The Julia La Roche Show

Julia La Roche
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Julia La Roche brings her listeners in-depth conversations with some of the top CEOs, investors, founders, academics, and rising stars in business. Guests on "The Julia La Roche Show" have included Bill Ackman, Ray Dalio, Marc Benioff, Kyle Bass, Hugh Hendry, Nassim Taleb, Nouriel Roubini, David Friedberg, Anthony Scaramucci, Scott Galloway, Brent Johnson, Jim Rickards, Danielle DiMartino Booth, Carol Roth, Neil Howe, Jim Rogers, Jim Bianco, Josh Brown, and many more. Julia always makes the show about the guest, never the host. She speaks less and listens more. She always does her homework.

  1. 9 THG 9

    #286 Chris Whalen: Time To Go Risk-Off, Why A Treasury Crisis Could Be Ahead, & Gold Displaces The Dollar

    Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, returns to the show his monthly appearance. In this episode, Whalen reports taking a risk-off position after 30% gains this year, noting Wall Street hedge funds are similarly going net short amid concerns about Treasury market stability. He warns that upcoming Supreme Court tariff decisions could force costly refunds while the Treasury faces mounting deficits from recent legislation. Whalen criticizes the Fed's "reckless" quantitative easing policies and predicts the dollar will lose reserve currency status as countries seek alternatives, leading to inevitable inflation as the US monetizes its debt. He sees parallels to 1924 Florida real estate speculation but expects a coming housing reset that could take prices back to 2020-21 levels, creating opportunities for patient buyers. Sponsor: Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia Links:     Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen     Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/     The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/    Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673 Timestamps: 0:00 Welcome and introduction - Chris Whalen returns for monthly appearance 0:56 Big picture outlook - Trump administration personalities not getting along 2:47 Risk off positioning - took 30% gains, markets losing steam 5:11 Wall Street going risk off - hedge funds net short after taking gains 8:15 Fed meeting outlook - rate cut uncertain despite expectations 10:53 Supreme Court tariff decision - could force Treasury refunds 12:57 Treasury Secretary's Fed criticism - "reckless gain of function experiments" 15:48 Treasury market crisis risk - biggest worry for Chris 18:03 Fed rate cut impact - quarter point fine, half point signals recession 19:45 Pretend and extend - massive forbearance in commercial real estate 20:04 Consumer health - okay for now but housing reset coming 23:08 Gold's changing nature - now buying on dollar/inflation concerns 24:25 Dollar losing reserve status - will be one of many currencies 26:22 Reserve currency burden - domestic inflationary component 27:39 Real estate speculation - like 1924 Florida land boom 28:53 Coming housing blow-off - prices back to 2020-21 levels

