180 episodes
The Julia La Roche Show Julia La Roche
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- Business
Julia La Roche brings her listeners in-depth conversations with some of the top CEOs, investors, founders, academics, and rising stars in business. Guests on "The Julia La Roche Show" have included Bill Ackman, Ray Dalio, Marc Benioff, Kyle Bass, Hugh Hendry, Nassim Taleb, Nouriel Roubini, David Friedberg, Anthony Scaramucci, Scott Galloway, Brent Johnson, Jim Rickards, Danielle DiMartino Booth, Carol Roth, Neil Howe, Jim Rogers, Jim Bianco, Josh Brown, and many more. Julia always makes the show about the guest, never the host. She speaks less and listens more. She always does her homework.
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#179 Ed Dowd On The Fed's Policy Error And Why We Could See A Bad Correction Ahead
Edward Dowd, Founding Partner of Phinance Technologies, a global macro alternative investment firm, and author of "Cause Unknown: The Epidemic of Sudden Deaths in 2021 & 2022,” joins Julia La Roche on episode 179.
Links:
PhinanceTechnologies: https://phinancetechnologies.com/
Twitter/X: https://x.com/DowdEdward
00:00 Intro and welcome Ed Dowd
00:46 Macro picture
02:14 On the precipice of a slowdown in the economy
03:15 State of the real economy
04:30 Disconnect in the U.S. stock market, a fast and furious correction
10:17 Preparing for the correction: allocating portion to T-Bills
11:38 Generational opportunity
13:30 Growing debt and deficits
15:45 Need the austerity candidate
16:58 A looming crisis
18:48 UBI and a CBDC
22:25 Gold
24:30 Toxic brew
27:29 Erosion of the middle class
29:00 Inflation
30:40 Rate cut
33:00 Policy error of the Fed
36:20 Real estate
38:00 Immigration
40:13 GDI for average middle class went up under Trump
42:12 Chaos creates opportunity
46:12 Phinance Technologies: Providing Alternative Perspectives on the Market -
#178 Peter Boockvar: The Is The Most Mixed And Uneven Economy That I’ve Ever Seen And It Feels More Like A 1.5% GDP Growth Rate Economy Rather Than 3%
Peter Boockvar, Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Financial Group and a CNBC contributor, discusses the mixed and uneven state of the economy. He highlights the contrasting trends in different sectors, such as housing, consumer spending, and manufacturing. Boockvar also discusses the impact of government spending and the labor market on the overall economy. He emphasizes the confusion and challenges faced by the Federal Reserve in managing inflation and interest rates. Boockvar shares his outlook on the future, including the potential for slower US growth, the importance of Asia in driving economic growth, and his investment preferences in commodities and Asian markets.
Links:
Substack/The Boock Report: https://boockreport.com/
Twitter/X: https://x.com/pboockvar
Bleakley Financial Group: https://www.bleakley.com/
Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction and welcome Peter Boockvar
00:51 Macro view, “the most mixed and uneven economy that I've seen” and it feels more like a 1.5% growth rate rather than 3%
04:47 Labor market
05:45 What’s happening in the rest of the world economies?
08:00 Inflation
09:11 The Fed and interest rates
11:03 Bear steepener
13:40 New normal
18:40 Housing market outlook
21:45 When will the rising debt/deficit be a problem? -
#177 Mike Green: Passive Investing Has Turned The Market On Autopilot
Michael Green, Chief Strategist and Portfolio Manager for Simplify Asset Management, joins Julia La Roche on episode 178 for a wide-ranging conversation on the economy and market.
In this episode, Mike Green discusses some of the implications of systematic and passive investment strategies and how they've led to the current market conditions.
Michael has been noted for his work as a market theoretician and financial media participant. He is a graduate of the University of Pennsylvania and a CFA holder.
