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Electricity Minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa denies that the prevailing reprieve from loadshedding has been "stage managed" to improve the prospects of the governing African National Congress ahead of the May 29 poll, attributing it instead to "orchestrated" engineering efforts undertaken by Eskom over the past 18 months.
Speaking during a briefing that coincided with the fortieth consecutive day of no loadshedding and amid growing societal cynicism about the timing of such supply stability, the Minister also strenuously denied that the improved performance was because Eskom was relying more heavily on the diesel-fuelled open cycle gas (OCGT) turbines that it owned as well as those operated by independent power producers (IPPs).
In April, when no loadshedding was implemented, Ramokgopa said that Eskom had spent R1.15-billion on diesel to produce 126 GWh of electricity from the Eskom and IPP OCGT turbines, representing a marked improvement on the R3.14-billion spent in April 2023 to produce 470 GWh.
Eskom had set aside R22-billion for diesel in 2024/25, having exceeded its R30-billion budget in 2023/24 by R3-billion.
Rather, the Minister attributed the improvement primarily to a recovery in the performance of the six coal stations of Kusile, Matimba, Majuba, Lethabo, Matla and Medupi, whose average energy availability factor (EAF) had recently climbed to above 60%.
"The year-to-date performance is currently at 58.99%, which is a notable improvement from the 53% EAF in the same period last year," he said, indicating that on May 1 the EAF recovered to the 65% target set by the board for 2023/24, but which had not been achieved.
The financial support provided by the R254-billion debt-relief package, he claimed, had enabled Eskom to improve its maintenance performance, by providing the certainty required for planning outages and for buying the long-lead items needed during those outages.
However, Ramokgopa acknowledged that demand was also notably lower period-on-period, supported largely by a surge in rooftop solar installations to an estimated 5 400 MW. This, too, had provided Eskom with additional space to conduct maintenance and to replenish emergency reserves.
He dismissed notions of any "correlation" between the improved performance and the upcoming election, highlighting that the Energy Action Plan was announced in July 2022, and that implementation had started in earnest well before the date of the election was promulgated on February 20.
Ramokgopa said most of the recent disruptions to electricity supply were related to a collapse in municipal distribution infrastructure, which he said was deteriorating at a rate that was faster than initially anticipated.
He said a structural financial solution was required to address the problem, which was leaving residents in certain parts of the country without power for extended periods, in some cases several months.

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The initial direct cost of placing South Africa on an energy transition pathway over the coming five years in line with its decarbonisation targets is calculated at a hefty R1.5-trillion in the Just Energy Transition Investment Plan (JET-IP).
Less visible, however, are the socioeconomic costs associated with failing to pursue the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) goal of reducing carbon dioxide-equivalent (CO2-eq) emissions to the lower end of the NDC range of between 420-million and 350-million CO2-eq tons in 2030.
The lower target is said to be compatible with South Africa's fair contribution to helping to cap the global rise in temperatures to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
To assess these direct and indirect costs, the Presidential Climate Commission (PCC) and Cambridge Econometrics have applied Cambridge Econometrics' E3ME model in a bid to understand the trade impacts of future policy choices and the economic impacts associated with the environmental damage caused by higher temperatures.
The macroeconomic simulation model has been used in this instance to capture the socioeconomic and energy implications for South Africa under conditions where the country and the world adopt decarbonisation paths, premised on:
a business-as-usual outcome calibrated to the stated energy policies of governments, as articulated by the International Energy Agency and where no carbon border adjustment measures are implemented and no just transition funding is available for South Africa; and
a 1.5°C compatible pathway for South Africa and the rest of the world, that assumes energy system decarbonisation plans for South Africa somewhat more ambitious than the prevailing Integrated Resource Plan, as well as carbon taxation, recycling of carbon tax revenues, just transition funding and global carbon border adjustment measures.
These outcomes have been tested against four scenarios, including one where both South Africa and the rest of the world pursue business-as-usual pathways. A second scenario where South Africa pursues a 1.5°C-compatible pathway and the rest of the world remains on a business-as-usual trajectory. Thirdly, where South Africa implements a business-as-usual policy and the rest of the world a 1.5°C-compatible pathway. And fourth, where both South Africa and the rest of the world aim for the 1.5°C-compatible, or net-zero, pathway.
PCC head of climate mitigation Steve Nicholls tells Engineering News that, when climate-related loss and damage is excluded, the model shows South Africa fairing best from a growth and employment perspective under a scenario where it implements net-zero policies and the rest of the world remains on a business-as-usual pathway.
Growth would be 7.5% better by 2030 and 5.2% higher by 2040, while employment would be 0.8% and 1.5% higher for the same periods respectively. However, the associated 3°C global temperature pathway could offset those gains as the country faced more and increasingly costly extreme weather events, for example from floods and droughts.
The most economically and employment damaging scenario for South Africa, however, would be one where it adopted a business-as-usual stance, while the rest of the world implemented 1.5°C-compatible policies.
Under such a scenario, the model shows that South Africa's gross domestic product (GDP) would be 4.2% lower in 2030 and 3.9% lower by 2040 than under a scenario where the rest of the world also remained on a business-as-usual pathway. Likewise employment creation would be far weaker.
The key reason for the decline, Nicholls explains, would be the loss of exports as the rest of the world imposes carbon border adjustment measures on South Africa's higher-carbon products.
The model shows that several domestic sectors, including agriculture, construction, industry, energy, servi

