Facts vs Feelings with Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese

Carson Investment Research
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This podcast takes a deep dive into the market-moving events to cut through the noise and help you identify what really matters. Facts vs Feelings is hosted by Chief Market Strategist, Ryan Detrick and VP, Global Macro Strategist, Sonu Varghese, and is a product of the Carson Investment Research Team.The information included herein is for informational purposes and is intended for use by advisors only, and should not be copied, reproduced, or re-distributed without the consent of CWM, LLC. Carson Partners offers investment advisory services through CWM, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. Carson Coaching and CWM, LLC are separate but affiliated companies and wholly-owned subsidiaries of Carson Group Holdings, LLC. Carson Coaching does not provide advisory services. 

  1. قبل ٣ ساعات

    Winter Is Here (Ep. 161)

    In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, discuss how markets are responding to the government’s impending reopening, improving earnings, and shifting political dynamics. They unpack why consumer sentiment remains low despite strong market and economic data, explore the reality behind so-called “K-shaped” growth, and explain why they still see powerful tailwinds for investors heading into 2026. Key Takeaways Government Reopening & Market Optimism: Ryan and Sonu expect the government to fully reopen within a week, though they highlight that split power in Congress has often aligned with positive stock performance.Political Shifts & Gridlock Effect: Off-year elections showed strong results for Democrats, setting up a potential split Congress—an outcome that markets have rewarded in past cycles due to reduced legislative volatility.Consumer Sentiment vs. Market Reality: Confidence levels remain near historic lows even as inflation cools and the job market holds steady. The hosts argue that perception, not data, is fueling pessimism.Earnings Strength & Global Tailwinds: S&P 500 earnings growth surged from 7.9% to 13%, with companies generating more than half their revenue abroad leading the way—evidence that global demand continues to support U.S. markets.Debunking the “K-Shaped Economy” Narrative: Sonu breaks down why claims of widening inequality are overstated, emphasizing that spending patterns and income distribution remain consistent with long-term trends.Labor Market Stability: Despite attention-grabbing layoff headlines, jobless claims and hiring plans show a resilient labor market, reinforcing the broader theme of economic strength beneath the noise.Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick • X: @ryandetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese • X: @sonusvarghese  Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com Hashtags #FactsVsFeelings #MarketOutlook #InvestingInsights #EconomicUpdate #StockMarket #FinancialPlanning #CarsonGroup

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  2. ٥ نوفمبر

    Don’t Sleep on Momentum (Ep. 160)

    In the latest episode of Facts vs. Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, discuss the powerful role of momentum in today’s markets and what investors should expect heading into year-end. They examine how the S&P 500’s impressive rally fits into historical context, why tech leadership remains dominant, and how market breadth and global participation are evolving. The conversation also explores the impact of Federal Reserve policy shifts, cooling trade tensions, and the surprising resilience of the U.S. economy. Key Takeaways Historic Market Strength: The S&P 500 has gained nearly 23% over the past six months, placing this move in the top 4% of all six-month returns. History shows that strong momentum often leads to continued upside in the following year.Tech-Driven Leadership: The recent rally has been powered largely by technology. The Magnificent Seven continue to dominate, with the S&P 500 Technology Index up 44% over six months. Global Momentum: It’s not just the U.S.—developed and emerging markets are rallying too. South Korea, Taiwan, and China are leading EM gains, while countries like South Africa, Mexico, and Japan also show strong performance.Economic Resilience: Despite talk of a “K-shaped” economy, U.S. GDP growth remains near 2%. Earnings are rising across sectors, with 80% of companies beating on both revenue and profits.Trade Tensions Easing: The U.S.–China trade war appears to be cooling, with both sides de-escalating tariffs and trade restrictions. China is resuming soybean purchases and suspending certain export controls, while the U.S. has paused new restrictions—reducing a major geopolitical headwind.Fed’s Delicate Balance: The Federal Reserve cut rates again, bringing total cuts to 150 basis points since the cycle’s peak. While inflation remains a concern for some members, Powell’s comments suggested a dovish tone, emphasizing that inflation pressures are manageable and economic momentum remains intact.Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick • X: @ryandetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese • X: @sonusvarghese   Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com   Hashtags #FactsVsFeelings #MarketMomentum #RyanDetrick #SonuVarghese #CarsonGroup #InvestingInsights #StockMarket #EconomicOutlook #FederalReserve #GlobalMarkets

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  3. A Facts vs Feelings Special: Talking Markets With Joe Fahmy and Warren Pies

