Welcome to The Business Brew
This podcast’s mission is to dig deep into the thought patterns and analysis of investors and business people. The podcast stemmed from Bill Brewster consistently feeling like he was listening to prepackaged material while listening to podcasts. Instead, he wanted long form, in depth, discussions about finance, capital allocation, and the psychology of investing/business.
Bill is a private investor. He cohosts the podcast Value: After Hours with Tobias Carlisle and Jake Taylor. Tobias, Jake and Bill met at a Berkshire Hathaway meeting and formed a lasting friendship. And, as it turns out, people really like the podcast.
While Bill tries to replicate Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger’s thought processes, he is heavily influenced by Bill Miller III, Stan Druckenmiller, and others. This podcast is his attempt to dig deeper into other investing/business philosophies and share the knowledge with the world.
We are interested in interviewing portfolio managers, Wall Street sell side analysts, buy side analysts, private investors, owner operators, and anyone that is willing to go in depth about running a company/division. So, if you are interested in participating please email us with the subject “Guest Appearance.”
Disclaimer: Bill manages a portfolio under the name of Sullimar Capital Group. This podcast is for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing in this podcast or on SullimarCapital.Group is investment advice. All information in this is opinion based, potentially biased, and requires verification.
Bill and his guests make no representation, warranty or undertaking, express or implied, as to the accuracy, reliability, completeness or reasonableness of the information contained in these podcasts. Any assumptions, opinions and estimates expressed constitute the participant’s judgment as of the date thereof and are subject to change without notice. Any projections contained in the information are based on a number of assumptions as to market conditions and there can be no guarantee that any projected outcomes will be achieved. This podcast does not accept any liability for any direct, consequential or other loss arising from reliance on the contents of this presentation.
This podcast series DOES NOT CONSTITUTE AN OFFER TO SELL OR THE SOLICIATION OF AN OFFER TO BUY ANY SECURITIES MENTIONED OR DISCUSSED. Seek the your financial, tax, legal, accounting, or other advisor’s advice before making any investment decisions. We are not your fiduciary or advisor.
Cullen Roche - Why Macro Matters
Cullen Roche is the Founder of Discipline Funds. Discipline Funds is a low fee financial advisory and asset management firm. Prior to establishing his own business, Mr. Roche founded his own investment partnership in 2005 after working at Merrill Lynch Global Wealth Management where he helped oversee $500MM+ in assets under management. During the the 7 years running the partnership he was able to guide the small business to high risk adjusted returns with no negative full year returns during one of the most turbulent periods in stock market history.
Mr. Roche's primary areas of expertise include global macro portfolio construction, quantitative risk management, behavioral finance and monetary theory.
He is regularly cited in the Wall Street Journal, on CNBC and in the Financial Times. Mr. Roche is a Georgetown University alumnus, growing up in the DC area and now living in San Diego, California with his fiancée Erica and their problem child, Cal, an Australian Shepherd.
You can find Cullen's bio here: https://www.pragcap.com/meet-cullen-roche/
Detailed Show Notes:
1:34 - The fully loaded cost of housing
4:23 - Japanese real estate and what it may mean for real estate in the US
5:54 - Housing as a central component not just to the economy, but to everyone’s balance sheet
8:16 - Housing in other countries whose Central Banks are more aggressive
16:32 - How consumers act in the beginning of economic slowdowns
17:43 - The Fed is worryied about the short term inflation rate
20:41 - The likelihood or more fiscal stimulus in a big downturn
23:08 - How banking operates in panics
32:33 - How Quantitative Easing works
47:36 - The Buffett approach in investing
52:40 - Focusing on investor behavior
54:07 - The inter-temporal (mismatched time horizons) conundrum
1:02:39 - Behavioral problems in a 60/40 portfolio
1:06:17 - Thoughts on diversification
1:15:20 - The biggest benefit of understanding macro finance
Craig Moffett - A True Expert
Craig Moffett has covered the telecommunications industry – first as a management consultant and later as a Wall Street analyst – for more than thirty years. He has been elected to Institutional Investor Magazine’s All-American Research Team in the U.S. Telecom and/or Cable & Satellite sectors on seventeen separate occasions, including nine separate appearances as the #1 analyst in America in either U.S. Telecom and/or Cable & Satellite.
Prior to founding MoffettNathanson, Mr. Moffett spent more than ten years at Sanford Bernstein & Co., LLC as a senior research analyst. He was previously the President and founder of the e-commerce business at Sotheby’s Holdings, the venerable auction house, where, in 1999, he led Sothebys.com to what was then the highest first year sales of any consumer website ever launched. Mr. Moffett spent more than eleven years at The Boston Consulting Group, where he was a Partner and Vice President specializing in telecommunications. He was the leader of BCG’s global Telecommunications practice from 1996 to 1999. While at BCG, he led client initiatives in the U.S. local, long distance, and wireless sectors, in both consumer and commercial services, and advised companies outside the U.S. in Europe, Latin America, and Asia.
Mr. Moffett graduated from Harvard Business School with Honors in 1989. He received a BA from Brown University, where he was magna cum laude and Phi Beta Kappa, in 1984.
Detailed Show Notes -
5:41 - Why Silicon Valley Bank is a good fit for MoffettNathanson
6:50 - Why telecom is a hard business
7:40 - The history of US telecom
10:10 - How cable incubated an industry under AT&T/telecom's business
15:52 - How does cable compete with fiber going forward?