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It's easy to overlook the sheer magnitude of Robertson and Caine's (R&C's) operations in Cape Town. The company's ten boat-building factories and assembly lines are dotted across the city - from Woodstock to Paarden Island to Montagu Gardens, with the latter also housing a substantial warehouse.
Other numbers, however, make it easier to appreciate the scale of the catamaran builder, including the fact that the 33-year-old company employs more than 2 400 people, with one boat rolling off an assembly line somewhere in the city almost every weekday of the year.
For this year, that will be more than 200 catamarans.
R&C is South Africa's largest boat builder for the export market, the largest builder of ocean cruising catamarans in the southern hemisphere and one of the top three in the world, with the French its biggest competition.
A catamaran can either be powered by sail and a small engine, or by more powerful engines alone.
MD Theo Loock is perhaps proudest of its most recent accolade - the 2024 European Powerboat of the Year award for the Leopard 40 PC in the powerboat category.
New Ownership
R&C is Loock's fourth turn at the helm of a company, following 15 years as the boss of JSE-listed energy storage and automotive component manufacturer Metair.
He retired at Metair in 2020, joining R&C in 2021, following a request to do so from asset manager CapitalWorks.
R&C was founded in 1991 by John Robertson and the late Jerry Caine, reaching a new scale of operations when CapitalWorks joined the business as a strategic equity partner.
Loock's brief as the new CEO included overseeing the sale of the business and facilitating Robertson's retirement last year. (John's son, Michael Robertson, remains at the company as design manager.)
Today, R&C is owned by Vox Ventures, a subsidiary of PPF Group, an international diversified investment firm in Europe, with its roots in the Czech Republic.
The new owners have a singular ambition for R&C - that it continues to expand globally while remaining based in Cape Town.
Small Beginnings
Before Robertson and Caine started the company, Robertson built monohulls - including one used by South Africa's champion sailor Hanno Teuteberg to win the Cape to Rio race in 1993.
This gold medal attracted the attention of charter companies in the US, which asked Robertson if he didn't want to consider building catamarans.
Multihulled catamarans offer more stability on the water than monohulls, which means they are better suited to tourist activities.
"The charter market is all about comfort," notes Loock, quipping: "You don't want the children sliding off the deck."
Robertson accepted an order for ten catamarans, ultimately leading to the birth of R&C.
Today, R&C's product line-up includes sailing catamarans (42 ft, 45 ft and 50 ft) and power catamarans (40 ft, 46 ft and 53 ft).
"We have a good balance, with around 60% in sailing and 40% in power," says Loock.
More than 99% of R&C's boats find their way overseas; more specifically, the US East Coast, the Caribbean, Seychelles, Mediterranean, Asia, South Pacific and South America.
Covid-19 provided a noticeable sales boost, as customers with healthier bank balances found that they could isolate from the pandemic on boats in some of the most beautiful parts of the world, says Loock.
R&C's boats are handed over to the customer in the Cape Town harbour, where they undergo their final commissioning checks before either being sailed off by the owner or transported by freighter to their final destination.
If you ever want to see R&C's boats make their trek to water, get up between 02:00 and 04:00 when they are transported to the Cape Town harbour on specialised trucks and under metro police escort.
In essence, every boat sold by R&C is a Leopard-branded catamaran. However, they are only branded as such should

Engineering News editor Terence Creamer talks about the highs and lows of South Africa's real economy in the 30 years of democracy, as well as what could be done to reignite the manufacturing sector in particular.

