东谈西‪论‬ 联合早报 Lianhe Zaobao

美国前总统特朗普5月30日被裁定他在封口费案件中的三十四项重罪全部成立。特朗普在走出法院时称判决“可耻”，受到操纵，并出言攻击法官腐败。他称自己非常无辜，还指控这是总统拜登对他的打击。

特朗普被控伪造商业记录以掩盖他在2016年总统选举期间，支付十三万美元给一个色情女明星换取对方不公开他们有性关系的事实。支付封口费在美国不算什么罪。问题是特朗普涉嫌伪造记录掩饰自己用政治捐款来支付个人的封口费。他因此成为美国历史上第一位被判有罪的前总统。法官将在7月11日判刑，特朗普可能被判处监禁和巨额罚款。

特朗普会不会成为第一位在狱中当选的总统？他如果当选，又会对美国与美国的外交政策带来什么影响？

这期的早报播客《东谈西论》，听主持人韩咏红和中华战略学会资深研究员张竞详细解析特朗普被定罪会如何影响他二度竞选美国总统之路。

延伸阅读：


【早知】“封口费”案罪名成立 特朗普还能当总统吗？
陈留俊：特朗普与“十二怒汉”——美国社会又一窗口

Donald Trump became the first U.S. president to be convicted of a crime as he makes a bid to return to the White House. A 12-member New York jury found him guilty on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records. 

The jurors unanimously agreed that Trump falsified documents to conceal a $130,000 hush money payment to former porn star Stormy Daniels during the 2016 presidential election campaign.

Speaking outside the courthouse after the verdict, Trump claimed that the trial was “rigged” against him and he was a “very innocent man”. He called the verdict a “disgrace” and accused President Joe Biden of orchestrating the prosecution. 

The conviction does not prevent Trump from running for president. If Trump were to defeat Mr Biden in the November’s election, he would become the first convicted criminal to occupy the White House. How will his guilty verdict sway the U.S. presidential election? If Trump is elected, what are the ramifications for the U.S. and its foreign policy?

In this episode of Global Heartbeat podcast, host Han Yong Hong discusses the impact of Trump’s conviction on his presidential bid with Chang Ching, Non-Resident Research Fellow, Society for Strategic Studies.

Hosted by Lianhe Zaobao’s Associate Editor, Han Yong Hong, Global Heartbeat is a Mandarin weekly news and current affairs podcast that is updated every Tuesday, 7.00 PM SGT. It is available on zaobao.sg, Apple Podcast, Google Podcasts, Spotify and other podcast platforms.
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

今年1月下旬开始，中国股市跑赢全球，成为2024年全球资本市场的一个小亮点。其中，中国大陆与香港上市的中国房地产股，过去一个月来也大幅上涨。

与此同时，今年第一季度中国GDP同比增长5.3%，超出预期。最新公布的4月份工业利润增长4.0%，增速回升7.5个百分点。

中国经济已经触底反弹了吗？在积极的势头上，中共中央政治局确定将在7月召开三中全会。中国国家主席习近平不久前还召开了企业和专家座谈会。这是否意味着中国将进一步采取更多刺激经济的政策？中国经济复苏的道路，还会面对哪些风险？

这期的早报播客《东谈西论》，听主持人韩咏红与中国经济学者、辽宁大学特聘研究员陈波教授详细解析中国经济触底回升。

延伸阅读：


习近平促改革就业住房等八领域 分析：预告三中全会关注领域
陈婧：迟来的刺激政策

China’s stock market has been outperforming global markets since January, with the Chinese real estate stocks listed in mainland China and Hong Kong also seeing significant rises in the past month.  

China's GDP growth in the first quarter surpassed expectations with a robust 5.3% increase year-on-year. Industrial profits in April mirrored this optimism, climbing by 4.0% and marking a notable rebound in growth rate by 7.5 percentage points.

Amid the positive outlook, the Chinese Communist Party’s central committee will hold its third plenary session in July. Is China’s economy bottoming out and on the path to recovery? What are the risks? Will China roll out more policies to stimulate the economy after Chinese President Xi Jinping's recent symposium with business leaders and experts?

In this episode of Global Heartbeat podcast, Chinese academic and Adjunct Professor of Economics at Liaoning University Chen Bo shares his in-depth analysis of China's economic rebound with host Han Yong Hong.