17:47 - High splits, node splits, who gives a split?
22:50 - Cable strategy and why high splits are the current strategy
29:09 - Wireless vs. broadband going forward
35:00 - The physics of wireless
46:00 - Verizon's big strategic decision was correct but implementation left something lacking
51:10 - Cable's wireless offering and how it fits into the competitive set
58:44 - What does broadband's growth runway look like?
1:03:45 - How do fiber overbuilders factor into the future?
1:08:00 - The fiber bubble will burst. Then some Altice discussion.
Mark Newfield - Keep Going!
Mark started his professional work life as a consultant with Accenture, where he helped clients for 14 years. He founded his advisory business in 2005, and in 2022 joined Journey Strategic wealth through a merger of his firm with Journey. Prior to graduating from university, he was an auto mechanic, was in the auto parts industry, and spent time as a retail store manager. Mark’s focus has always been either providing advice or fixing things. What drives Mark is helping others reach their goals.
Mark believes both financial freedom and fun can occur concurrently. You will find that he has an active (sometimes too active!) sense of humor. He’s quite proud that his teammates Angela and Melissa have been with him for 14 and 12 years and will do everything possible to make sure Danielle stays “forever”, as well. He’s a little nutty about college basketball, golf, and several other sports. In addition, he loves taking beach and golf trips with his family and is an avid reader.
Mark holds an Accounting degree from Virginia Commonwealth University as well as the CFP® and RICP® designations.
Thank you to @mathewpassy (on Twitter) for the show production.
Please leave us a rating in your favorite podcast player!
6:00 - Mark's background
17:30 - Embrace your strengths and weaknesses
22:30 - Good moments coming from scary times
27:30 - Starting a business from a passion
29:00 - Building teams
34:00 - Mark's approach to advising
37:24 - Where Mark thinks we are relative to history
46:50 - The power of checks and balances
50:45 - Finding and retaining employees
58:30 - Thinking about planning for aging
1:10:00 - Why you need to get your Power of Attorney documents done!
1:13:00 - Talking to the older member of your family about the aging process
Matt Cochrane - Moats and More
Matt Cochrane (@Matt_Cochrane7 on Twitter) stops by The Business Brew to discuss his investment philosophy, how it’s evolved over the past few years, Big Tech, and more. Matt is a police officer with a passion for investing.
He began his investment education by studying The Motley Fool discussion boards. Bill and Matt catch up regularly and Bill always enjoys chatting with Matt. This week they decided to record one of those conversations.
We hope you enjoy the discussion.
Alex Morris - TSOH Returns
This episode features Alex Morris of TSOH Investment Research. You can find his Substack at https://substack.com/profile/10489671-the-science-of-hitting. In this episode, Alex and Bill have a casual conversation; mostly about media and cable.
Through the conversation you will hear how Alex thinks about partnering with companies and management teams for the long term. You will also hear how Alex thinks about competitive positions and strategic decision making.
Alex is a wonderful person that is sharing his investment journey publicly. We hope you enjoy the conversation and, should you decide to subscribe, enjoy his research as well.
Thank you to @mathewpassy (on Twitter) for the show production.
Please leave us a rating in your favorite podcast player!
Daniel Needham - Multi Asset Investing
Daniel Needham, CFA, stops by The Business Brew for a wide ranging discussion. Daniel is a wealth of knowledge. He is president of Morningstar’s Wealth Management Solutions, which includes software and aggregation capabilities from Morningstar Office and ByAllAccounts, and the individual investor experience across Morningstar.com, and Morningstar Investment Management.
After the recent acquisition, he also oversees the U.K. and international business of Praemium and their core products, which were re-branded to Morningstar Wealth Platform and Wealthcraft, a Morningstar company.
Prior to his current role, Needham served as president and global chief investment officer since 2015 for Morningstar’s Investment Management group, a unit of Morningstar, Inc., that provides managed portfolio services, retirement, and investment advisory for financial institutions, plan sponsors, and advisors through investment management entities around the world.
In 2013, Needham stepped into the global chief investment officer role for the Investment Management group, and he also assumed responsibility for Morningstar’s investment management operations in Europe. Previously, Needham was chief investment officer and managing director for Investment Management in Asia-Pacific, including Ibbotson Associates Australia, where he led the group’s business and investment activities in the region.
Needham joined Morningstar in 2009 through the company’s acquisition of Intech Pty Ltd., where he served as chief investment officer. He also held other investment roles including analyst, portfolio manager, and head of multi-strategy. Before joining Intech in 2002, Needham worked for Zurich Financial Services in Sydney. Needham holds a bachelor’s degree in commerce from the University of Sydney, where he majored in finance and economics.
He also holds the Chartered Financial Analyst® designation and is an interested trustee for the Morningstar Funds Trust.
Supplemental Information -
Following the podcast recording, Mr. Needham sent the following information to Bill (shared with permission):
Here are some useful books to learn more about MMT and Post-Keynesian economics. It pays to tread carefully with all this stuff given the political leaning of the respective economic schools of thought.
Soft Currency Economics – Warren Mosler – provides a lens to why the system is different for certain governments post the gold standard
John Maynard Keynes – Hyman Minsky – one of the best early critiques of the modern economic consensus that dominates central banks and government treasuries