accounting for 80% of solar PV and EV battery manufacturing jobs globally. Skill shortages are as significant a bottleneck as lack of investment or supply chain constraints, so how can the industry ensure there’s enough people to build, maintain and design clean energy infrastructure?

On the show today, David Banmiller is joined by Caleigh Andrews, Energy Analyst and Modeller at the International Energy Agency. The IEA emphasises the need for clear policies that drive demand for clean technologies, in order to attract and retain skilled labor. Reskilling and attracting new people to the energy workforce require a combination of market incentives and political will, so what are these incentives? And what can governments do to incentivise reskilling?

AI can play a role in easing the skilling burden and establishing standardised credentials, but with manufacturing and maintenance a large part of it, are the use cases for AI limited?

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Recent legislation in the US promises to be a boon for geothermal energy production.

In January, the US House Energy and Commerce Committee passed a bipartisan bill that could have a big impact on the geothermal sector. Effectively putting geothermal on the same footing as oil and gas - by excluding geothermal development from strict NEPA rules – the bill could cut the red tape and boost production in the sector.

Geothermal has a lot of potential. The DOE estimates it could contribute almost 10% of US energy capacity by 2050. New geothermal technology, which uses horizontal drilling to drill multiple wells into geothermal reservoirs from a single location, is a promising start, but more innovation is needed to become cost competitive.

Joining David to discuss the legislation, and the technology that underpins the geothermal sector, are Dr Joseph Moore - Research Professor at the University of Utah and Managing Principal Investigator at Utah FORGE, a geothermal research facility managed by the Energy & Geoscience Institute at the University of Utah, and sponsored by the DOE – and Lauren Boyd, Director of the EERE’s Geothermal Technologies Office, which is sponsoring the Utah FORGE laboratory. 

Together they examine the cost, operation and scope for geothermal energy in the US.

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