Arezki on Africa: In Case you Missed it Arezki Daoud

Since 2011, Libya has been engulfed in a bloody civil war after the death of Muammar Gaddafi. Over the years, it was easy to identify the problem:  too many foreign regional players and global powers meddling in Libya’s affairs, explicitly or implicitly seeking to impose their vision on what Libya ought to be through local proxies. These foreign meddlers had no shortage of proxies within Libya. One of them is the so-called internationally recognized Government of National Unity based in Tripoli in the northwest of the country, headed by Prime Minister Abdulhamid Dbeibeh. And then in Sirte is the rival entity called the Government of National Stability led by Osama Hamada. The latter is supported by the House of Representatives and the Libyan National Army, both essentially representing eastern Libya. Although from an optic perspective he was appointed by the Libyan House of Representatives as commander of the Tobruk-based Libyan National Army, self-proclaimed Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar is the man who calls the shots in eastern Libya and beyond.  He is the man who many foreign parties like to talk to, despite the existence of two competing Prime Ministers and two legislative bodies.

The visit a few days ago of a US government delegation to Niamey, the capital of Niger, did not go down well with the ruling junta there. Clearly as the junta is paving the way for the Russian military to enter Niger and expand their presence in the Sahel, the Americans are starting to lose patience and they may have shown their frustration in this latest interaction with the Junta.

The #Sahel is now clearly the next big event in Africa's geopolitics. After the complete destruction of #Libya, the same foreign powers that paid for the killing of a nation are now shifting their attention to the Sahel, establishing the bases of another sizeable crisis that will take decades to extinguish. 

The Sahel has long been destabilized, at least in recent history. Its post-colonial era has been still dominated by France, despite the Sahelian nations being independent on paper. There have been no improvements for the region, but a fast worsening of the
political, social, environmental, and economic conditions. Podcast below and transcript at: https://north-africa.com/zf5r

2024 should be a record election year for Africa. Twenty countries, accounting for 346 million voters will be called to participate to elections that will mostly be rigged and decided in advance. In this podcast, Arezki Daoud argues that African elections have no democratic content and standards in them.

Different factors and actors have a more direct impact on the political systems in those countries. Among the factors cited by MondAfrique is the predominant role of the military in several countries like Mali, Niger and Guinea, the strength of
traditional tribal structures, the rise of Islamic values favoring
tradition over the law or finally the impact of Vladimir Putin among many African heads of state, factors that naturally clash with Western democratic values.

Visit:
https://north-africa.com/series/africa-2024-elections/ to follow
Africa's 2024 elections.

Has the war in #Ukraine deter #Russia from engagement in #Africa? Certainly not! We know that on the #security front, a growing number of #African states are turning to Russia to supply them with #military equipment and security services, judging by the presence of official and non-government outfits like the #Wagner Group. Things are evolving very rapidly on that front in 2023 and weapons sales to Africa are likely to further increase this year, despite Russia needing all the military hardware it can procure to execute its war on Ukraine. But many analysts have dismissed Russia as an economic partner for Africa. Perhaps that’s not necessarily true.

#Russia’s influence in the #Sahel is about to expand further with more cooperation deals announced by #Niger and Russia during the ongoing visit to #Moscow of Niger’s Prime Minister and other senior officials. Speaking to Russian media, Niger’s Defense Minister Salifou Mody said joint projects are being finalized during the visit, following months of preparation
and negotiation in #Niamey. Mody even hinted on an increase presence of Russian assets as being part of a cooperation plan tying the two countries.