170 episodes

Brought to you by CoreLogic and produced by Agents TV. Each week co-hosts Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson will bring you all the latest news, stats and insight to keep you up to date with everything to do with the NZ residential property market. Including sales volumes, house price indices, buyer activity, interest rates, loan-to-value ratio restrictions and all of the macro economic factors that influence our largest asset class. Contact us on twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL

The NZ Property Market Podcast CoreLogic NZ

    • Business
    • 4.7 • 57 Ratings

Brought to you by CoreLogic and produced by Agents TV. Each week co-hosts Nick Goodall and Kelvin Davidson will bring you all the latest news, stats and insight to keep you up to date with everything to do with the NZ residential property market. Including sales volumes, house price indices, buyer activity, interest rates, loan-to-value ratio restrictions and all of the macro economic factors that influence our largest asset class. Contact us on twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL

    4. Heaps of data and a chat with Tom Coad about key banking issues

    4. Heaps of data and a chat with Tom Coad about key banking issues

    With Nick away on holiday in and around Queenstown this week, Kelvin takes the reins and is joined by a special guest, Tom Coad, who is CoreLogic’s Head of Banking and Finance Platforms for NZ and Australia.
    We kick off the episode with a brief intro for Tom, and then Kelvin kicks into the data, which is in abundance this week – inflation may have peaked (but is still high), which will trigger another OCR increase on 22nd February. Whether it’s 0.75% or ‘only’ 0.5% will depend a lot on what happens with the official labour market figures this Wednesday.

    There have been some other concerning indicators lately too – a subdued NZAC for December, weak business confidence, and signs in the latest Centrix data that more households are beginning to struggle with the cost of living and higher mortgage rates.
    Looking ahead, it’s CoreLogic House Price Index data this week, alongside mortgage lending, foreign buyers, unemployment, dwelling consents, and consumer confidence.
    After all that, the discussion turns to bigger picture banking themes, where Tom highlights a couple of key issues – digitisation/lending speed and the role of brokers, both in NZ and across the ditch. 
    Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, Twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

    • 35 min
    3. This week’s CPI more important for property than change of PM

    3. This week’s CPI more important for property than change of PM

    What else could start off this week’s discussion than the change of Prime Minister? Ultimately though, from a property perspective, the guys reckon that it’s ‘business as usual’ for now – what really matters is what will happen to property policy after the Election.

    In fact, the biggest item this week is actually Wednesday’s CPI for Q4. If inflation rose above 7.5% (the Reserve Bank’s expectation), we could see some reaction in higher mortgage rates. But a sub-7% result could tip the tone of discussion towards an OCR increase on 22nd February of less than 0.75%, taking some heat out of mortgage rates. A big day beckons.
    Meanwhile, the REINZ data released last week remained very sluggish, with sales low and the house price index falling again. Queenstown’s 5.2% fall in values in December probably isn’t a genuine indication of broader trends in that market, but it also reinforces that nowhere is totally immune to the current housing pressures.
    Rents held steady in December, confirming that tenants are currently in the ascendency, but the sharp and surprisingly strong turnaround lately in net migration may be starting to give some landlords hope for better property demand and cashflow in 2023.
    Nick and Kelvin also cover off this week’s NZAC (weak again?), ANZ business confidence (also subdued?), as well as the so-called Healthy Homes alliance, and some recent negative equity stats for Wellington.
    Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, Twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

