55 min
AFC North Projections Using New QB Wins Metric Fanalytics with Mike Lewis
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- Sports
Today we continue discussing where the NFL is going in 2022 with a look at the AFC North. Our NFL projections are based on a forecast of team performance and a subjective assessment of each team’s quarterback’s storylines.
The team win forecast is primarily driven by a new advanced QB metric called QB Wins. The QB Wins metric is something that Mike has been working on for a decent amount of time. The QB Wins metric is computed using a wide range of raw data (TD passes, interceptions, yards, etc.), expert statistics (passer rating, QBR), and non-QB data (defense stats, rushing, etc.). The algorithm leverages the correlations and differences between these data sources to separate out QB, running game, and defensive performance. A second statistical analysis estimates the relationship between quarterback performance factors (and defensive and rushing factors) and team performance (wins). The result is a QB metric that identifies how much a player contributes to his team's record in a given year.
In this podcast, Mike forecasts each AFC North team’s 2022 record using the QB Wins metric - with particular attention paid to changes in the QB position.
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Send in a voice message: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fanalyticsmike/message
Today we continue discussing where the NFL is going in 2022 with a look at the AFC North. Our NFL projections are based on a forecast of team performance and a subjective assessment of each team’s quarterback’s storylines.
The team win forecast is primarily driven by a new advanced QB metric called QB Wins. The QB Wins metric is something that Mike has been working on for a decent amount of time. The QB Wins metric is computed using a wide range of raw data (TD passes, interceptions, yards, etc.), expert statistics (passer rating, QBR), and non-QB data (defense stats, rushing, etc.). The algorithm leverages the correlations and differences between these data sources to separate out QB, running game, and defensive performance. A second statistical analysis estimates the relationship between quarterback performance factors (and defensive and rushing factors) and team performance (wins). The result is a QB metric that identifies how much a player contributes to his team's record in a given year.
In this podcast, Mike forecasts each AFC North team’s 2022 record using the QB Wins metric - with particular attention paid to changes in the QB position.
---
Send in a voice message: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/fanalyticsmike/message
55 min