    ٣ نوفمبر

    A Facts vs Feelings Special: Talking Markets With Joe Fahmy and Warren Pies

    In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, hosted a special Halloween livestream featuring Joe Fahmy, Managing Director at Zor Capital, and Warren Pies, Co-Founder and Strategist at 3Fourteen Research. Together they explore what’s driving markets at the end of 2025—from AI-led growth and investor sentiment to fiscal spending, oil, and the broader economic outlook. The result is an entertaining and insightful look at how two veteran strategists interpret this bull market and what it could mean heading into 2026 and beyond. Key Takeaways Joe Fahmy Segment: Broad-Based Bull Market: Joe sees strength well beyond the “Magnificent 7,” with AI, quantum computing, and clean energy creating multiple growth engines.Adaptability Over Bias: He stresses that successful investors aren’t perma-bulls or perma-bears. They adapt as the data changes.Technical Discipline: Joe relies on the 50-day moving average to define market health. Above it, stay constructive; below it, get defensive.Cautious Sentiment: He notes that many investors remain nervous, which helps sustain the market’s “wall of worry” and supports further upside.AI as the Next Revolution: He predicts the current bull market could extend into 2027 as AI transforms productivity similar to past technological breakthroughs.Warren Pies Segment: Debasement: Warren frames today’s cycle as a shift from deflation fears to worries about fiscal expansion, debt, and currency dilution.Equities as Inflation Hedges: He highlights that S&P 500 earnings have outpaced inflation nearly every year since 2009, proving stocks’ resilience.Energy Outlook: Warren maintains a bearish view on oil, citing signs of oversupply and weakening global demand.Equity and Yield Outlook: He expects modest but positive stock gains through 2026 as yields drift lower and fiscal support remains steady.Economic View: Warren describes the U.S. economy as being in a “muddle-through slowdown,” with government spending and the wealth effect offsetting recession risks.Joe and Warren are not affiliated with CWM, LLC. Opinions expressed by these individuals may not be representative of CWM, LLC. Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick • X: @ryandetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese • X: @sonusvarghese Connect with Joe Fahmy: • X: @jfahmy Connect with Warren Pies: • LinkedIn: Warren Pies • X: @WarrenPies   Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com   Hashtags #FactsVsFeelings #CarsonGroup #Markets #Investing #BullMarket #AI #Economy #Inflation #StockMarket #MarketOutlook

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  4. ٢٩ أكتوبر

    Here Comes the Year-End Rally (Ep. 159)

    In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, discuss why a strong year-end rally may already be underway. They explore the drivers behind market momentum, earnings strength, inflation trends, and the Fed’s next moves, while adding insight, a bit of humor, and practical perspective for investors heading into the final stretch of 2025. Key Takeaways: ·       Seasonality on Investors’ Side: November and December have historically been strong months for equities, especially when the S&P 500 is up 15% heading into year-end. ·       Resilient Earnings: Nearly 87% of S&P 500 companies have beaten earnings expectations, one of the strongest showings in years. ·       Sentiment Still Skeptical: Surveys continue to show more bears than bulls, but confidence is building as investors look toward a possible year-end rally. ·       Inflation Cooling but Sticky: Core CPI rose just 0.23% in September (2.8% annualized), showing progress even as service-sector prices remain firm. ·       The Fed Turns Dovish: Rate cuts are expected to continue into 2026, potentially bringing policy below 3%—a setup that has historically supported markets. ·       Easing Trade Tensions: U.S.–China progress on tariffs and rare earths adds another macro tailwind to investor confidence. ·       Market Breadth: Equal-weight indexes across the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq recently hit all-time highs, showing strength beyond mega-cap tech. DON’T MISS our special Halloween livestream on YouTube starting at 10:30amCT this Friday, October 31, 2025! Click here for more info: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0alr4-vDLK8  Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick • X: @ryandetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese • X: @sonusvarghese Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com   Hashtags: #FactsVsFeelings #CarsonGroup #MarketRally #InvestingInsights #StockMarket #Inflation #FederalReserve #EarningsSeason #RyanDetrick #SonuVarghese #WealthManagement

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  5. ٢٢ أكتوبر

    No Cockroaches in a Bull Market (Ep. 158)

    Summary: In the latest episode of Facts vs. Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, welcome Kate Hall, VP of Alternative Due Diligence at Carson Group. They dive into the “cockroaches in a bull market” conversation—what it means for credit markets, how private credit has evolved, and why due diligence and diversification are key in today’s environment. The trio also discusses gold’s surge, strong bank earnings, and why market signals still favor a solid finish to the year. Key Takeaways: Credit Spreads – Markets remain steady with limited signs of broad stress.Private Credit Boom – The space has tripled since 2015, creating new risk dynamics.Diversification – Broad exposure cushions isolated defaults or fraud risks.Gold Momentum – Rising prices reflect sticky inflation and rate-cut expectations.Market Sentiment – A cooling VIX and broad participation support a strong Q4 outlook.Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick • X: @ryandetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese • X: @sonusvarghese Connect with Kate Hall: • LinkedIn: Kate Hall Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com Hashtags: #FactsVsFeelings #CarsonGroup #RyanDetrick #SonuVarghese #KateHall #PrivateCredit #Investing #Markets #BullMarket #Gold #MarketInsights #FinancialAdvisors #EconomicOutlook #Diversification

