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FiveThirtyEight Politics ABC News
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4,7 • 86 betyg
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The 538 team covers the latest in politics, tracking the issues and "game-changers" every week.
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538's New Polling Averages Show Close Presidential Race
The 538 presidential general election polling averages are officially live! That means no more poll-by-poll whiplash; for a sense of the state of the race nationally and in the battleground states, head to abcnews.com/538.
In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen speaks with Director of Data Analytics G. Elliott Morris about the main takeaways from the averages and what kinds of data they consider.
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Are Mike Johnson’s Days Numbered?
After months of conflict over whether or how to aid American allies abroad, the House passed a slate of bills providing funding for Ukraine, Israel, Gazan humanitarian assistance and Taiwan. Each bill won a clear bipartisan majority, but a slim majority of Republicans opposed Ukraine aid.
In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen speaks with Rachael Bade, Geoffrey Skelley and Kaleigh Rogers about why this happened now and whether it spells doom for House Speaker Mike Johnson. They also preview primary election day in one of the most pivotal states this fall: Pennsylvania. And they mark Earth Day with an installment of "Guess What Americans Think," on the topic of climate change.
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In Trump Trial, Jury Selection Is Part Politics
The jury selection process is still underway in former President Donald Trump's Manhattan criminal trial. In order to get on the jury, Manhattanites responded to a questionnaire with 42 questions ranging from whether they belong to QAnon or Antifa to what podcasts they listen to. The attorneys on both sides scrutinized their social media posts, asked them about their opinions of Trump, and had the opportunity to ask they be removed from consideration.
This is all with the goal of impaneling an unbiased jury. It’s one of the most important parts of the process and also gets at the heart of a lot of what we talk about on the 538 Politics podcast. Based on a person’s own biography and demography, how do they feel about the former president and his criminal prosecution?
In this installment of the podcast, Galen speaks with law professors Jessica Roth and Valerie Hans about the challenges of jury selection and what lack of bias we can expect from jurors in such a unique trial.
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The Political Stakes Of Trump's First Trial
Monday marked the start of the first-ever criminal trial of a former president. The case — one of potentially four trials facing former President Donald Trump — revolves around alleged hush money payments made to Stormy Daniels to try to conceal damaging information during the 2016 election. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew looks at the political stakes of the case and how they compare to Trump's other legal liability.
They also discuss how Republicans are positioning themselves on Arizona's unpopular 1864-era abortion ban and debate whether the latest campaign fundraising data actually says anything about the competitiveness of the presidential candidates.
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What's Up With The Kids These Days?
In the 2020 election, young voters were key to President Joe Biden’s victory. Biden won voters age 18 to 29 by more than 20 points, and the turnout rate among young voters was the highest it has been in decades. But recent polls show Biden slipping among voters under 30. The upshot spells danger for Democrats: According to 538's Swing-O-Matic, if young voters shifted toward former President Donald Trump this fall by just 5 points and everything else remained the same, Trump would win.
In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen discusses young voters’ role in the 2024 election with John Della Volpe, the director of polling at the Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics, and Lakshya Jain, partner at the election modeling website Split-Ticket.org.
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Tim Scott Is The Leading Trump VP Contender
On this solar eclipse day installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew tests their polling knowledge on the rare celestial event with a special edition of “Guess What Americans Think.” They also preview 538’s new Swing-O-Matic, a tool that lets you model demographic changes in the 2024 election and see their resulting electoral impacts. And in our latest installment of the 2024 VP draft, the crew takes a guess at who could be former President Donald Trump’s pick for the position.
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Kundrecensioner
Geeky and great
Would love to go even deeper into poliing and statistics.
Great show but miss Claires insights
Great show but miss Claire M’s comments and insights.
Great concept, bad excecution
Don’t get me wrong, I’ve been an avid reader of the webpage for the last 14 years and have listened to this podcast on and off for a year (the Yang one was great!).
What saddens me is what this podcast is pretending to be is exactly what the US needs. The problem is that the the podcast is predictable, long-winded and basically rehashes the same content over and over again. I’ve seldom heard anything that cannot be read on the website. It is also too PC and polite. The commentators being colleagues makes it so they do not dare to call each other out even when someone is obviously barking up the wrong tree. The topics and conclusions are also very predictable and similar to the headline of the average decently objective political newspaper.
I would’ve liked an alternative pod feed from 538 with more concise and less repetitive content. I’d like them to bring on a guest for each show to mix things up. Finally I wish for an interesting question from a new angle each time and a TLDL at the last 3 minutes of each episode.