    • 44 min
    Looser LVRs won't bolster house prices this year

    Looser LVRs won't bolster house prices this year

    Apologies for the short audio cut-out at about 16 minutes. Please plough through it.
    After a busy start to 2023 last week in terms of writing and media appearances, we’re back for the second podcast of the year, and there’s plenty to cover – most notably the guys cover off Kelvin’s ‘opinion piece’ setting out why the loan to value ratio rules won’t be loosened this year. This wasn’t triggered by any ‘whispers’ that we’ve heard; just a good opportunity to put all our random musings into one place.
    The latest Cordell Construction Cost Index is also discussed, showing that the costs to build a new house rose at a record pace in 2022, but also that some respite could be on the way this year.
    Good news for first home buyers too – their % share of property purchases is hovering at record highs, with reduced competition from other buyers, and of course lower house prices, all working in their favour. To be fair, the number of deals has fallen. But a high market share is still a good result.
    The labour market also remains healthy, with filled jobs rising again in November. And this week we’re watching out for December’s REINZ figures (Wednesday), December’s Stats NZ rent data (Thursday), and November’s migration result (Friday).
    Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, Twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

    • 25 min
    Why the recent moderation in value falls is a false dawn

    Why the recent moderation in value falls is a false dawn

    The CoreLogic House Price Index (HPI) for December provides the perfect platform to close out 2022 as Nick and Kelvin discuss why the moderation in value falls is likely a false dawn. 
    Kelvin also wraps up a few other data releases you may have missed over the holidays weeks, most notably and concerning, the weak confidence results.
    Plus beware of some of the headlines you may have read, there's a warning for reading too much into asking price or sales price measures and are Auckland buyers really that active outside of the Super City?
    Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, Twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

    • 35 min
    2022: a reminder that house prices can go down too

    2022: a reminder that house prices can go down too

    For the final episode of the year, where else could we start than with the just-completed FIFA World Cup Final. An early start for Nick and some disappointment for the French friends he was watching it with! But what a game it was.
    The guys then review recent data and preview what’s coming up for the final week of the year, including the ANZ business and consumer confidence surveys. The activity measures in these surveys could be pretty weak, but is there a chance that inflation expectations might soon be moderating?
    The discussion then switches to an overall review of 2022 and a look ahead to 2023. The past 12 months have certainly been a timely reminder that house prices can go down (sharply) as well as up, and that mortgage rates play a key role. The next year will probably contain more housing weakness, but some positivity may start to emerge later in 2023.
    Anybody wanting a more in-depth/alternative discussion of the 12 months ahead should check out Nick’s regular monthly video and the recording of a webinar the guys recently delivered to a Government audience.
    All the best for 2023 to all of our listeners.
    Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, Twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

    • 40 min
    Migration strength, construction weakness

    Migration strength, construction weakness

    With no official macro economic data releases in the last week Nick and Kelvin take a look around for any other info and engagements worth reviewing. Migration data was hot off the press but otherwise there’s media coverage regarding mortgagee sales, reduced sales turnover at the suburb level and  Kelvins deeper look at recent investor activity.  
    Centrix also released their latest credit indicator report, illustrating a lift in loan arrears, while BusinessDesk analysed records around liquidations which show up  the constructor sector's lingering vulnerability.  
    Keep a look out for a number of different releases from CoreLogic this week, including the Best of the Best report, the final monthly video of the year and the last Market Update webinar for Government employees (being tag teamed by both Nick and Kelvin).
    Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, Twitter @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email nick.goodall@corelogic.co.nz or kelvin.davidson@corelogic.co.nz

    • 29 min

Customer Reviews

4.7 out of 5
57 Ratings

57 Ratings

Kiwistudent ,

A Balanced Data-Back Take on NZ’s Housing Market

Nick and Kelvin do a great job. This podcast has little fluff. I don’t own property but perhaps one day I will. For now, I just enjoy a top quality informative podcast and the presentation. Good to get an idea of New Zealand’s economy too as the housing market mirrors/anticipates other local and global financial movements.

TB and Family ,

Nicky

Can’t seem to find the mentioned Australian property podcast you discussed? Please share! Thanks

Pankaj (NZ) ,

Need better Mics

Hi
I am long time listener, Love the Content but i always left the sound quality is bit poor because of quiet a bit of echo and guys come on, you speaking too fast when you ask questions. Mellow it down for easy comfortable listening.
Small tweeks needed to be happen seriously. As it hurts when we listens with good quality headphones on this side.

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