16 分鐘
Back to the Future The Alpha Horizon
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Until the end of 2021, macroeconomic volatility seemed a thing of the past. Secular stagnation would keep inflation low forever, paving the way for indefinite financial repression. Fiscal discipline was abandoned en masse, as central banks would buy bonds at any price. Unfunded fiscal expansions became the norm, leading to large deficits that didn’t revert.
The developed world accumulated imbalances, and markets did not react. Currency and interest rates instability was a concern of just a few underdeveloped countries.
2022 came as a sudden wake-up call. Global inflation jumped from 2% last year to 10% today, burning years of easy money in the bat of an eyelid. Developed markets had to re-learn how to cope with market discipline. Central banks had to re-learn how to be inflation watchdogs. Loose policies are now punished with higher rates and currency crashes. Bond vigilantes are back, and policy-makers need to get used to it once again.
Until the end of 2021, macroeconomic volatility seemed a thing of the past. Secular stagnation would keep inflation low forever, paving the way for indefinite financial repression. Fiscal discipline was abandoned en masse, as central banks would buy bonds at any price. Unfunded fiscal expansions became the norm, leading to large deficits that didn’t revert.
The developed world accumulated imbalances, and markets did not react. Currency and interest rates instability was a concern of just a few underdeveloped countries.
2022 came as a sudden wake-up call. Global inflation jumped from 2% last year to 10% today, burning years of easy money in the bat of an eyelid. Developed markets had to re-learn how to cope with market discipline. Central banks had to re-learn how to be inflation watchdogs. Loose policies are now punished with higher rates and currency crashes. Bond vigilantes are back, and policy-makers need to get used to it once again.
16 分鐘