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An overview of the ideas, methods, and institutions that permit human society to manage risks and foster enterprise. Description of practices today and analysis of prospects for the future. Introduction to risk management and behavioral finance principles to understand the functioning of securities, insurance, and banking industries.

Financial Markets 2011 Yale University

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An overview of the ideas, methods, and institutions that permit human society to manage risks and foster enterprise. Description of practices today and analysis of prospects for the future. Introduction to risk management and behavioral finance principles to understand the functioning of securities, insurance, and banking industries.

    1. Introduction and What this Course Will Do for You and Your Purposes

    1. Introduction and What this Course Will Do for You and Your Purposes

    Professor Shiller provides a description of the course, including its general theme, the relevant textbooks, as well as the interplay of his course with Professor Geanakoplos’s course “Economics 251–Financial Theory.” Finance, in his view, is a pillar of civilized society, dealing with the allocation of resources through space and time in order to manage big and important risks. After talking about finance as an occupation, he emphasizes the moral imperative to use wealth for the purposes of philanthropy, in the spirit of Andrew Carnegie, but also of Bill Gates and Warren Buffett. Subsequently, he introduces the guest speakers David Swensen, Yale University’s chief investment officer, Maurice “Hank” Greenberg, former Chief Executive Officer (CEO) at American International Group (AIG) and current CEO of C.V. Starr & Co. and of Starr International, and Laura Cha, former vice chair of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, member of the Executive Council of Hong Kong and of the government of the People’s Republic of China, and director of the Hong Kong Shanghai Banking Corporation (HSBC). Finally, he concludes with a description of the topics to be discussed in each lecture.

    Complete course materials are available at the Open Yale Courses website: http://oyc.yale.edu

    This course was recorded in Spring 2011.

    • 1 小時 14 分鐘
    2. Risk and Financial Crises

    2. Risk and Financial Crises

    Professor Shiller introduces basic concepts from probability theory and embeds these concepts into the concrete context of financial crises, with examples from the financial crisis from 2007-2008. Subsequent to a historical narrative of the financial crisis from 2007-2008, he turns to the definition of the expected value and the variance of a random variable, as well as the covariance and the correlation of two random variables. The concept of independence leads to the law of large numbers, but financial crises show that the assumption of independence can be deceiving, in particular through its impact on the computation of Value at Risk measures. Moreover, he covers regression analysis for financial returns, which leads to the decomposition of a financial asset’s risk into idiosyncratic and systematic risk. Professor Shiller concludes by talking about the prominent assumption that random shocks to the financial economy are normally distributed. Historical stock market patterns, specifically during crises times, establish that outliers occur too frequently to be compatible with the normal distribution.

    Complete course materials are available at the Open Yale Courses website: http://oyc.yale.edu

    This course was recorded in Spring 2011.

    • 1 小時 9 分鐘
    3. Technology and Invention in Finance

    3. Technology and Invention in Finance

    In the beginning of the lecture, Professor Shiller reviews the probability theory concepts from the last class and extends these concepts by the central limit theorem. Afterwards, he turns his attention toward the role of financial technology and financial invention within society, in particular with regard to the management of big and important risks. He proceeds along the lines of a “framing” theme, referring to the context and the associations of inventions, and along the lines of a “device” theme, emphasizing the creation of complicated structures set up for a certain purpose, which require learning over time to be improved. His coverage of financial inventions spans limited liability for corporations and the framework of Township and Village Enterprises in China, as well as inflation indexation from its inception around the turn of the 19th century to its applications in Chile and Mexico in the 20th century. Professor Shiller concludes the lecture elaborating on swap contracts as financial inventions, and on the subsequent development of credit default swaps.

    Complete course materials are available at the Open Yale Courses website: http://oyc.yale.edu

    This course was recorded in Spring 2011.

    • 1 小時 15 分鐘
    4. Portfolio Diversification and Supporting Financial Institutions

    4. Portfolio Diversification and Supporting Financial Institutions

    In this lecture, Professor Shiller introduces mean-variance portfolio analysis, as originally outlined by Harry Markowitz, and the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) that has been the cornerstone of modern financial theory. Professor Shiller commences with the history of the first publicly traded company, The United East India Company, founded in 1602. Incorporating also the more recent history of stock markets all over the world, he elaborates on the puzzling size of the equity premium. very high historical return of stock market investments. After introducing the notion of an Efficient Portfolio Frontier, he covers the concept of the Tangency Portfolio, which leads him to the Mutual Fund Theorem. Finally, the consideration of equilibrium in the stock market leads him to the Capital Asset Pricing Model, which emphasizes market risk as the determinant of a stock’s return.

    Complete course materials are available at the Open Yale Courses website: http://oyc.yale.edu

    This course was recorded in Spring 2011.

    • 1 小時 18 分鐘
    5. Insurance, the Archetypal Risk Management Institution, its Opportunities and Vulnerabilities

    5. Insurance, the Archetypal Risk Management Institution, its Opportunities and Vulnerabilities

    In the beginning of the lecture, Professor Shiller talks about risk pooling as the fundamental concept of insurance, followed by references to moral hazard and selection bias as prominent problems of the insurance industry. In order to provide an explicit example from the insurance industry, he elaborates on the story behind American International Group (AIG), from its creation by Cornelius Vander Starr in Shanghai in 1919, to Maurice “Hank” Greenberg’s time as CEO, until its bailout by the U.S. government in 2008. Subsequently, he turns toward the regulation of the insurance industry, covering state insurance guarantee funds, the role of the McCarran-Ferguson Act from 1945, as well as the impact of the Dodd-Frank bill on the insurance industry. He devotes special attention to two branches of the insurance industry--life insurance and health insurance--and emphasizes, among other aspects, the consequences of the health care overhaul in the U.S. from 2010. He discusses the example of earthquakes, with insurance in Haiti and catastrophe bonds in Mexico. At the end of the lecture, he critically reflects on the role of the insurance industry in the face of catastrophes.

    Complete course materials are available at the Open Yale Courses website: http://oyc.yale.edu

    This course was recorded in Spring 2011.

    • 1 小時 13 分鐘
    6. Guest Speaker David Swensen, Chief Investment Officer at Yale University

    6. Guest Speaker David Swensen, Chief Investment Officer at Yale University

    Complete course materials are available at the Open Yale Courses website: http://oyc.yale.edu

    This course was recorded in Spring 2011.

    • 1 小時 11 分鐘

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