Voice for CHOICE (China Observers in Central and Eastern Europe‪)‬ Filip Sebok

While it is true that China has served as a crucial economic support for Russia during the war in Ukraine, it has not fully compensated for the decline in Russian export revenue from the EU. Beijing has supplied Moscow with dual-use goods and technology but there has been no direct provision of lethal military equipment from China to Russia, as the Chinese government and businesses are wary of triggering Western secondary sanctions and losing access to the European market. Thus, It is unlikely that the Chinese government and defense companies will substantially support Russia with heavy weaponry and ammunition in its ongoing conflict against Ukraine. One reason for China holding back is the nuanced and cautious attitude of its foreign policy elites on Russia’s war.

This month’s guest


Dr Thomas Eder, Visiting Fellow at China Observers in Central and Eastern Europe (CHOICE), Post-Doc Researcher at the Austrian Institute for International Affairs (oiip).

Show notes


⁠Will China Save Russia’s Military in 2023? – Chinese Expert Debates on China-Russia Relations and the Long War in Ukraine⁠
⁠Chinese Approaches to the Eastern Neighborhood⁠
⁠Moscow’s Failed Pivot to China⁠
⁠China-Russia Relations in Central Asia

In the past few years, Hungary has seen a surge in new investments from Chinese companies in the EV industry. Chinese battery and EV makers have been attracted by the favorable political climate and generous state support. Additionally, Hungary and China have been working towards closer collaboration in the areas of policing and security. During a recent visit by China's Minister of Public Security, Wang Xiaohong, the two countries signed a series of agreements aimed at improving cooperation in these areas. This will allow Chinese police to patrol alongside Hungarian police on Hungarian soil. As a result of these developments, Hungary is increasingly becoming a hub of Chinese influence in the region. In the past, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has been accused of acting as a trojan horse for China within the EU, as he has opposed measures aimed at China. With Hungary's growing dependency on China, this trend is likely to continue.

This month’s guest

Szabolcs Panyi, Investigative Editor at the VSquare Project.

Show notes


Goulas: Tales of Spying, Smuggling, and Chinese Influence
Hungary Could Turn into China's Trojan Horse in Europe


The Fight Over Fudan: A Chinese University in Budapest Sparks Reckoning for Sino-Hungarian Relations

In January 2024, the European Commission revealed five new initiatives aimed at advancing the implementation of its Economic Security Strategy, which was formally introduced in the summer of the previous year. The proposal seeks to tighten inbound investment screening rules and create greater export control conformity within the EU. With regard to outbound investment screening, which is the most controversial issue of the package, the Commission remains relatively sober. The strategy calls for a risk assessment of outbound investment and related security issues through a public consultation process. The package puts a strong focus on research security. However, there is little that can be done at the EU level since the competencies are mainly spread among national, sub-national, and institutional levels in the Member States. While the package aims to scale up dual-use and advanced research, it lacks a financial strategy to strengthen the bloc’s technological and industrial capabilities.

This month’s guest

Tobias Gehrke, Senior Policy Fellow at the Global European Council on Foreign Relations.

Show notes


A maker, not a taker: Why Europe needs an economic security mechanism


The power of control: How the EU can shape the new era of strategic export restrictions
High-voltage trade: How Europe should fight the electric vehicle wars
Missing money: Why Europe’s economic security requires a critical technology investment plan
Strategy and risk: How to make the Green Deal Industrial Plan a geoeconomic success

Despite Beijing’s attempts to influence the elections, Taiwan’s commitment to democracy has prevailed, and the people of Taiwan elected their new leader last week. William Lai, from the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), emerged victorious in the recent presidential race. This result is likely to sustain the status quo in cross-strait relations, characterized by continued tensions and limited dialogue. Beijing’s reaction to the elections has been relatively muted compared to the massive incursions following US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in 2022. However, Nauru’s announcement to sever ties with Taiwan and establish relations with Beijing came as a surprise to many. Taiwan is grappling with diminishing international recognition, struggling to keep pace with China’s dollar diplomacy. The question now is whether Taiwan can offset these losses by expanding unofficial relations with like-minded countries.

This month’s guest

Michael Mazza, Senior Director at the Project 2049 Institute and Senior Non-resident Fellow at the Global Taiwan Institute.

Show notes


Taiwan keeps choosing democracy — and rejecting China
The Axis of Disorder: How Russia, Iran, and China Want to Remake the World
The Wrong Way to Lower Tensions in the Taiwan Strait

The 2024 presidential election in Taiwan holds great significance as it will determine the future of Taiwan's relationship with China, the United States, and the rest of the world. Though the West often views Taiwan's elections through the lens of cross-strait relations and the risk of Beijing's invasion, most Taiwanese voters are more concerned with domestic issues such as housing policy, low wages, and energy security. The elections will also reflect how the Taiwanese people view their national identity and sovereignty. The three candidates have different strategies for dealing with the cross-strait issues and enhancing Taiwan's global presence. Contrary to previous elections, the results remain uncertain as the race is expected to be tight. One of the significant challenges facing Taiwan is the threat of disinformation and propaganda from China, which aims to sway public opinion and undermine democracy in Taiwan.

This month's guest


Marcin Jerzewski, Head of Taiwan Office of the European Values Center for Security Policy and Research Fellow at Taiwan NextGen Foundation.

Show notes


Lithuania-Taiwan Relations: A Temperature Check
Taiwan should support CEE ties
Appreciating the Importance of Taiwan’s Parliamentary Diplomacy

After the honeymoon period of Czech-China relations that started in 2013, the bilateral ties gradually soured. This shift was linked to the perceived lack of benefits stemming from economic cooperation and various security-related events that gave rise to skepticism regarding the profitability and viability of closer ties with China. The current government, sworn in 2021, has been cautious towards Beijing and has worked towards improvement of ties with Taiwan. In March this year, Speaker of the Parliament Markéta Pekarová Adamová led a strong delegation to Taipei, resulting in the signing of a number of business deals and establishing cooperation between academia, and even military, and security services. The new President Petr Pavel made news for speaking over the phone with Tsai Ying-wen, who called him in January to congratulate him on his election victory. Czechia thus established itself as one of Taiwan’s best friends within the EU.

This month's guest


Petr Kolář, Advisor to President Petr Pavel, Senior Advisor at Squire Patton Boggs Prague.