Hosted by Lianhe Zaobao’s Associate Editor, Han Yong Hong, Global Heartbeat is a Mandarin weekly news and current affairs podcast that is updated every Tuesday, 7.00 PM SGT. It is available on zaobao.sg, Apple Podcast, Google Podcasts, Spotify and other podcast platforms.
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

今年初的台湾大选中，在三角战的情况下以四成选票胜选的赖清德在5月20日宣誓就职，标志着台湾正式进入赖清德时代。

赖清德的就职演说延续蔡英文的说法，重申中华民国与中华人民共和国互不隶属。他对台湾的名称也做了进一步的论述。演讲中，赖清德也直接指中国威胁台湾，要求民众不能有幻想。

中国大陆国台办马上发文批评赖清德的讲话坚持顽固台独立场，大肆宣扬分裂谬论，充分暴露了其“台独工作者”的本性。

学者评论赖清德的就职演说，已经是若隐若现的台独。这会如何牵动两岸关系？美国在赖清德的表态中扮演什么角色？在赖清德就职后，台湾海峡将迎来什么局势？两岸风高浪急的时代来临了吗？

这期的早报播客《东谈西论》，听主持人韩咏红和淡江大学荣誉教授、亚太和平研究基金会及远景基金会首席顾问赵春山分析台湾新任总统赖清德的就职演说。

延伸阅读：


马英九批赖清德就职演说：让两岸关系立刻面临不可预测风险
赖清德进一步阐述两岸互不隶属 强调台湾是民主世界MVP

Lai Ching-te was sworn in as Taiwan's president on May 20 after winning the election with 40% of the vote in a three-way race. In his inaugural address, Lai reaffirmed that Taiwan and China are not subordinate to each other and directly addressed the threat from China, urging the public to remain vigilant.

China's Taiwan Affairs Office swiftly condemned Lai's speech, accusing him of promoting pro-independence rhetoric. Scholars noted that Lai's speech subtly suggested a pro-independence stance, raising questions about the future of cross-strait relations and the role of the United States. Lai's inauguration signals potential heightened tensions in the Taiwan Strait.

In this episode of Global Heartbeat podcast, host Han Yong Hong and Tamkang University’s Graduate Institute of China Studies Honorary Professor Chao Chun-Shan analyse the significance of Lai’s inaugural address.

Hosted by Lianhe Zaobao’s Associate Editor, Han Yong Hong, Global Heartbeat is a Mandarin weekly news and current affairs podcast that is updated every Tuesday, 7.00 PM SGT. It is available on zaobao.sg, Apple Podcast, Google Podcasts, Spotify and other podcast platforms.
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

中国与菲律宾南中国海主权争议再次升温，两国最近又因为在南中国海仁爱礁（菲律宾称阿云津礁）搁浅的一艘破船，闹出录音门事件。

中国外交官员今年4月以来一再声称，中国曾经与菲律宾针对如何管控局势达成过君子协议、内部谅解以及新模式。之后，中国公布了一段两分钟的录音，证明菲律宾西部军区司令卡洛斯答应新模式。

但是，菲律宾外交部以及军方官员都否认有这样的协议。菲律宾国家安全顾问阿尼奥指责中国捏造假信息，甚至公开提出要驱逐中国驻菲律宾的外交官。

中国和菲律宾各执一词，到底谁在说谎？仁爱礁搁浅船只的运补争议，又会如何收场？

这期的早报播客《东谈西论》，听主持人韩咏红和国际新闻组主任吴汉钧详细解析。

延伸阅读：


菲国安顾问要求驱逐涉通话录音事件中国外交官
下午察：防南中国海成“亚洲的乌克兰”

The South China Sea dispute between China and the Philippines continues to escalate following an alleged phone leak. 

Last week, a news report surfaced claiming a leak of the phone conversation between a Chinese diplomat and a Filipino admiral. The conversation reportedly involved the admiral agreeing to concessions with China over the South China Sea.

Philippine Defence Minister Gilbert Teodoro said in a statement that his department was "not aware of, nor is it a party to, any internal agreement with China". Additionally, the Philippines' national security adviser Eduardo Ano called for the expulsion of Chinese diplomats. 

In this episode of Global Heartbeat podcast, Lianhe Zaobao’s Second Foreign Editor (Southeast Asia) Ng Hon Kuan joins host Han Yong Hong to discuss the rising tensions between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea.  

