24 avsnitt

Welcome to the L2 Capital Podcast, focuses on potential opportunities in the market, and brings to you industry leaders and intelligent conversation about their respective areas of expertise.

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    • Investering

Welcome to the L2 Capital Podcast, focuses on potential opportunities in the market, and brings to you industry leaders and intelligent conversation about their respective areas of expertise.

    Podcast #24: Mark Gordon - Oil Fund

    Podcast #24: Mark Gordon - Oil Fund

    In today's episode, Marcelo López spoke with Mark Gordon, CIO of the Ascent Oil Fund. Before taking his current position, Mark worked for companies such as Goldman Sachs, Soros Fund Management and Janus Henderson, where he focused on investments linked to the energy sector.

    Mark explains that the Ascent Oil Fund was formed under the view that there will be a migration in the oil market’s perception from abundance to scarcity, which will cause shares of companies in the sector to rise substantially.

    In the context of recent tensions involving the US and Iran, Gordon explains how conflicts in the Middle East may or may not impact oil prices, depending on the factors involved.

    From a historical perspective, Mark discusses the role that perception and sentiment, regarding oil scarcity or abundance, plays on prices and market performance. He also lists the reasons why he believes we are in a transition period in regards to this sentiment.

    Gordon still contrasts the inventory and sentiment factors from the point of view of their influence on the price of the commodity and its related assets.

    Mark talks about shale companies, highlighting the operational and financial aspects compared to conventional oil companies, their advantages and also points criticised by analysts. After that he puts forward his expectations for the industry.

    On the recent performance of oil and gas stocks, Gordon provides insights into the possible reasons for the poor performance of securities, especially the E&P ones, even amid higher oil prices.

    Mark brings a totally unexpected perspective on the impact that electric vehicles have on the oil sector and the consequences he sees on the development of the EV industry.

    Finally, Gordon talks about how he is investing to capture what he believes to be a turnaround in the oil and gas industry, highlighting the types of companies he is fond of in the current scenario and the ones he believes should benefit from the change in sentiment, from abundance to scarcity.

    • 38 min
    Podcast #23: Harris Kupperman - Opportunities

    Podcast #23: Harris Kupperman - Opportunities

    In today's episode, Marcelo López talked to Harris Kupperman, mostly known as Kuppy. Harris is the founder of Pretorium Capital and is famous for being a fund manager with unconventional investment ideas, some of which he writes in the blog “Adventures in Capitalism” (https://adventuresincapitalism.com/). He is always looking for asymmetrical investment opportunities in sectors that are disregarded or even scorned by most investors, which generally end up being the ones with huge potential for appreciation.

    Initially, Kuppy discusses his views of the current market and system situation, the possibility of a crash, the factors involved, inflation, central bank performance and comments on what he calls Ponzi stocks.

    In this context, Kupperman discusses private equity, the preference of institutional investors for businesses involving privately held companies to the detriment of publicly traded ones, players' perception of volatility and the risks involved in this type of market.

    Kuppy talks about being short on the market under current circumstances and how he prefers to be long on some assets as a way to position himself for a market turnaround. From this perspective, he presents the investment thesis of the second largest position in his portfolio, with considerations on micro and macroeconomic aspects, which show his thinking when seeking investments.

    Harris also compares the latest financial crisis of 2007-08 against the current scenario, with considerations and analysis of interest rates, defaults, the real estate and mortgage markets.

    Kuppy talks about commodities and explains why he believes they are the biggest investment opportunity at the moment. On this occasion, he highlights uranium and its peculiarities.

    Kupperman, who participated in the last uranium bull market, describes the factors that influenced the last cycle of appreciation of the commodity, and draws a comparison with the current situation in the sector.

    Harris explains the investment thesis involving shipping companies, which today is the largest position in his portfolio. He highlights the cyclical behavior of the industry and the factors that may be critical to a huge appreciation of companies in this industry.

    • 25 min
    Podcast #22: Mike Alkin - Uranium

    Podcast #22: Mike Alkin - Uranium

    In today's episode, Marcelo López spoke with Mike Alkin, co-founder of Sachem Cove Partners and manager of an American uranium-focused hedge fund. Mike has been following this market for over 4 years as an investor and was a speaker at the International Uranium Fuel Seminar hosted by the Nuclear Energy Institute (NEI) in Nashville, USA, in the last week of October.

    Alkin, who also attended the World Nuclear Association (WNA) Symposium in London, commented on the biennial report released by the organizers and on the differences between the two events, highlighting the significant attendance of uranium buyers at the NEI-hosted seminar in the USA.

    Mike spoke about his presentation at the conference, which focused on the uranium price discovery, i.e., the process of pricing the U3O8 market from a macro and historical perspective. He drew attention to the fact that this industry is scarcely covered by sell-side analysts, and that the consensus adopted by the uranium buyers lacks important and easily refuted fallacious aspects.

    In addition to highlighting factors that are hindering the industry, such as the Section 232 petition and the Trump administration's creation of the Nuclear Fuel Working Group, Mike talked about the functioning of the spot market, its peculiarities and the movements it has observed in terms of player participation and trading volumes in contrast to other times and circumstances.