    31 phút

  2. 6 THG 9

    #285 Ted Oakley: Expensive Markets, Fed Mistakes, And The Case For Commodities

    Ted Oakley, Managing Partner and Founder of Oxbow Advisors, joins Julia La Roche on episode 285 to discuss the economy and markets. Sponsored by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia In this episode, Ted warns that markets are extremely expensive at 23x future earnings while the economy is flatlining. He expects coming Fed rate cuts to be an Arthur Burns-style policy mistake, creating a window to sell long bonds before higher structural inflation takes hold over the next 5-10 years. Oakley advocates significant cash positions (his firm holds 50% short-term treasuries) and exposure to commodities, energy, and gold as hedges against dollar decline and inflation. He sees concerning parallels to late 1990s day-trading mania among retail investors and emphasizes risk management over aggressive growth, particularly for older investors who need to preserve wealth rather than chase returns. With more than forty years of experience in advising high-net-worth clients in the investment industry, Oakley implements the firm’s proprietary investment strategies and the “Oxbow Principles” to provide a unique investment perspective. He is a frequent guest on FOX Business News, Bloomberg Radio, KITCO News, Cheddar TV, Yahoo Finance, and many more. Oakley is a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) and a Certified Financial Planner (CFP). He is a member of the Austin Society of Financial Analysts. He is also a Partner of Herndon Plant Oakley Ltd., an investment company. He is a Board Member of Texas State Aquarium, American Bank, and American Bank Holding Company. Mr. Oakley is a United States Army Veteran. Oakley began his career in Dallas, Texas, over 35 years ago. He is the author of nine books: You Sold Your Company, $20 Million and Broke, Rich Kids Broke Kids – The Failure of Traditional Estate Planning, Crazy Time – Surviving the First 12 Months after Selling Your Company, Wall Street Lies, Danger Time, My Story, The Psychology of Staying Rich, and Your Money Mentality. Oakley’s primary philanthropic interest is helping children. He is Chairman Emeritus and Founder of the Foster Angels of South Texas, the largest foster child foundation in South Texas, as well as Chairman Emeritus and Founder of Austin, Texas-based Foster Angels of Central Texas. Also, President and Founder of Advocates for Foster Children Foundation. Links: Oxbow Advisors: https://oxbowadvisors.com/ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@OxbowAdvisors X: https://x.com/Oxbow_Advisors Book: https://www.amazon.com/Second-Generation-Wealth-What-Want/dp/1966629168 Timestamps: 0:00 Welcome and intro 0:51 Big picture outlook - market extremely expensive 2:10 Disconnect between economy and markets - flatlining economy vs rising stocks 3:20 48 years in markets - emotions never change at highs and lows 4:43 Fed rate cuts coming - Arthur Burns mistake repeating 6:24 Sell long bonds opportunity - inflation higher for next 5-10 years 9:08 Most people don't know what's in their portfolios 10:27 Rate cuts won't significantly impact 30-year rates 12:02 Can Fed solve inflation? Only through Volcker-style aggressive tightening 13:28 Jobs report 14:20 Recession outlook - wouldn't hurt to clean up system leverage 15:52 Retail investor activity - zero commissions created day trading 18:22 Warning signs from individual investors - last in, last out 19:49 Liquidity allocation by age - different strategies for different ages 22:49 Risk management key - never lose a lot of money 26:59 Finding opportunities - screening 300 good companies 29:45 Current allocation - 50% short-term treasuries across strategies 31:48 Gold and bonds relationship - hard assets hedge against dollar decline 33:48 Commodities outlook - 25-year lows present opportunity 36:15 Biggest surprise this year - tariff costs not fully passed to consumers 37:54 Biggest risk - America not as strong militarily as we think 39:11 Optimism in American resilience and young people's potential

    42 phút

  3. 28 THG 8

    #284 Melody Wright: We're In An Insane Housing Bubble Fueled By Speculation That's Worse Than 2008

    Melody Wright, author of M3 Melody Substack, returns to the show for episode 284 where she delivers a stark assessment of the housing market. Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia Links: YouTube; https://www.youtube.com/@m3_melody X: https://x.com/m3_melody Substack: https://m3melody.substack.com/ Timestamps 0:00 Welcome and introduction - Melody Wright returns to the show 1:26 Big picture housing outlook - abysmal spring and summer selling seasons 3:42 New vs existing home price inversion - builders offering major incentives 5:02 First-time home buyers at record lows since 1980s tracking 7:17 Investment-driven housing market - not about homeownership anymore 9:33 Owner occupancy fraud - FHA program abuse by investors 12:06 Mortgage fraud prevalence - 30% chance when investors involved 13:46 Julia's first-time homebuyer dilemma - waiting for prices to correct 15:04 Demographics and housing supply - 15.6 million boomers leaving by 2035 17:52 North Carolina housing market turning - hope for buyers 19:15 The "Zest effect" - emotional attachment to home value estimates 20:20 Housing bubble worse than 2008 - fueled by speculation 22:13 Insurance crisis - 50% increases tipping people into delinquency 23:05 October 1st FHA changes - loan modification program ending 23:25 Spring/summer seasons characterized as "abysmal" 24:20 Tracking 2008 patterns - seasonal price peak already passed 26:28 Fed rate cuts unlikely to impact housing significantly 28:13 Where to find Melody's work and parting thoughts

    31 phút

  4. 26 THG 8

    #283 Warren Pies On The Widening Perception Gap In Macro, Why A Rate Cut Is Inconsequential,

    Warren Pies, founder of 3Fourteen Research, explains how markets have transitioned from a deflationary mindset to a debasement era over the past five years, driven primarily by massive fiscal spending rather than Fed policy. He argues that anger directed at the Fed should be redirected toward fiscal authorities who created unprecedented pro-cyclical deficits. Pies is benchmark long equities and bullish on hard assets like gold, having hit his $3,500 gold target this year. He believes Fed rate cuts will be inconsequential since fiscal dominance has already changed the paradigm, and core CPI won't fall below 3% due to tariff-driven goods inflation replacing the pre-pandemic goods deflation that helped achieve the 2% target. This episode is sponsored by Monetary Metals. Visit https://monetary-metals.com/julia Links: https://www.3fourteenresearch.com/ https://x.com/WarrenPies Timestamps: 0:00 Welcome and introduction 1:18 Big picture framework 5:03 Behavioral changes in debasement era 8:00 Fiscal dominance 10:49 Jackson Hole speech 12:18 Labor market loosening 16:06 Immigration impact 17:31 Inflation stickiness 21:44 Widening perception gap in macro 26:23 Housing market outlook 30:07 Equity positioning 32:35 Bond allocation 35:36 Gold outlook 37:06 Bitcoin allocation 38:28 AI optimism 42:45 Closing remarks

