Join Michael Cembalest as he explores a wide variety of investment topics, including the economy, policy and markets.
The Federal debt and how the Visigoths may try to break the system if no one fixes it
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The End of the Affair
The affair with the market catalysts of the last decade is over now, and a new era of investing begins
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Holiday Eye on the Market: Non-Fungible Trainwreck
Holiday Eye on the Market: the YUCs, the MUCs, FTX, the Gensler Rule and the Summers Rule
A CH₄, HR4346 and mRNA-1273 Thanksgiving
In the October Eye on the Market I wrote about how in 6 of 7 post-war recessions, equity markets preceded the decline in profits, employment and GDP by several months at least. I also mentioned that the best indicator to follow was the ISM survey, which tends to coincide with the equity market bottom +/- 2 months. So, in the interest of thinking about when equities could bottom, the first chart below projects the ISM survey by looking at new orders and inventories. Using this crude approach, the ISM would bottom in the mid-40’s in December. If so, 3570 on the S&P 500 Index reached in mid-October could actually mark the low for the cycle; such a scenario should not be discounted entirely, and would be consistent with market history.
Reruns: how equity declines precede the fall in earnings, growth and employment during recessions; new US semiconductor export policies on China and the clash of empires; and other press article extolling the renewable energy virtues of a country with little relevance for anyone else
Arrested Development: the pressure on profit margins, the tightest labor markets in decades and whether “second chance” policies for those with criminal arrest records can expand the labor force