Clearer Thinking with Spencer Greenberg Spencer Greenberg

Read the full transcript here. (https://podcast.clearerthinking.org/episode/208/#transcript) • What exactly is quantum computing? How much should we worry about the possibility that quantum computing will break existing cryptography tools? When will a quantum computer with enough horsepower to crack RSA likely appear? On what kinds of tasks will quantum computers likely perform better than classical computers? How legitimate are companies that are currently selling quantum computing solutions? How can scientists help to fight misinformation and misunderstandings about quantum computing? To what extent should the state of the art be exaggerated with the aim of getting people excited about the possibilities the technology might afford and encouraging them to invest in research or begin a career in the field? Is now a good time to go into the field (especially compared to other similar options, like going into the booming AI field)? • Scott Aaronson is Schlumberger Chair of Computer Science at the University of Texas at Austin and founding director of its Quantum Information Center, currently on leave at OpenAI to work on theoretical foundations of AI safety. He received his bachelor's from Cornell University and his PhD from UC Berkeley. Before coming to UT Austin, he spent nine years as a professor in Electrical Engineering and Computer Science at MIT. Aaronson's research in theoretical computer science has focused mainly on the capabilities and limits of quantum computers. His first book, Quantum Computing Since Democritus , was published in 2013 by Cambridge University Press. He received the National Science Foundation's Alan T. Waterman Award, the United States PECASE Award, the Tomassoni-Chisesi Prize in Physics, and the ACM Prize in Computing; and he is a Fellow of the ACM and the AAAS. Find out more about him at scottaaronson.blog (https://scottaaronson.blog/). • Staff • Spencer Greenberg (https://www.spencergreenberg.com/) — Host / Director • Josh Castle (mailto:joshrcastle@gmail.com) — Producer • Ryan Kessler (https://tone.support/) — Audio Engineer • Uri Bram (https://uribram.com/) — Factotum • WeAmplify (https://www.weamplify.info/) — Transcriptionists • Alexandria D. — Research and Special Projects Assistant • Music • Broke for Free (https://freemusicarchive.org/music/Broke_For_Free/Something_EP/Broke_For_Free_-_Something_EP_-_05_Something_Elated) • Josh Woodward (https://www.joshwoodward.com/song/AlreadyThere) • Lee Rosevere (https://archive.org/details/MusicForPodcasts04/Lee+Rosevere+-+Music+for+Podcasts+4+-+11+Keeping+Stuff+Together.flac) • Quiet Music for Tiny Robots (https://www.freemusicarchive.org/music/Quiet_Music_for_Tiny_Robots/The_February_Album/05_Tiny_Robot_Armies) • wowamusic (https://gamesounds.xyz/?dir=wowamusic) • zapsplat.com (https://www.zapsplat.com/music/summer-haze-slow-chill-out-house-track-with-a-modern-pop-feel-warm-piano-chords-underpin-the-track-with-warm-pads-and-a-repetitive-synth-arpeggio/) • Affiliates • Clearer Thinking (https://www.clearerthinking.org/) • GuidedTrack (https://guidedtrack.com/) • Mind Ease (https://mindease.io/) • Positly (https://positly.com/) • UpLift (https://www.uplift.app/) [Read more: https://podcast.clearerthinking.org/episode/208/scott-aaronson-separating-quantum-computing-hype-from-reality]

Read the full transcript here. (https://podcast.clearerthinking.org/episode/207/#transcript) • Should we pause AI development? What might it mean for an AI system to be "provably" safe? Are our current AI systems provably unsafe ? What makes AI especially dangerous relative to other modern technologies? Or are the risks from AI overblown? What are the arguments in favor of not pausing — or perhaps even accelerating — AI progress? What is the public perception of AI risks? What steps have governments taken to migitate AI risks? If thoughtful, prudent, cautious actors pause their AI development, won't bad actors still keep going? To what extent are people emotionally invested