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  6. ١٥ أكتوبر

    Oops…the China Trade War Is Back (Ep. 157)

    Summary: In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, dive into the renewed tensions between the U.S. and China—what they’re calling “Trade War 3.0.” They break down the latest round of tariffs, China’s restrictions on rare earth exports, and what this means for markets, global trade, and investors. The conversation also touches on October’s trademark market volatility, the three-year anniversary of the current bull market, and Carson Group’s exciting milestone of surpassing $50 billion in assets under management. To wrap up, Ryan and Sonu discuss how AI investments are shaping economic growth and why diversification remains key as the market rides this wave of innovation. Key Takeaways: Trade War 3.0: The China trade war is back, with new tariffs and export restrictions creating fresh market uncertainty.Not a Shock: October remains the most volatile month for markets—current swings are historically typical.The Bull’s Birthday: The three-year bull market continues to show resilience and momentum heading into year four.Massive Impact: AI-related investment is a key driver of GDP growth, fueling spending, innovation, and market optimism.Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick • X: @RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese • X: @SonuVarghese Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you — factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com #FactsVsFeelings #CarsonGroup #Investing #MarketOutlook #ChinaTradeWar #Tariffs #GlobalMarkets #EconomicTrends #RareEarths #AIMarkets #NVIDIA #OpenAI #StockMarket #FinancialPlanning #MarketInsights

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  7. ٨ أكتوبر

    Shutdown…But Not Out (Ep. 156)

    In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, tackle the market implications of the ongoing government shutdown, the surge in gold prices, and what investors should expect from the Fed. They also dig into the booming AI investment cycle, shifting momentum across market caps, and why the labor market remains resilient even as hiring slows. Key Takeaways Gold Shines Bright:  Gold has remained on the rise, nearing $4,000 an ounce as central banks buy aggressively and inflation concerns persist.Shutdown, Not Slowdown:  Despite Washington gridlock, the S&P 500 keeps hitting record highs. Historically, markets shrug off shutdowns and focus on Fed policy instead.Rate Cuts Coming:  Fed futures signal multiple cuts starting this fall. Weak hiring but low layoffs point to a cooling, not collapsing, economy.AI Spending Surge:  OpenAI, NVIDIA, AMD, and others are driving a wave of capital investment, with AI-related spending now accounting for roughly 6% of U.S. GDP.Market Momentum Builds:  Strong seasonality, easing rates, and improving earnings expectations set the stage for a solid Q4, even as mid-caps lag under tariff pressure.Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick • X: @RyanDetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese • X: @SonuVarghese Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you — factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com #FactsVsFeelings #CarsonGroup #Gold #FederalReserve #AI #GovernmentShutdown #Investing #StockMarket #WealthManagement #EconomicOutlook #MarketInsights

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  8. ١ أكتوبر

    Talking Gold, Crypto, and More With Jan van Eck (Ep. 155)

    In this special episode of Facts vs. Feelings, recorded live at Excell 2025 in Phoenix, hosts Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, sit down with Jan van Eck, CEO of VanEck, to discuss gold, crypto, ETFs, and the future of investing. From the history of the first U.S. gold fund to today’s innovations in blockchain, stablecoins, and nuclear energy, Jan shares unique insights into how markets are evolving. Key Takeaways Gold & Bitcoin: Gold remains a global safe haven, while Bitcoin is increasingly seen as “digital gold,” according to Jan.Stablecoins: Potentially revolutionary for payments, creating new competition between banks and tech companies.Macro Trends: The rise of India could reshape global markets, while China’s equity returns remain lackluster.Energy & AI: Nuclear energy is regaining bipartisan support as demand for power surges, particularly from AI growth.Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick • X: @ryandetrick Connect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese • X: @sonusvarghese Connect with Jan van Eck: • LinkedIn: Jan van Eck • X: @JanvanEck3   Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com   Disclosure: Jan van Eck is not affiliated with CWM, LLC. Opinions expressed by our guests may not be representative of CWM, LLC. #FactsVsFeelings #CarsonGroup #Gold #Bitcoin #Crypto #ETFs #Stablecoins #Investing #WealthManagement #MarketInsights

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This podcast takes a deep dive into the market-moving events to cut through the noise and help you identify what really matters. Facts vs Feelings is hosted by Chief Market Strategist, Ryan Detrick and VP, Global Macro Strategist, Sonu Varghese, and is a product of the Carson Investment Research Team.The information included herein is for informational purposes and is intended for use by advisors only, and should not be copied, reproduced, or re-distributed without the consent of CWM, LLC. Carson Partners offers investment advisory services through CWM, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. Carson Coaching and CWM, LLC are separate but affiliated companies and wholly-owned subsidiaries of Carson Group Holdings, LLC. Carson Coaching does not provide advisory services. 

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