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TransUnion Africa CEO Lee Naik says a tough economic environment characterised by cost-of-living challenges, high fuel costs and currency depreciations have resulted in a notable decline in vehicle sales and financing in South Africa.
However, while this contraction is expected to persist, manufacturers and dealerships are stepping up their efforts to help consumers enter, or re-enter the auto market, he notes.
TransUnion this week released its Vehicle Pricing Index (VPI) for the fourth quarter of 2023.
Actions that vehicle manufacturers and dealerships are taking to egg on sales numbers include discount structures, incentives, trade assistance mechanisms, interest rate reductions on loans, and a focus on monthly payments rather than gross prices.
"These efforts show innovation in an otherwise stagnant sector," says Naik.
According to the newest VPI, a significant market trend is the increase in the average loan amount for financed vehicles.
TransUnion data shows that, in the last quarter of 2023, the average loan value increased to R396 000, up from R386 000 in the same period in 2022.
This 2.5% average loan value growth comes off the back of a consumer price index of 5.1% in December, and a new-vehicle price increase of 6.3% (fourth quarter, 2023 compared with the fourth quarter, 2022).
TransUnion also reports that there has been an overall reduction in new accounts opened over the last two years, further confirming a decline in purchasing power and volume.
"The net effect of these economic markers is that lower net income consumers are being priced out of the market - they either do not qualify for vehicle loans or are unwilling to add a new debt burden to their monthly budgets."
This is where the industry is evolving to enable economic participation, says Naik.
"Consumers are benefitting from the introduction of new subscription-based and vehicle-on-demand models and services.
"Renting, station-based car sharing, free-floating car sharing, micro-mobility services, ridesharing and ride-hailing options are increasingly being brought to market to make transport more affordable for consumers, with the end-result promoting financial inclusion, furthering economic empowerment and stimulating economic growth."
The shift in the ratio of used-to-new vehicles being financed - from 1.98 in the fourth quarter of 2022 to 1.2 in the fourth quarter last year - also signifies a change in consumer behaviour, driven by factors such as improved new-vehicle stock availability, an interest rate that is perceived as being stable, and innovation at dealership level, notes Naik.
These factors are leading to consumers increasingly opting for new, rather than used vehicles.
"Overall, the macroeconomic climate remains incredibly challenging for consumers and continues to affect buying power and spending habits," says Naik.
"While the data sets in this index end in December 2024, the market indicators continue to tell a difficult story for the South African consumer - first quarter Naamsa sales figures remain depressed, and the cost of owning, running and maintaining a vehicle continue to increase, evidenced by another petrol price increase on May 1.
"The South African vehicle industry's ability to adapt and innovate, particularly in embracing new mobility trends, will be essential for sustainable growth," states Naik.

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Johannesburg's City Power is seeking manufacturing and venture capital partners to further develop and pilot a rugged 'energy box' concept in one of the city's 312 informal settlements as a possible greener and safer alternative to the illegal connections that currently predominate.
Chief engineer for renewable energy Paul Vermeulen says the idea is to locate 3 kWh energy storage boxes - linked to lighting, charging and cooking appliances - within individual dwellings and link these to a centralised solar photovoltaic generator securely located on a nearby warehouse or factory rooftop.
He notes that hundreds of secure rooftops capable of hosting 500 kVA-plus solar systems are already connected to the conventional grid in Johannesburg.
The storage systems, which would probably comprise lithium-ion battery technology, would be charged using a constant supply of 130 W of nonlethal direct-current (DC) electricity through a light wiring network, containing low volumes of copper to make it less prone to theft.
This informal grid, which would be relocatable should the area be formalised, would be supplied from conventional alternating-current (AC) grids in adjacent reticulated areas through an AC-to-DC converter and distribution control system that manages the charging of each energy box.
The re-usable nature of the solution would also ensure compliance with the Municipal Finance Management Act, which disallows the city from installing fixed electricity reticulation in "non-permanent" areas.
Lighting and mobile devices would be connected to the energy box using the USB-C standard and each box would be equipped with a single induction-based hotplate for boiling water and cooking. Vermeulen acknowledges that the induction stoves would require cookware containing ferrous materials, but says these are becoming more common and affordable.
The appliance control system will use powerline carrier technology to communicate to the DC distribution and charging control system, drawing power from the conventional AC grid. Communications could also be used for tamper detection and energy balancing, as well as community fire and security alarms.
Vermeulen believes the capital expenditure could be funded through the Integrated National Electrification Programme allocation and registered dwellings would also benefit from the free basic energy allocation, which many eligible households are currently not receiving. Household consumption above that 50-kWh monthly threshold would be charged at a nominal subsidised tariff.
"The system can only dispense a fixed amount of energy to each household daily, thereby avoiding the problem of uncontrolled and excessive nontechnical losses common to conventional AC grid service connections," Vermeulen notes, indicating that up to 72 kWh can easily be lost daily to an illegally bypassed 3 kVA service connection.
In addition, he highlights that the electrocution risks associated with illegal connections are high, with a number of deaths reported every year.
"There is a need for a safe energy solution that can out-compete these illegal operators and, having surveyed residents within these areas, we have found a willingness to pilot the concept both for safety reasons and to reduce reliance on mafia-style illegal connectors."
From a system perspective the constant controlled load would not increase the magnitude of the evening peak, avoiding the problem of uncontrolled electricity theft, while insulating the community from future Eskom price increases.
Vermeulen says the rooftop solar system could be sized to offset the full cost of the energy provided, with the levelised cost of rooftop solar currently estimated at R1.30/kWh against the average cost of Eskom power of R1.75/kWh, which is expected to rise in future.
"Eskom network and demand charges are also like