51 min.
#245: January 2024 Market Update - Reinvigorated buyer energy and funding holidays with unsecured debt. What's going on?! The Property Trio
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- Investeren
Got a question for the trio? https://forms.zohopublic.com/propertyplanningaustralia/form/GotaquestionforthePropertyTrio/formperma/zYCQAxzE_24CVlDafP1ozyzwtmB-8m1iCNtCTgDvHXM
The January 2024 data is out, and the capital city league ladder has been changing. But are houses and unit imbalances across capitals skewing the data? Dave explains..
"Data does let us down like that", says Cate and she shares some another example of stock segmentation and purchaser incentives skewing data.
What's happening with the regions? The quarterly data shows that regions have outpaced the capitals. Are we seeing a recovery in some of the regions that suffered during 2023 with the reverse-COVID exodus?
Mike dares to broach the inflation data and asks his co-hosts when they think interest rates will fall. Dave suggests August/September this year, whereas Cate won't be surprised if it's even in 2025. Time will tell!
The national rental index recorded it's strongest monthly rise since April. Could things get worse before they get better? Cate shares her concern about the rate of investor sales and anecdotal evidence from agents' reporting. Cate predicts that rental hikes will eclipse 10% nationally. She also talks about the challenges being tougher for families, as opposed to singles and couples.
We have sales volumes to thank for our 2023 year holding up as it did, but now that sales numbers have increased, will the supply and demand ratio threaten capital growth? It seems not. Buyer appetite is strong and sentiment has ticked up somewhat.
The stock availability, (or lack thereof) has a direct correlation with capital growth, as shown in our charts in the shownotes.
Yet the distressed listings have The Trio intrigued. Is Victoria's data point a green shoot or an anomaly? It's one to watch....
The Westpac Consumer Sentiment data provided some good discussion; what a difference the surprise inflation figures made! But which measure still has Cate worried?
Cate draws attention to the unsecured lending figures and holds concerns about some of the items that people are financing on high-interest credit.
Dave explains how the consumer sentiment index is determined with 50+ sub-groups of people assessed. It's an interesting peek behind the curtain!
Investor activity is up and it has been steadily increasing. Despite the investor-led sales, talk of increased rents and the potential for strong capital growth surges are exciting a cohort of investors.
The three year bonds show that we could see rates drop in the near-term, yet the ten year bonds suggest that rates could sit at similar levels to where they currently are now.
And... time for our gold nuggets...
Cate Bakos's gold nugget: Stop spending on discretionary stuff! And better yet, stop using unsecured debt to do it. We need to bring down inflation.
Dave Johnston's gold nugget: An interesting fact... House values have continued rising at a faster rate relative to units. House and unit median values are at their greatest differential ever.
Mike Mortlock's gold nugget: Don't make it a holiday, make it a toy, and make it second hand.... AND use cash!
Shownotes: https://www.propertytrio.com.au/2024/02/19/ep-245-january-market-update/
Got a question for the trio? https://forms.zohopublic.com/propertyplanningaustralia/form/GotaquestionforthePropertyTrio/formperma/zYCQAxzE_24CVlDafP1ozyzwtmB-8m1iCNtCTgDvHXM
The January 2024 data is out, and the capital city league ladder has been changing. But are houses and unit imbalances across capitals skewing the data? Dave explains..
"Data does let us down like that", says Cate and she shares some another example of stock segmentation and purchaser incentives skewing data.
What's happening with the regions? The quarterly data shows that regions have outpaced the capitals. Are we seeing a recovery in some of the regions that suffered during 2023 with the reverse-COVID exodus?
Mike dares to broach the inflation data and asks his co-hosts when they think interest rates will fall. Dave suggests August/September this year, whereas Cate won't be surprised if it's even in 2025. Time will tell!
The national rental index recorded it's strongest monthly rise since April. Could things get worse before they get better? Cate shares her concern about the rate of investor sales and anecdotal evidence from agents' reporting. Cate predicts that rental hikes will eclipse 10% nationally. She also talks about the challenges being tougher for families, as opposed to singles and couples.
We have sales volumes to thank for our 2023 year holding up as it did, but now that sales numbers have increased, will the supply and demand ratio threaten capital growth? It seems not. Buyer appetite is strong and sentiment has ticked up somewhat.
The stock availability, (or lack thereof) has a direct correlation with capital growth, as shown in our charts in the shownotes.
Yet the distressed listings have The Trio intrigued. Is Victoria's data point a green shoot or an anomaly? It's one to watch....
The Westpac Consumer Sentiment data provided some good discussion; what a difference the surprise inflation figures made! But which measure still has Cate worried?
Cate draws attention to the unsecured lending figures and holds concerns about some of the items that people are financing on high-interest credit.
Dave explains how the consumer sentiment index is determined with 50+ sub-groups of people assessed. It's an interesting peek behind the curtain!
Investor activity is up and it has been steadily increasing. Despite the investor-led sales, talk of increased rents and the potential for strong capital growth surges are exciting a cohort of investors.
The three year bonds show that we could see rates drop in the near-term, yet the ten year bonds suggest that rates could sit at similar levels to where they currently are now.
And... time for our gold nuggets...
Cate Bakos's gold nugget: Stop spending on discretionary stuff! And better yet, stop using unsecured debt to do it. We need to bring down inflation.
Dave Johnston's gold nugget: An interesting fact... House values have continued rising at a faster rate relative to units. House and unit median values are at their greatest differential ever.
Mike Mortlock's gold nugget: Don't make it a holiday, make it a toy, and make it second hand.... AND use cash!
Shownotes: https://www.propertytrio.com.au/2024/02/19/ep-245-january-market-update/
51 min.