#BalkansDebrief Europe Center

As the May 8th runoff looms, the people of North Macedonia are gearing up for a pivotal parliamentary election that will chart the nation’s course towards European Union integration, alongside the decisive second round of the presidential election. The outcomes are anticipated to signal a shift in the electorate’s mood, reflecting their discontent with the stalled EU accession progress since the 2019 name change and the tensions with Bulgaria over demanded constitutional amendments.
Nonresident Senior Fellow Ilva Tare and political analyst Aleksej Demjanski, editor of the MacedonianMatters newsletter, discuss in this episode of #BalkanasDebrief the significance of these elections for North Macedonia’s European aspirations.
They will explore what Gordana Siljanovska-Davkova’s lead in the presidential election’s first round, securing 40.1% of the votes, reveals about the public’s appetite for change. The conversation will also cover the core messages and strategies of the incumbent SDSM party’s campaign, as well as the resonating themes of the opposition VMRO-DPMNE’s efforts, and how they align with the citizen’s concerns.
Furthermore, the conversation will cover the potential post-election alliances. Could we witness a coalition between VMRO-DPMNE, ZNAM, and VLEN, or will the SDSM and DUI maintain their coalition? How will the political landscape and impact North Macedonia’s EU path?

The Western Balkans remain a security concern, particularly Bosnia and Herzegovina. Recently, France has deployed a battalion as part of the Strategic Reserve Force to assist the EUFOR mission and exercise a level of deterrence in Bosnia and Kosovo, two countries with security issues, where France wants to see progress.
Ilva Tare, a Nonresident Senior Fellow at the Europe Center, discusses regional security issues with Alexandre Vulic, Deputy Director General for Strategic Affairs, International Security, and Arms Control at the French Ministry of Europe and Foreign Affairs. 
Why does France consider the situation in Bosnia as stable yet fragile? What are the main concerns that threaten security in the region? How do cybersecurity, disinformation, and false narratives affect the Western Balkans? And how can France counter Russia’s influence, which is exercised via proxies and nationalist forces?

North Macedonia, a small nation of 2 million, in the Western Balkans, gained international attention in 2019, when it agreed to the seemingly impossible: changing its name in exchange for EU negotiations and NATO membership. While NATO membership was secured, EU accession talks have stalled for years. This is largely due to Bulgaria’s demand for Constitutional changes recognizing a Bulgarian minority.
For North Macedonians, Sofia’s veto was a bitter pill to swallow resulting in public support for the EU dropping sharply, according to surveys. On May 8, the country faces critical elections that will decide its future in relation to the EU.
Nonresident Senior Fellow Ilva Tare sits down will Marko Troshanovski, President of the Institute for Democracy, to discuss the importance of the elections and the key issues debated by the main two opposing political camps.
Can the North Macedonian public regain trust in the EU accession process? What do the surveys suggest about the winner of the political elections? How will a potential victory by the center-right VRMNO-DPMNE opposition affect the country’s foreign policy and its EU path? What role will Albanian parties play in the winning coalition? How should the new government address the problem of corruption?

Kosovo’s recent ban on the dinar, aimed by the Kurti government at curbing illegal cash flow, has sparked tensions with US and the European partners and raised concerns about its impact on the Kosovo Serb community, on the normalization dialogue with Serbia, and Kosovo’s wider relationship with its Western allies.
Nonresident Senior Fellow Ilva Tare discusses the reasons behind this controversial move with two esteemed guests; Arian Zeka, Executive Director of the American Chamber of Commerce in Kosovo and Dragisa Mijacic Executive Director of InTER Institute for Territorial Economic Development. 
Key questions:
Why did the Central Bank of Kosovo announce the euro-only policy on February 1st?
How does this decision impact the daily lives of Kosovo’s Serb community considering pensions and welfare concerns raised by the local NGO’s?
Should Westerns partners have been consulted by the Kosovo government before the ban?
What are the potential implications for US-Kosovo relations after the call to reverse the ban?
Can the Association of the Serb Majority Municipalities address the issue of financing and dinar use, as some suggest?

2024 has already plunged the Western Balkans into a maelstrom of complex developments. Serbia's post-election protests, the precarious Kosovo-Serbia dialogue, and the Kremlin-aligned Dodik's paramilitary parade all raise critical questions about the region's stability.
In this episode of #BalkansDebrief, Ilva Tare, Europe Center's Nonresident Senior Fellow, welcomes Damir Kapidžić, Political Scientist and Associate Professor at the University of Sarajevo, and a Weatherhead Visiting Scholar at Harvard. Together, they dissect the critical crossroads facing the region as U.S. and EU elections loom on the horizon.
Key questions: How will the new U.S. and EU administrations engage with the Balkans? Can the region still harbor hopes for progress towards EU membership? And how can the newly proposed EU Growth Plan translate from promises into tangible advancements, paving the way towards economic integration?

As 2024 dawns, the Balkans cling to a fragile dream: EU membership. But the region and the Union itself are beset by internal tremors. From simmering protests in Serbia to looming threats and economic storms, the region braces for a year of turbulence. Can they emerge resilient from this crucible?
Ilva Tare, Nonresident Senior Fellow, delves into these questions and more with Ivan Krastev, chair of the Center for Liberal Strategies and Permanent Fellow at the Institute for Human Sciences in Vienna. 
Krastev casts a cautious eye on EU reform prospects, outlining potential timelines and highlighting the factors that could determine success or failure. He also analyzes how the November US elections might reshape Washington's engagement with the Balkans, with implications for the region as a whole and, in particular, the fragile Kosovo-Serbia dialogue.
From unexpected twists in the electoral landscape to the ever-shifting sands of regional politics, this year promises to be a rollercoaster. Tune in to hear Krastev’s insights into the key forces at play and why the Balkans and not only, are poised for a turbulent year.