in this topic? What should we think of AI researchers who agree that AI poses very great risks and yet continue to work on building and improving AI technologies? Should we attempt to centralize AI development? • Joep Meindertsma is a database engineer and tech entrepreneur from the Netherlands. He co-founded the open source e-democracy platform Argu (https://argu.co/), which aimed to get people involved in decision-making. Currently, he is the CEO of Ontola.io (https://ontola.io), a software development firm from the Netherlands that aims to give people more control over their data; and he is also working on a specification and implementation for modeling and exchanging data called Atomic Data (https://docs.atomicdata.dev/). In 2023, after spending several years reading about AI safety and deciding to dedicate most of his time towards preventing AI catastrophe, he founded PauseAI (https://pauseai.info/) and began actively lobbying for slowing down AI development. He's now trying to grow PauseAI and get more people in action. Learn more about him on his GitHub page (https://github.com/joepio). • Staff • Spencer Greenberg (https://www.spencergreenberg.com/) — Host / Director • Josh Castle (mailto:joshrcastle@gmail.com) — Producer • Ryan Kessler (https://tone.support/) — Audio Engineer • Uri Bram (https://uribram.com/) — Factotum • WeAmplify (https://www.weamplify.info/) — Transcriptionists • Alexandria D. — Research and Special Projects Assistant • Music • Broke for Free (https://freemusicarchive.org/music/Broke_For_Free/Something_EP/Broke_For_Free_-_Something_EP_-_05_Something_Elated) • Josh Woodward (https://www.joshwoodward.com/song/AlreadyThere) • Lee Rosevere (https://archive.org/details/MusicForPodcasts04/Lee+Rosevere+-+Music+for+Podcasts+4+-+11+Keeping+Stuff+Together.flac) • Quiet Music for Tiny Robots (https://www.freemusicarchive.org/music/Quiet_Music_for_Tiny_Robots/The_February_Album/05_Tiny_Robot_Armies) • wowamusic (https://gamesounds.xyz/?dir=wowamusic) • zapsplat.com (https://www.zapsplat.com/music/summer-haze-slow-chill-out-house-track-with-a-modern-pop-feel-warm-piano-chords-underpin-the-track-with-warm-pads-and-a-repetitive-synth-arpeggio/) • Affiliates • Clearer Thinking (https://www.clearerthinking.org/) • GuidedTrack (https://guidedtrack.com/) • Mind Ease (https://mindease.io/) • Positly (https://positly.com/) • UpLift (https://www.uplift.app/) [Read more: https://podcast.clearerthinking.org/episode/207/joep-meindertsma-should-we-pause-ai-development-until-we-re-sure-we-can-do-it-safely]

Read the full transcript here. (https://podcast.clearerthinking.org/episode/206/#transcript) • What are the facts around Sam Bankman-Fried and FTX about which all parties agree? What was the nature of Will's relationship with SBF? What things, in retrospect, should've been red flags about Sam or FTX? Was Sam's personality problematic? Did he ever really believe in EA principles? Does he lack empathy? Or was he on the autism spectrum? Was he naive in his application of utilitarianism? Did EA intentionally install SBF as a spokesperson, or did he put himself in that position of his own accord? What lessons should EA leaders learn from this? What steps should be taken to prevent it from happening again? What should EA leadership look like moving forward? What are some of the dangers around AI that are not related to alignment? Should AI become the central (or even the sole) focus of the EA movement? • William MacAskill is an associate professor in philosophy at the University of Oxford. At the time of his appointment, he was the youngest associate professor of philosophy in the world. He also cofounded the nonprofits Giving What We Can, the Centre for Effective Altruism, and 80,000 Hours, which together have moved over $300 million to effective charities. He's the author of What We Owe The Future (https://www.williammacaskill.com/what-we-owe-the-future), Doing Good Better (https://www.williammacaskill.com/book), and Moral Uncertainty (https://www.williammacaskill.com/info-moral-uncertainty). • Further