Hosted by Lianhe Zaobao’s Associate Editor, Han Yong Hong, Global Heartbeat is a Mandarin weekly news and current affairs podcast that is updated every Tuesday, 7.00 PM SGT. It is available on zaobao.sg, Apple Podcast, Google Podcasts, Spotify and other podcast platforms.
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

美国4月下旬开始爆发自越战以来最大规模的大学生示威。

由于同情巴勒斯坦人的遭遇并且不满校方和美国政府在以哈冲突中的表现，全美各地多所大学爆发示威浪潮，学生们在校园里安营扎寨，不肯离去，要求学校从支持以色列政府的企业撤资。

在校方报警后，纽约、洛杉矶等城市的警察5月1日强行进入学校清场。美国政治领导人不同情或支持学生，总统拜登还发表演讲谴责暴力示威是违法的。

这场学生的抗争还没有完全平息。激烈的示威活动，反映了美国社会什么问题？它又会对美国的政治，以及今年11月的美国总统大选产生什么影响?

这期的早报播客《东谈西论》，听主持人韩咏红和新加坡管理大学李光前商学院副教授傅方剑解析这场校园示威活动。

延伸阅读：


杜志远：美国校园示威凸显新思潮动向
韩咏红：美国校园示威中的社会对立

In late April, the United States witnessed its largest wave of student demonstrations since the Vietnam War. 

Triggered by sympathy for the plight of Palestinians and dissatisfaction with the handling of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict by both university administrations and the US government, protests have sprung up at various universities across the nation. Students pitched tents and occupied buildings, demanding that universities cut financial ties with companies supporting the Israeli government.

After the universities requested help, police officers entered the campuses to clear the encampments in cities such as New York and Los Angeles. 

The protests have become a political flashpoint, with Biden condemning campus protest violence. 

What are the broader societal issues reflected by the student demonstrations in the US? What is the impact of this unrest on US politics and the upcoming presidential election in November?

In this episode of Global Heartbeat podcast, Associate Professor of Finance from the Singapore Management University’s Lee Kong Chian School of Business, Fu Fangjian, joins host Han Yong Hong to discuss the US campus protests.

Hosted by Lianhe Zaobao’s Associate Editor, Han Yong Hong, Global Heartbeat is a Mandarin weekly news and current affairs podcast that is updated every Tuesday, 7.00 PM SGT. It is available on zaobao.sg, Apple Podcast, Google Podcasts, Spotify and other podcast platforms.
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

在短短一个月，越南接连发生两场高层地震。政坛第四号人物，国会主席王廷惠因为 “违反党员行为禁令”，在4月26日引咎辞职。此前的一个月，越南第二号人物，国家主席武文赏也因为违反了“党员严禁” 规定而辞职。第二和第四号人物纷纷倒台也代表越南政坛四大支柱接连倒了两根。

武文赏和王廷惠落马并非无迹可寻。在他们辞职的前几天，他们的前下属都因为腐败问题被警方逮捕。2023年1月，武文赏的前任、原越南国家主席阮春福也因为下属违规而辞职。

越南政治的四大支柱成了不断变化的走马灯，震撼各界。政治观察员指河内正陷入严重政治动荡。这是反腐败的成效，还是权力斗争？

这期的早报播客《东谈西论》，听主持人韩咏红和新加坡尤索夫伊萨东南亚研究院访问研究员阮清江解析越南的政治动荡。

延伸阅读：


两年两国家主席辞职 越南政局动荡 反贪运动任重道远
吴俊刚：张美兰的故事

The recent resignations and arrests of high-ranking officials in Vietnam indicate a significant upheaval in the country’s political landscape, sending shockwaves across various sectors. 

The chairman of Vietnam’s Parliament Vuong Dinh Hue resigned over his “violations and shortcomings” on April 26, just weeks after the high-profile resignation of the country’'s second-in-command, President Vo Van Thuong. In the days leading up to the resignations, their subordinates were also arrested by authorities on corruption charges. 

Political analysts have warned that Hanoi is embroiled in serious political turmoil. On one hand, these developments could be interpreted as a sign of anti-corruption efforts gaining traction. However, they could also be symptomatic of power struggles within the ruling party. 

In this episode of Global Heartbeat podcast, host Han Yong Hong and Visiting Senior Fellow at ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute Nguyen Thanh Giang discuss Vietnam’s deepening leadership crisis.

Hosted by Lianhe Zaobao’s Associate Editor, Han Yong Hong, Global Heartbeat is a Mandarin weekly news and current affairs podcast that is updated every Tuesday, 7.00 PM SGT. It is available on zaobao.sg, Apple Podcast, Google Podcasts, Spotify and other podcast platforms.
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.