    Finally, Alkin discussed a major issue for investors in the industry, which is the inactivity of buyers in the face of low and unsustainable prices in an attempt to anticipate a price hike and secure low-priced material. Mike explains how the activities of buyers' professionals are structured, the incentives they have and the way they have acted historically.

    • 39 min
    Podcast #21: Tavi Costa - Macro Research

    Podcast #21: Tavi Costa - Macro Research

    In today's episode, Marcelo López talked to Otávio Costa, better known in the financial markets as Tavi Costa. Tavi is a portfolio manager at Crescat Capital and he is responsible for macro research.

    Tavi begins by talking about his trajectory in the financial markets and tells us more about Crescat Capital, an American company that manages hedge funds. He has been working for this company for the past 6 years.

    Then Tavi talks about the main topics he's looking at right now and gives us an overview of those topics.

    Tavi then discusses each of the themes in more detail, exploring historical data and using Crescat's proprietary models.

    He has a very interesting insight into the US position in the current cycle, and presents data to justify his opinion.

    When it comes to precious metals, Tavi discusses the current scenario and outlook for the sector. Also, Tavi talks about the relationship between the US Dollar and gold, with a very different point of view from the market.

    Tavi also talks about China, likely future developments in that country, and what Crescat Capital is doing now.

    Finally, Tavi reviews his investment thesis and says what can make him change his mind about his investment positions.

    • 27 min
    Podcast #20: Chat with Bram Vanderelst – Uranium Trader

    Podcast #20: Chat with Bram Vanderelst – Uranium Trader

    In today's episode, Marcelo López spoke with Bram Vanderelst, head of the uranium trading desk at Curzon Resources. Bram, who attended the World Nuclear Association (WNA) Symposium in early September, agreed to come to the L2 Capital podcast and share with us his market insights and his experience in this profession, which is so little known.

    Bram Vanderelst, who is a chemical engineer, tells us about his experience and professional career and explains that at Curzon they have a dedicated desk for buying and selling uranium daily in the spot and long term markets.

    He, who has accumulated more than 6 years in the profession, talks about the role that a uranium trading desk has for the nuclear fuel market and how it provides liquidity for the industry, even though there are large participants from both sides, i.e., utilities and miners.

    Bram talks about the daily life of a trader's profession in a niche commodity such as uranium, the kind of information that has to be researched, contacts that need to be made, and the analysis that needs to be done.

    Bram Vanderelst discusses his view of the market with an analysis that begins with the events of Fukushima, the reverberations that the incident caused on the market, on uranium stocks and how the situation has evolved since then. He also comments on the commodity supply deficit and the outlook for supply / demand balance, with comments on the sources actually available.

    Bram Vanderelst also discusses the issue of inventories’ tracking, the availability of data and figures related to them compared to other commodities such as oil, for example.

    Vanderelst analyzes the effects that Cameco's announced purchase in the spot market of 10m lbs of U3O8 by year-end should have on prices, with considerations of material availability at different price levels and locations.

    On the possibility of price variation between locations, Bram explains the arbitrage practices and the reasons that lead to divergences within the context of the nuclear fuel cycle.

    Vanderelst makes an assessment of the factors that led to a sharp rise in the conversion prices of U3O8 to UF6 and the possibility that something similar could occur with yellow cake, going through current price levels, mining incentives and the specificities of the uranium market.

    Finally, Bram draws attention to what he considers to be the risks that investors, utilities and miners could be ignoring or not paying due attention to.

    To know more about L2 Capital Partners, please check out our website!

    The L2 Capital Podcast focuses on potential opportunities in the market, and brings to you industry leaders and intelligent conversation about their respective areas of expertise.

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    • 22 min
    Podcast #19: Chat with Bill Fleckenstein

    Podcast #19: Chat with Bill Fleckenstein

    In today's episode, Marcelo López spoke to Bill Fleckenstein, an investment manager with over 30 years of experience in the financial market. Bill shares his comments, market insights and investment ideas on the website fleckensteincapital.com.br.

    Bill begins by discussing the magnitude of the attack on Saudi Arabia may have on markets depending on the actions taken in response to the incident and ponders about risk premiums and how agents have reacted to geopolitical tensions recently.

    Fleckenstein then talks about the possibility that we are experiencing a bubble in the financial markets and the role that central banks, trading algorithms and passive investment vehicles play in this context, all from a historical and economic perspective, elucidating situations of distortion in asset prices.

    On the possibility of a crash, Bill comments on Fed interventions, the impact of monetary policy on the market and what may be the catalyst for a strong correction, as well as aspects of the current scenario that are unprecedented in history and thus create more uncertainties.

    Now is a good time to be shorting stocks? Fleckenstein, who has been very successful in the past with a short only fund, explains his point of view about being short at the moment and justifies, based on his perceptions of current market conditions, the valuations and prices observed.

    Bill also talks about investing in gold and other precious metals, as well as gold mining, in contrast to other asset classes such as bonds and currencies, considering all the factors hitherto exposed.

    As for the US-China trade war, Fleckenstein discusses his views on the issue and his expectations of a resolution for the problem. He also talks about the way Trump and next year's US elections might impact those obstacles.

    Bill concludes with an analysis of risks that are not being properly priced by the market.

    • 28 min

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