Links:
Follow Mike on Twitter/x: https://twitter.com/profplum99
Read Mike’s Substack: https://www.yesigiveafig.com/
Visit Simplify: https://www.simplify.us/
0:00 Intro and welcome Mike Green
0:56 Macro picture
2:27 Markets
4:30 The Boomers always win
8:38 Assessment of the health of the economy
12:00 Reduction in hours, increase in part-time work
12:55 Impact of passive investing
20:40 Largest stocks most affected by passive flows
23:00 Everyone has become automated
25:17 How does this end? An accelerated reversal of the gains?
28:49 Perception of retirement wealth
31:00 Ponzi funds
35:30 Social security
37:00 Markets divorced from fundamentals
41:09 The Fed -
#176 Economist Jonathan Treussard On The Extraordinarily Confusing Macro Data, Markets With A Memory Of A Goldfish, And If We're In Bubble Territory
Economist and investor Jonathan Treussard, founder of Treussard Capital Management, a Registered Investment Advisor, joins Julia La Roche on episode 176 to discuss the current state of the economy and markets.
Link:
https://www.treussard.com/julia
Timestamps:
00:00 Intro and welcome Jonathan Treussard
00:52 Macro view, confusing data, too much volatility
04:11 Wealth inequality
05:33 AI
06:33 Is the economy healthy?
07:55 Money illusion
10:07 Bubbles and assessing market valuations
14:36 Geopolitics
17:50 Middle class
19:50 From musician to economist
27:15 Changing perception of America
30:34 Market risks: Nvidia, CRE, Private Equity, and Private Credit
36:00 Banking system
38:33 Concerns about CRE and private credit
41:37 Making decisions under uncertainty
45:12 Parting thoughts -
#175 Chris Whalen: 'We're Hiding A Lot' — Why Commercial Could Be The Next Source Of The Financial Crisis In This Country
Investment banker and author Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors, who is also the author of The Institutional Risk Analyst, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 175 to discuss the economy, the risk in commercial real estate, the upcoming presidential election, and the status of the American dream.
Links:
Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen
Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/
The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/
Stanley Middleman book: https://www.amazon.com/Seeing-Around-Corners-Achieving-Business/dp/B0D5PTSJVC/
Timestamps:
0:00 Intro and welcome Chris Whalen
1:55 Macro view today, an indication that the tide is going back out
4:40 Residential housing will be the last headwind
5:50 Health of the economy? ‘We’re hiding a lot’
7:10 Commercial could be the source of the next financial crisis
11:50 Presidential election
14:00 What a Trump victory would mean
16:00 Our debt and deficit — We’re headed toward a crisis
18:40 The Fed
21:40 Fed’s focus on language and turning markets into a Kindergarten exercise
23:30 We’ve turned the Fed into a corporate earnings exercise
26:00 Inflation
28:31 The American Dream
31:00 Parting thoughts -
#174 James Lavish On The Debt Spiral: They’re Going To Print So Much Money It’s Going To Shock You
"Reformed" hedge fund manager James Lavish, the author of The Informationist newsletter and founder/managing partner of The Bitcoin Opportunity Fund, joins Julia La Roche on episode 174 for a wide-ranging discussion on macro, the pockets of recession especially in the private sector, and a deep dive into the debt problem in the U.S.
Links:
Twitter/X: https://x.com/jameslavish
The Informationist: https://jameslavish.substack.com/
The Bitcoin Opportunity Fund: https://www.bitcoinopportunity.fund/
Timestamps:
0:00 Intro and welcome James Lavish
1:00 Macro view
2:30 Pockets of recession, fiscal dominance, inflation
5:08 Highly manipulated numbers, CPI
10:30 Deficit spending and the economy
12:40 Debt spiral and why the U.S. is a ‘zombie’
17:20 They’re going to print so much money it’s going to shock people
19:50 U.S. Treasuries
28:15 Stagflation
30:00 Dallas Fed survey: recession red flag?
35:00 The government will continue to recklessly spend
37:03 FOMC and jobs
40:50 Parting thoughts, asset allocation