UBS On-Air: Market Moves Client Strategy Office

US President Biden called China “xenophobic” in comments highlighting China’s structural economic challenges. Biden also pledged higher taxes on US consumers of China’s steel and aluminum. US Congress lives in terror that China will learn the “Texas hold‘em” TikTok dance before Speaker Johnson has mastered the moves, and is proposing to tie a TikTok ban to aid measures for Ukraine and Israel.

Torsten rejoins Jason in the studio for a discussion around the US macroeconomic environment, including an outlook for growth, inflation and Fed rate cuts. We also spend time outlining portfolio positioning preferences. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office, and Torsten Slok, Partner and Chief Economist with Apollo Global Management. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Federal Reserve Chair Powell is not an economist. Not everyone can be an economist, but central bank heads probably should be economists. Yesterday, Powell stated reaching 2% inflation was taking longer than expected. The US PCE deflator is 2.5% y/y, the core PCE deflator is 2.8% y/y, and harmonized inflation is 2.4% y/y. Imprecise data means most economists regard a 2% inflation target as meaning a 1%-to-3% range. The fictional owners’ equivalent rent may be taking longer than expected to reach 2%, but that is not the same thing as inflation.

Listen to our first ElectionWatch virtual event, where Solita Marcelli, Chief Investment Officer Americas, was joined by Frank Kelly, Founder & Managing Partner at Fulcrum Macro Advisors LLC, Mike Rogers, Former Director of the National Security Agency, and David Rubenstein, Co-Founder of The Carlyle Group.

This new monthly podcast focuses on topics that help families understand the basics of investing and financial planning at three different levels of depth (Definition, Identification, and Implementation). Featured to discuss the topic of “risk” are Justin Waring, Senior Total Wealth Strategist, and Ainsley Carbone, Retirement Strategist, from the UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

China’s official first quarter GDP data reported surprising strength. Unsurprisingly, this surprise will make the official 2024 growth target easier to achieve. March economic data was less supportive, with weakness evident in production and retail sales figures. The industrial data may reflect the ongoing pivot away from goods by global consumers. Amidst the general hedonism of yesterday’s US retail sales data, the trend away from spending on durables and in favor of spending on services was evident.