The Writ Podcast Éric Grenier

With the high-stakes byelection in Toronto–St. Paul’s on Monday, I invited David Coletto, chair and CEO of Abacus Data, to come back on the podcast to do another polling deep-dive — this time on on where things stand in Toronto and beyond.
Armed with reams of polling data, we take a look at Battleground Toronto, as well as Justin Trudeau’s standing among various demographic groups across the country as speculation about the future of his leadership continues. We also compare where the polls stand, 16 months out from the next election, to where polls stood at this point in the calendar before the 2015, 2019 and 2021 campaigns.
THE NUMBERS: On this week’s episode of The Numbers podcast, available for Patreon members here, we discuss the set of polls that suggest (as expected) that the Liberals are not in the midst of a comeback — quite the opposite. We also make our over/under bets on Monday's Toronto–St. Paul's byelection. Will the Conservatives pull off an upset? Then, we chat about the results of the Tuxedo byelection in Manitoba and a new poll out of British Columbia. We answer questions from the mailbag (could we be replaced by AI?) and Philippe has a tough quiz for me.
In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.


This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

On this week's episode of The Numbers, we discuss a new poll that puts the gap between the Conservatives and the Liberals at the smallest its been in months. We also chat about some new polls out of Atlantic Canada, Ontario and Quebec, and an upcoming byelection option for Naheed Nenshi in Alberta. We answer a question on the Toronto–St. Paul's byelection and Philippe has more trivia for me in the Quiz.
To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, you can become a member of our Patreon site here.
A regular episode of The Writ Podcast will be back in this feed next week!
As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.
You can also find The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres wherever you get your podcasts!
Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffres
Spotify: The Numbers / Les chiffres
LES CHIFFRES: Le Parti québécois a gagné l'année parlementaire à Québec Cette semaine au balado Les chiffres, Éric et Philippe discutent des deux récents sondages québécois des maisons Léger et Pallas Data. Le PQ mène toujours, la CAQ stagne, les libéraux demeurent au plancher et QS traverse sa crise sans trop de dommages. Il est aussi question d'un sondage de la firme Segma Recherche pour la ville de Gatineau. Vous pouvez regarder ce balado sur YouTube.


This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

The last two weeks in B.C. politics have been frenetic ones. First, B.C. United leader Kevin Falcon revealed that the B.C. Conservatives had pulled out of negotiations meant to prevent a vote-split that could re-elect David Eby’s NDP government. Then, the Conservatives announced that one BCU MLA, and then a second, were crossing the floor to join John Rustad’s party.
It’s a lot of high drama with little more than four months to go before British Columbia’s provincial election in October, so this week I’m joined by Richard Zussman, Global News legislative reporter in Victoria, to break it all down.
THE NUMBERS: On this week’s episode of The Numbers podcast, available for Patreon members here, we talk about the news out of Ottawa on the reduction in the Bank of Canada's interest rate, as well as a new report on foreign interference. Will anything move the polls? Plus, with two floor-crossings in British Columbia, is B.C. United finished? We also chat about new provincial polls out of Quebec and Alberta, and answer questions from the mailbag. To close, Philippe tests me with a competition-level Quiz.
In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.


This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

This week, we break down the latest federal polls and discuss whether or not they show a tightening of the race. We then delve into the Baie Verte-Green Bay byelection in Newfoundland and Labrador and the speculation of a snap election call in Ontario, and how those might be tied to Justin Trudeau's leadership. Plus, we have new numbers out of B.C. and a question from the mailbag on the federal byelections. Finally, Philippe has a Quiz on electoral landslides.
To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, you can become a member of our Patreon site here.
A regular episode of The Writ Podcast will be back in this feed next week!
As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.
You can also find The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres wherever you get your podcasts!
Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffres
Spotify: The Numbers / Les chiffres
LES CHIFFRES: Des congrès, des congrès partout Cette semaine au balado Les chiffres, Philippe et Éric discutent d'une fin de semaine particulièrement chargée en politique québécoise, alors que trois des quatre partis représentés à l'Assemblée nationale se réunissaient pour discuter de leur avenir prochain. Québec solidaire tentait d'éviter l'implosion à Jonquière, le PLQ célébrait son passé et se préparait pour sa course à la chefferie à Bromont et la CAQ, réunie à Saint-Hyacinthe, tentait d'éviter de parler aux médias. Sur la scène fédérale, de nouveaux chiffres de Léger suggèrent une course à trois au Québec entre le Bloc, les libéraux et les conservateurs, mais est-ce réellement la tendance actuelle? Nous décortiquons les plus récentes données. Vous pouvez regarder ce balado sur YouTube.


This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

The polls suggest that Premier Wab Kinew is in the midst of a honeymoon after the Manitoba NDP’s victory last year, but that honeymoon will be put to the test on June 18 when voters go to the polls in the riding of Tuxedo, the seat of former premier Heather Stefanson and a riding that nearly joined most of the rest of the city in turning orange in October’s provincial election.
But Tuxedo won’t be the only Winnipeg battleground in 2024, as a federal byelection will have to be held in Elmwood–Transcona in the next few months. The federal NDP, not nearly as buoyant in the polls as their provincial cousins, could have a fight on its hands to hold off the Conservatives in this seat.
To discuss the first months of Wab Kinew’s government and the upcoming electoral contests taking place in Winnipeg, as well as how the city is shaping up ahead of the 2025 federal election, I’m joined by Ian Froese, the CBC’s provincial affairs reporter in Manitoba.
THE NUMBERS: On this week’s episode of The Numbers podcast, available for Patreon members here, we chat about the upcoming byelection in Toronto–St. Paul's and what's at stake for the Liberals in what has traditionally been a safe seat. We also discuss the results in the Pictou West byelection in Nova Scotia, the upcoming Tuxedo byelection in Manitoba and new polls out of Ontario, Alberta and B.C.
In addition to listening to this episode of The Writ Podcast in your inbox, at TheWrit.ca or on podcast apps like Apple Podcasts, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.


This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe

This week, we discuss another poll that shows a 20-point lead for the Conservatives, as well as some new numbers on how various religious communities are voting. We then delve into some provincial polling out of British Columbia and Quebec, and check-in on the Alberta NDP leadership race. In the mailbag, we chat about merger talks in B.C. and we close with a birthday-themed Quiz.
To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, you can become a member of our Patreon site here.
A regular episode of The Writ Podcast will be back in this feed next week!
As always, in addition to listening to the episode in your inbox or at TheWrit.ca, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.
You can also find The Numbers and our French-language podcast Les chiffres wherever you get your podcasts!
Apple Podcasts: The Numbers / Les chiffres
Spotify: The Numbers / Les chiffres
LES CHIFFRES: Le Parti québécois a-t-il plafonné ? Cette semaine au balado, Éric et Philippe discutent du plus récent sondage québécois de la maison Léger. Il semblerait que le PQ ait atteint un certain plafond, que les appuis de la CAQ se soient stabilisés et que Québec solidaire ait perdu quelques plumes. Que nous racontent ces chiffres sur le portrait actuel de la politique au Québec? Et est-ce que la glissade de QS dans les sondages pourrait influencer le dénouement du congrès de Québec solidaire à la fin du mois ? Vous pouvez regarder ce balado sur YouTube.


This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thewrit.ca/subscribe