reading: • Episode 133: The FTX catastrophe (with Byrne Hobart, Vipul Naik, Maomao Hu, Marcus Abramovich, and Ozzie Gooen) (https://podcast.clearerthinking.org/episode/133/byrne-hobart-vipul-naik-maomao-hu-marcus-abramovich-and-ozzie-gooen-the-ftx-catastrophe/) — Our previous podcast episode about what happened in the FTX disaster • "Who is Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) really, and how could he have done what he did? – three theories and a lot of evidence" (https://www.spencergreenberg.com/2023/11/who-is-sam-bankman-fried-sbf-really-and-how-could-he-have-done-what-he-did-three-theories-and-a-lot-of-evidence/) — Spencer's essay about SBF's personality • Why They Do It: Inside the Mind of the White-Collar Criminal by Eugene Soltes (https://bookshop.org/p/books/why-they-do-it-inside-the-mind-of-the-white-collar-criminal-eugene-soltes/11453706) • Staff • Spencer Greenberg (https://www.spencergreenberg.com/) — Host / Director • Josh Castle (mailto:joshrcastle@gmail.com) — Producer • Ryan Kessler (https://tone.support/) — Audio Engineer • Uri Bram (https://uribram.com/) — Factotum • WeAmplify (https://www.weamplify.info/) — Transcriptionists • Alexandria D. — Research and Special Projects Assistant • Music • Broke for Free (https://freemusicarchive.org/music/Broke_For_Free/Something_EP/Broke_For_Free_-_Something_EP_-_05_Something_Elated) • Josh Woodward (https://www.joshwoodward.com/song/AlreadyThere) • Lee Rosevere (https://archive.org/details/MusicForPodcasts04/Lee+Rosevere+-+Music+for+Podcasts+4+-+11+Keeping+Stuff+Together.flac) • Quiet Music for Tiny Robots (https://www.freemusicarchive.org/music/Quiet_Music_for_Tiny_Robots/The_February_Album/05_Tiny_Robot_Armies) • wowamusic (https://gamesounds.xyz/?dir=wowamusic) • zapsplat.com (https://www.zapsplat.com/music/summer-haze-slow-chill-out-house-track-with-a-modern-pop-feel-warm-piano-chords-underpin-the-track-with-warm-pads-and-a-repetitive-synth-arpeggio/) • Affiliates • Clearer Thinking (https://www.clearerthinking.org/) • GuidedTrack (https://guidedtrack.com/) • Mind Ease (https://mindease.io/) • Positly (https://positly.com/) • UpLift (https://www.uplift.app/) [Read more: https://podcast.clearerthinking.org/episode/206/will-macaskill-what-should-the-effective-altruism-movement-learn-from-the-sbf-ftx-scandal]

Read the full transcript here. (https://podcast.clearerthinking.org/episode/205/#transcript) • How big of a problem is homelessness in the US? How many people in large cities like New York City or Los Angeles are unhoused? What's the best language to use when discussing this issue? How is "homelessness" defined? We usually don't label people without food or water as "foodless" or "waterless"; so why do we label people without homes as "homeless"? Why do we so often look away from the problem, both literally and figuratively? What are the most common events or circumstances that cause people to lose their housing options? What does research show about how unhoused people actually spend their money? What percentage of an average city's unhoused population is represented by the "visible" portion, the people we see on street corners or in tent camps? What percent of unhoused people struggle with mental health problems or substance abuse? What's the average life expectancy of an unhoused person? How much do governments (local, state, and/or federal) spend on homelessness annually? What's the best predictor of whether or not a person will suffer from chronic homelessness? What help — from government institutions, religious organizations, nonprofits, etc. — is available to unhoused people? How hard is it to meet your basic needs when you don't have a place to live? What should we do about unhoused people who refuse help or treatment for mental illnesses or substance abuse? Which nonprofits are working on homelessness? And what kinds of impacts have they made? What interventions are actually effective at solving homelessness on a large scale? What mistakes have the political left and right (in the