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This installment of the 538 Politics podcast comes to you from the nation's capital, where Galen is joined in-studio by senior elections analyst Nathaniel Rakich and friend of the podcast, New York Times polling editor Ruth Igielnik.
They talk about the latest polling since former president Donald Trump's guilty verdict in his Manhattan hush-money trial and President Joe Biden's decision to issue an executive order restricting asylum at the southern border. They also play a game of historical election trivia, drawing parallels from past elections to today.
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It's been four days since former President Donald Trump’s guilty verdict in the Manhattan criminal case, and the early indication from the polls is that there has been a small shift away from Trump in head-to-head polling with President Joe Biden. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, we talk about the latest data and whether we expect that shift to endure.
We are also now officially on Supreme Court decision watch, with cases surrounding Jan. 6, the Second Amendment and abortion medication regulations yet to be decided. To prepare for those coming opinions, we play a game of “Guess What Americans Think: Supreme Court Edition.” Do Americans approve of the current court? And do they think it will deliver an unbiased decision on Trump’s presidential immunity case?
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On Thursday, a Manhattan jury found former President Donald Trump guilty of all 34 felony counts of falsifying business records in connection with hush money payments to Stormy Daniels. In this 538 Politics reaction podcast, Galen speaks with former federal prosecutor Jessica Roth about the legal implications of the jury's finding. Then 538's Nathaniel Rakich joins the podcast to discuss the possible political implications of the guilty verdict.
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Closing arguments have wrapped up in former President Donald Trump’s first criminal trial, where he is being accused of falsifying business records in connection to a hush money payment made to adult film actor Stormy Daniels during his 2016 presidential campaign. This marks the beginning of the end of the first criminal prosecution of a former American president, and the verdict could affect his future career in politics. In the latest installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen talks with Jessica Roth, a law professor and former federal prosecutor, to discuss the trial.
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It’s been a newsy week for elections here at home and across the pond. On Wednesday, in her first public appearance since dropping out of the Republican primary, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley said that she is going to vote for former President Donald Trump this fall.
In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, we ask whether her endorsement actually matters to voters. We also indulge in some British politics, with the announcement that the U.K. will hold general elections on July 4. The electoral picture for the Conservative Party is currently abysmal and they have six weeks to try to change it. And we check in on lessons from the downballot primaries that played out in Georgia and Oregon.
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This is the third installment of the 538 Politics podcast mini-series, “Campaign Throwback.” Across three episodes, we're taking a look back at campaign tropes from past elections such as, “it’s the economy, stupid,” or “soccer moms” or that question about which candidate you’d rather share a beer with. We’ll ask where those tropes came from, whether they were actually true at the time and if they still hold up today.
In our third installment: "the beer question." After the 2000 and 2004 elections, political observers remarked that Republican George W. Bush defeated his Democratic opponents in part because he was the candidate who voters would rather "have a beer with." The phrase quickly became a cliche for evaluating a candidate's likability or relatability. But is it really how voters choose their presidents?
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