Winthrop Capital Management Winthrop Capital Management

Coming into 2022, our base case for the economy was that the Fed would begin to unwind its easy money policies, raise short term interest rates, and try to reduce the size of its bond portfolio. The assumption was that economic growth would begin to slow and the narrative from the Fed would help to […]

Economy Monetary policy in the first half of this year stands in stark contrast to the past 15 years and investors are navigating capital markets that no longer have government support. The cumulative budget deficits, trade tariffs, supply chain disruptions and rapid money growth have pushed the rate of inflation to 9.1% measured by the […]

The investment environment has changed dramatically from six months ago. After the S&P 500 peaked on December 26th , 2021 at 4766, we are now navigating a much different market environment with higher turbulence. The economy is showing signs of slowing, the Federal Reserve is intent on raising short term interest rates to combat accelerating inflation, […]

Macro View Our concerns of a slowing economy were laid bare over the past two weeks as the Commerce Department reported a decline in Gross Domestic Product of -0.4% for the first quarter of 2022. This was the first decline since the early days of the pandemic, and a reversal of the 1.7% growth seen […]

Macro View The factors that investors evaluate to determine valuation and risk have changed dramatically over the past five months, which has shifted expect returns lower. Here is a summary of the changes in the factors investors are evaluating: The global economy is slowing instead of expanding as initially thought. The spread of the Delta […]

This was supposed to be the year of economic recovery after a two-year pandemic nearly destroyed the global economy. However, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently reduced its growth forecast for the world economy. According to its latest World Economic Outlook, published in January, the IMF now expects global gross domestic product to grow 4.4% […]