Epistemic Path Dependency, w/ Adam Harstad Raw Data By P3 Adaptive

We were absolutely thrilled to be able to sit down with Adam Harstad, who is basically Rob's secret weapon to dominate every year in our office Fantasy Football league!
Fantasy sports is just one avenue that allows Adam to display his incredible art of storytelling through data.

References in this Episode:
Football Guys Forums
Football Outsiders
Imperial March Major Key Version
The Map Is Not The Territory
The Treachery of Images 
Reactive Armor
Zidane Headbutt
Joey Harrington Article
Blotto Game
Ted Lasso Dart Scene(FOUL LANGUAGE)

Episode Timeline:
3:30 - Adam is a HUGE fan of path dependency, SSOG and The Crying Elephant, the ups and downs of being a sports fan 17:05 - Data and Storytelling, Business data vs. Sports data analytics, 46:40 - Risk assessment, The NFL Draft, Sunk Cost examples, Adam finds his niche with Fantasy Football 1:08:10 - Single trial experiments, Calibrating predictions and models, and Super Forecasters Episode Transcript:
Rob Collie (00:00:00):
Hello friends. There was an old Monty Python movie titled And Now for Something Completely Different. I think that's an excellent tagline for this show, and today's guest, Adam Harstad. Nominally, Adam, is a fantasy football writer and analyst, but I think you'll see that that title or really any succinct title really struggles to describe and contain the human being that is Adam. A better term for him might be something like curious adventurer, because that really seems to be the way he approaches everything.
Rob Collie (00:00:34):
We went in a lot of weird and nerdy directions, as you might expect. Yes, of course, we talked about football. So if you're not into football, well, you can tune those parts out. But even there, when we're talking about football, we're really talking about the fundamentals of how to think and specifically how to think in the face of uncertainty. We also talked about the differences between sports analytics and business analytics, which of course are significant. And we revisited an old favorite topic that of Nate Silver versus elections.
Rob Collie (00:01:04):
I learned a lot of new vocabulary along the way, and I really must say that I felt pushed in this conversation in a good way. He was pressing us to be better, unintentionally, politely, but that's what happens when you have really intelligent, vibrant, capable people in your conversation. We all should be seeking out the Adams in our life because they pull us forward on that journey of improvement. And he's an entertaining fellow too, so let's get into it.
Announcer (00:01:35):
Ladies and gentlemen, may I have your attention please.
Announcer (00:01:39):
This is the Raw Data By P3 Adaptive podcast with your host, Rob Collie and your cohost Thomas Larock. Find out what the experts at P3 Adaptive can do for your business. Just go to p3adaptive.com, Raw Data By P3 Adaptive is data with the human element.
Rob Collie (00:02:03):
Welcome to the show. Adam Harstad, how are you, sir?
Adam Harstad (00:02:08):
I am super happy to be here today.
Rob Collie (00:02:10):
Well, I appreciate that. You're a really good sport. Talk about just blindly wandering into something like a volunteer. No one has had as little context for coming on this show, as we've given you, we've really given you nothing and you're still just all smiley, ready to go.
Adam Harstad (00:02:27):
Yeah. We got a family motto for our little kids, we wanted to create a sense of identity. This is who we are as a family and our family motto is Harstads try new things, so I'm pretty much up for whatever.
Rob Collie (00:02:39):
Damn, that's how this came about is I saw a tweet from you a while back that said, "Hey, if you're looking for a podcast guest..." You had this long list of things that you were down for. And I'm like, "I'm going to take him up on it. Let's see if he actually means it." And you totally did.
Adam Harstad (00:02:54):
Absolutely. Yeah.
Rob Collie (00:02:55):