US) made as they've tried to address homelessness? Demographically speaking, what kinds of people tend to make up unhoused populations in the US? • Kevin F. Adler is a social entrepreneur, sociologist, and author who never learned the word "stranger", and tries to live accordingly. Currently, he is the Founder-In-Residence and Chairman of the Board of Miracle Messages (https://miraclemessages.org/), a nonprofit organization that helps people experiencing homelessness rebuild their social support systems and financial security through family reunification services, a phone buddy program, and the first basic income pilot for unhoused individuals in the US. He is also the bestselling author of When We Walk By: Forgotten Humanity, Broken Systems, and the Role We Can Each Play in Ending Homelessness in America (https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/730751/when-we-walk-by-by-kevin-f-adler-and-donald-w-burnes-with-amanda-banh-and-andrijana-bilbija/), which Publishers Weekly called "a must-read for anyone interested in solving the problem of homelessness." Kevin's pioneering work on homelessness and "relational poverty" as an overlooked form of poverty has been featured in the New York Times (https://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/24/well/family/a-video-project-reconnects-homeless-people-with-families.html), Washington Post (https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/san-francisco-rich-and-poor-turns-to-simple-street-solutions-that-underscore-the-citys-complexities/2018/09/03/d6cf321a-ad4d-11e8-8a0c-70b618c98d3c_story.html?utm_term=.71c2c9a3f574), PBS NewsHour (https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/miracle-money-how-a-guaranteed-income-fund-is-helping-san-franciscos-homeless), The Guardian (https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/dec/30/friends-homeless-nonprofit-miracle-messages-phone-buddy-san-francisco), LA Times (https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2023-05-08/volunteers-connect-with-homeless-people-by-phone-and-sometimes-cash#nt=00000187-fb6b-dd9b-afff-fb7bdc3a0002-showMedia-1col-7030col1-main), and in his TED Talk (https://www.ted.com/talks/kevin_f_adler_don_t_be_a_stranger... [Read more: https://podcast.clearerthinking.org/episode/205/kevin-adler-why-are-so-many-people-experiencing-homelessness-in-big-cities-in-the-u-s-and-what-can-be-do

Read the full transcript here. (https://podcast.clearerthinking.org/episode/204/#transcript) • What are some common techniques for quantifying body language? How hard is it to identify poker "tells"? Are there any facial expressions or body movements that have universal meaning? What can be discerned about group dynamics just from watching a meeting over video call? What are the most common body language mistakes people make when going on dates or trying to make friends? What are the strongest indicators of charisma? How do people signal their social status? What are the most effective ways to deal with trolls? How valid is the concept of micro-expressions? • Blake Eastman is the founder of The Nonverbal Group (http://www.nonverbalgroup.com/), a behavioral research and education company. With a focus on teaching high-level people skills, Eastman has coached executives and teams, and his company is building the world's largest database of contextually coded human interactions. He also founded Behavioral Robotics, an AI deep tech startup teaching machines to read human behavior, and he's known for conducting the largest behavioral study on poker players through his Beyond Tells project. Follow him on Instagram (https://instagram.com/blake_eastman), Twitter / X (https://twitter.com/blakeeastman), and LinkedIn (https://www.linkedin.com/in/beastman/); or email him at blake@nonverbalgroup.com (mailto:blake@nonverbalgroup.com). • Staff • Spencer Greenberg (https://www.spencergreenberg.com/) — Host / Director • Josh Castle (mailto:joshrcastle@gmail.com) — Producer • Ryan Kessler (https://tone.support/) — Audio Engineer • Uri Bram (https://uribram.com/) — Factotum • WeAmplify (https://www.weamplify.info/) — Transcriptionists • Alexandria D. — Research and Special Projects Assistant • Music • Broke for Free (https://freemusicarchive.org/music/Broke_For_Free/Something_EP/Broke_For_Free_-_Something_EP_-_05_Something_Elated) • Josh Woodward (https://www.joshwoodward.com/song/AlreadyThere) • Lee Rosevere (https://archive.org/details/MusicForPodcasts04/Lee+Rosevere+-+Music+for+Podcasts+4+-+11+Keeping+Stuff+Together.flac) • Quiet Music for Tiny Robots (https://www.freemusicarchive.org/music/Quiet_Music_for_Tiny_Robots/The_February_Album/05_Tiny_Robot_Armies) • wowamusic (https://gamesounds.xyz/?dir=wowamusic) • zapsplat.com (https://www.zapsplat.com/music/summer-haze-slow-chill-out-house-track-with-a-modern-pop-feel-warm-piano-chords-underpin-the-track-with-warm-pads-and-a-repetitive-synth-arpeggio/) • Affiliates • Clearer Thinking (https://www.clearerthinking.org/) • GuidedTrack (https://guidedtrack.com/) • Mind Ease (https://mindease.io/) • Positly (https://positly.com/) • UpLift (https://www.uplift.app/) [Read more: https://podcast.clearerthinking.org/episode/204/blake-eastman-common-body-language-mistakes-and-how-to-avoid-making-them]

Read the full transcript here. (https://podcast.clearerthinking.org/episode/203/#transcript) • Is nothing objectively true? What kinds of things are we trying to communicate with the stories we tell? Why do we feel the need to take a side on every issue? Which sorts of issues should be tied to our identities? How can we set the definitions for terms in a conversation, if possible? Should people just believe whatever works for them? Is it better to try to compensate for our biases or to reduce them? Should we strive to have lower confidence in ourselves and our abilities? How should we think about assigning blame when something goes wrong? When should we say yes or no to new opportunities? To what degree should we try to optimize our lives? • Derek Sivers is an author of philosophy and entrepreneurship known for his surprising, quotable insights and pithy, succinct writing style. Formerly a musician, programmer, TED speaker, and circus clown, he sold his first company for $22 million and gave all the money to charity. Sivers’ books ( How to Live , Hell Yeah or No , Your Music and People , and Anything You Want ) and newest projects are at his website: sive.rs (https://sive.rs) • Further reading: • Useful Not True, by Derek Sivers (https://sive.rs/u) (his forthcoming book) • Hamas Covenant 1988: The Covenant of the Islamic Resistance Movement (https://avalon.law.yale.edu/20th_century/hamas.asp) • Staff • Spencer Greenberg (https://www.spencergreenberg.com/) — Host / Director • Josh Castle (mailto:joshrcastle@gmail.com) — Producer • Ryan Kessler (https://tone.support/) — Audio Engineer • Uri Bram (https://uribram.com/) — Factotum • WeAmplify (https://www.weamplify.info/) — Transcriptionists • Alexandria D. — Research and Special Projects Assistant • Music • Broke for Free (https://freemusicarchive.org/music/Broke_For_Free/Something_EP/Broke_For_Free_-_Something_EP_-_05_Something_Elated) • Josh Woodward (https://www.joshwoodward.com/song/AlreadyThere) • Lee Rosevere (https://archive.org/details/MusicForPodcasts04/Lee+Rosevere+-+Music+for+Podcasts+4+-+11+Keeping+Stuff+Together.flac) • Quiet Music for Tiny Robots (https://www.freemusicarchive.org/music/Quiet_Music_for_Tiny_Robots/The_February_Album/05_Tiny_Robot_Armies) • wowamusic (https://gamesounds.xyz/?dir=wowamusic) • zapsplat.com (https://www.zapsplat.com/music/summer-haze-slow-chill-out-house-track-with-a-modern-pop-feel-warm-piano-chords-underpin-the-track-with-warm-pads-and-a-repetitive-synth-arpeggio/) • Affiliates • Clearer Thinking (https://www.clearerthinking.org/) • GuidedTrack (https://guidedtrack.com/) • Mind Ease (https://mindease.io/) • Positly (https://positly.com/) • UpLift (https://www.uplift.app/) [Read more: https://podcast.clearerthinking.org/episode/203/derek-sivers-true-things-useful-things-and-the-differences-between-them]