    46 phút

  5. 22 THG 8

    #282 Jim Bianco: Fed Chair Powell 'Caved' In Jackson Hole, A Rate Cut in September Would Be A Mistake

    Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 282 to react to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole speech on Friday. Bianco argues Powell "caved" on rate cuts despite inappropriate conditions, with core inflation above 3% and markets at all-time highs. He explains that the pandemic permanently changed the economy, while Trump's immigration crackdown created net negative population growth for the first time in 50 years, making current job creation numbers of 35,000 monthly actually appropriate rather than concerning. Bianco warns that cutting rates with high inflation risks repeating last year's policy mistake when long-term rates rose anyway, and predicts tariffs will continue weekly rather than being one-time events. Despite concerns, he's optimistic about AI creating net positive job growth and transforming the economy. This episode is sponsored by Monetary Metals. Visit https://monetary-metals.com/julia Links:   BiancoResearch.com   BiancoAdvisors.com x.com/biancoresearch 0:00 Welcome and introduction 0:38 Big picture reaction - Powell caved and will cut rates in September 1:50 Why rate cuts aren't the right move - interest rates appropriately valued 3:45 Inflation destroys economies - 35-40% of workers not getting 3% raises 6:15 Path to 2% inflation - pandemic changed everything permanently 8:59 Immigration's hidden impact - biggest driver of population growth 10:26 Border shutdown changes everything - net negative immigration for first time 11:53 Job creation numbers make sense - 35,000 jobs fine with no population growth 12:50 Labor force participation - only way to boost jobs is wage inflation 15:11 Long bond implications - tremendous flow into fixed income 16:45 Risk profile investing - boomers should focus on fixed income 17:48 Retail investor dominance - buying every dip since Liberation Day 20:41 Will Powell cut? - 90% probability but market wants limited cuts 22:00 Supply vs demand problem - for hire signs but no applicants 24:03 Biggest risk - tariffs will continue weekly, not one-time event 26:29 AI optimism - will eliminate 50 million jobs but create 70 million better ones

    31 phút

  6. 15 THG 8

    #281 Peter Grandich: The Stock Market Is 'Very Vulnerable' To A Crash Or Hard Fall, More Concerned Than 1987, 1999 or 2007

    Peter Grandich, veteran of 40+ years on Wall Street, delivers his most dire warning yet, saying he's more concerned than during the 1987 crash, dot-com bubble, or 2008 financial crisis due to deteriorating political, social, and economic conditions. He describes a dangerous "K-economy" where the top 10% own 86% of assets while the bottom 50% use credit cards for basic necessities, creating fertile ground for socialist candidates. Grandich warns markets are in a final melt-up phase driven by passive investing and computer trading, with no political cohesion to address the next crisis. He favors gold and international stocks over US equities, predicts Trump's trade war will accelerate de-dollarization, and expects Fed rate cuts won't help if long-term rates stay elevated due to massive deficit spending. Sponsor: Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia Timestamps: 0:00 Welcome and intro 1:12 Big picture outlook - fourth time in 42-year career being this concerned 3:04 K-economy explained - top 10% own 86% of assets, bottom 50% struggling 6:53 Market structure changed - passive investing and computer trading dominate 11:46 Trade war concerns - big stick vs olive branch approach 12:58 Fed rate cuts coming but long-term rates may stay higher 17:58 Significance of rate dynamics - mortgages tied to long-term rates 21:26 1987 crash call - how he got the "Wiz Kid" nickname 22:45 More concerned than ever - political, social, economic factors all worse 26:12 Socialist candidates emerging - wealth inequality driving politics 28:26 CPI manipulation - removing long-term care costs from index 32:36 Investment allocation - favoring gold and international stocks 34:28 Gold thesis - not early anymore but still has upside 35:27 Critical minerals shortage - AI needs metals we don't have 38:07 Faith-based perspective - Catholic faith guides decisions 41:33 Trade war will backfire - accelerating de-dollarization Links: https://x.com/PeterGrandich https://petergrandich.com/ https://www.amazon.com/Confessions-FORMER-Wall-Street-Whiz/dp/B096LPRYW6

