MNI FedSpeak Podcasts Hosted by Pedro da Costa | Greg Quinn | Jean Yung
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MNI FedSpeak - Unearthing fresh Fed policy thinking and market intelligence
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IMF's Jason Wu: Emerging Markets Face 'Last Mile' Test
Emerging markets have shown surprising resilience in the current Fed hiking cycle but must remain vigilant.
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MNI ECBSpeak
Financial market-based measures and surveys proved more reliable than macroeconomic models at estimating the neutral real rate of interest during the abrupt economic fluctuations of the pandemic, European Central Bank economists told MNI, adding that r-star is now at similar levels to pre-Covid times.
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Warsh Says Stubborn Inflation Won’t Stop Cuts
Former Fed board governor Kevin Warsh thinks the Fed's signaling of rate cuts this year prematurely loosened financial conditions, making its own job of bringing inflation back to 2% harder.
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Bank of Canada To Be Careful To Avoid U-Turn-Stillo
Former Ontario forecaster and Canada Director at Oxford Economics Tony Stillo says the central bank will want to avoid public backlash against any misstep towards lower interest rates, and says that will delay a rate cut until June and keep it well above neutral all year.
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Fed Can Be Patient On Cuts Amid Soft Landing-Carpenter
Federal Reserve officials will probably wait until midyear before lowering interest rates despite market hopes for cuts as early as March, as inflation data stay choppy in coming months before resuming a downward trend, former Fed board economist Seth Carpenter told MNI
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MNI FedSpeaks Podcast
The eurozone economy is likely to avoid recession, but inflation should slow sufficiently for the European Central Bank to reduce its benchmark deposit rate by around 150 basis points this year, former ECB economist Riccardo Trezzi told MNI.
Markets are moving rapidly to price in cuts, noted Trezzi, who said that while January’s Governing Council meeting should produce little change the possibility of downward surprises to inflation meant that cuts could begin to be considered by as early as March.
“When markets understand that something has changed, in this case for the good, they always go ahead of the curve and try to anticipate because it’s the way you make money,” said Trezzi, who worked on the Federal Reserve Board’s inflation desk before taking on a similar role at the ECB.