Van Hesser's 3 Things in Credit - A KBRA Podcast KBRA Podcasts
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Each week, KBRA's Chief Strategist, Van Hesser will address three things that caught his attention in credit markets that are relevant to credit investors.
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Fiscal Deficits, Seeing Around Corners, and Fundamentals Checkup
This week, our 3 Things are:
1. Fiscal deficits. What do you mean there’s no free lunch?
2. Seeing around corners. At a time of market ebullience, it’s a worthwhile exercise to think about what could change all of that.
3. Fundamentals checkup. We’ll have a look under the hood. -
Inflation, Two Economies, and Vanishing Excess Savings
This week, our 3 Things are:
1. That inflation print. Has the fever broken?
2. Two economies. The aggregate data and market developments are all good. But that’s not the full story.
3. Excess savings. That, which has powered the better-than-expected economy, is gone. So says the San Francisco Fed. -
Credit Card Losses, Bank Risk Appetite, Private Credit’s Middle Market Trends
This week, our 3 Things are:
1. Credit card loan losses. They’re at the highest level in 13 years despite unemployment at historically low levels. Does that make sense?
2. Bank lender risk appetite. The latest Senior Loan Officer Survey is out. We’ll tell you what you need to know.
3. Direct lending into the middle market. A new KBRA report, which has gotten a lot of market attention, sheds much-needed light on asset quality trends. -
Good Things Fading, Bankruptcy Trends, and Thresholds That Shift Sentiment
This week, our 3 Things are:
1. Good things coming to an end. We’re still not normal, but we’re heading there.
2. Bankruptcy trends. A recent shift in trend is noteworthy.
3. Thresholds. Things—that when crossed—shift sentiment. -
Big Bank Color, Net Worth Surge, and Treasury Volatility
This week, our 3 Things are:
1. Big bank color. We’ll summarize what some of the largest lenders are seeing in credit.
2. Net worth surge. It’s driving the consumers’ confidence to spend.
3. Treasury volatility. A Fed pivot of the unfavorable kind. -
Hot CPI, Earnings Season, and Event Risk
This week, our 3 Things are:
1. The CPI print. Is it really shocking?
2. Earnings season. A third consecutive quarter of earnings growth is forecast but peel this onion a bit and you’ll find some troubling undertones.
3. Event risk. It’s been relatively quiet.