    47 phút

  7. 13 THG 8

    #280 Chris Whalen On Why The Fed Won't Be Cutting Rates In September

    Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, returns to the show. He argues the Fed is unlikely to cut rates in September despite market expectations, with only a one-in-three chance due to FOMC dynamics and persistent inflation. He expects radical Fed reforms under Trump's nominee Steve Miran, including potentially moving the Fed out of Washington to restore independence. Whalen is bullish on gold as the world returns to sound money, sees housing prices weakening with a major reset possible in 2028, and highlights SoFi as outperforming Bitcoin threefold. He warns the biggest market risk comes from crypto platform implosions while remaining optimistic about Trump's policies despite concerns about subject matter expertise in new appointments. Sponsor: Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia Links:     Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen     Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/     The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/    Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673 Timestamps: 0:00 Welcome Chris Whalen 1:42 Big picture outlook - Fed rate cuts unlikely despite expectations 3:22 FOMC dynamics - need majority for rate cuts, only one in three chance for September 5:09 Fed changes ahead - Steve Miran and radical reforms coming 7:17 Fed independence and getting out of Washington politics 8:39 Fiscal reality - Fed is the tail, Treasury is the dog 9:57 Gold thesis - back to sound money as world's reserve asset 11:40 Gold allocation - still early innings, most portfolios under 5% 14:13 Jobs data skepticism - government shouldn't be gathering this data 16:13 CPI and inflation - too much liquidity still in the system 18:10 Markets still have room to run - buying opportunities ahead 20:18 NYC mayoral race - Cuomo path to victory over Mamdani 22:34 Wealth divide creating socialist candidates - inflation driving pain 24:05 Fed in a corner - can't squeeze economy like Volcker did 26:19 GSE outlook - Fannie/Freddie IPO coming in Q4 31:31 Housing market - prices weakening but reset coming in 2028 34:19 Investment opportunities - SoFi outperforming Bitcoin by 3x 36:15 Biggest risks - crypto platforms about to implode

    40 phút

  8. 8 THG 8

    #279 Marc Faber: The Asset Price Illusion Will Eventually Collapse

    Dr. Marc Faber, editor of the Gloom Boom and Doom Report, provides his characteristically pessimistic outlook, arguing that while Asian economies have bottomed out, mature Western economies are turning down amid unsustainable asset price inflation. He believes the 40-year asset bubble since 1980-81 is ending and "everything will go down eventually," making preservation of capital more important than growth. Faber is ultra-bearish on all paper currencies, expects residential real estate to decline significantly, and warns the US debt situation "will end badly" - possibly through World War III. Despite being in the financial sector that benefits from money printing, he surprisingly agrees with Powell's reluctance to cut rates, arguing money isn't actually tight despite higher interest rates. Sponsor: Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia 0:00 Welcome and introduction - Dr. Marc Faber returns to the show 1:18 Big picture global economy - Asia bottomed out, mature economies turning down 7:59 Asset price inflation and monetary policy - where money flows first 13:37 Monetary Metals ad read 15:23 The illusion of wealth - from millionaires to billionaires 18:46 Housing affordability at lowest level ever in America 23:21 US debt and deficit - "it will end badly" but when? 24:50 How it ends badly - World War III is a possibility 28:48 Ultra bearish on US dollar and all paper currencies 32:12 Precious metals thesis - as long as liquidity remains plenty 36:28 Cryptocurrencies - "will go up until it won't" 38:26 Fed policy - agrees with Powell not to cut rates 41:35 Real estate outlook - residential property "very vulnerable asset" 45:11 Biggest risk and opportunity - everything will go down eventually Links:The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report: https://www.gloomboomdoom.com

    49 phút
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Giới Thiệu

Julia La Roche brings her listeners in-depth conversations with some of the top CEOs, investors, founders, academics, and rising stars in business. Guests on "The Julia La Roche Show" have included Bill Ackman, Ray Dalio, Marc Benioff, Kyle Bass, Hugh Hendry, Nassim Taleb, Nouriel Roubini, David Friedberg, Anthony Scaramucci, Scott Galloway, Brent Johnson, Jim Rickards, Danielle DiMartino Booth, Carol Roth, Neil Howe, Jim Rogers, Jim Bianco, Josh Brown, and many more. Julia always makes the show about the guest, never the host. She speaks less and listens more. She always does her homework.

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  • Nhà sáng tạo
    Julia La Roche
  • Năm hoạt động
    2022 - 2025
  • Tập
    287
  • Xếp hạng
    Sạch
  • Bản quyền
    © Julia La Roche
  • Trang web chương trình
    The Julia La Roche Show

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