Timely discussion and outlook for commodity markets, focused on grain markets.
Sunday Market Outlook 10.18.20
Prices have been firm into mid-Oct. During the past 12 years, you can only find 2 examples where "not selling" in mid-Oct proved to be the correct approach. In many years, this time frame proved to be the highest values seen through mid-December.
Traders who are the most bullish now, were the most bearish all summer. The upside leader in the soy-complex rally trend from May forward was soyoil. Soyoil topped 9-18-20 and has not been back to those levels. Soybeans topped 9-18-20, declined sharply, then returned to new highs, but can those highs be expected to hold if those that were long the leader of the complex, have exited?
Producers need to seriously look at current prices through the lens of total revenue available for 2020, including gov't payments. And especially view today's opportunities from the perspective of what was feared/expected during the April to early Aug window.
Producers also need to seriously evaluate opportunities currently being presented for 2021.
We cover a lot of items this week. Have a listen!
How to Handle Old-Crop Corn After Ethanol Basis Bids Plummet?
These are difficult times and every decision has a downside risk. In today's podcast I discuss yesterday's crash in ethanol plant corn basis bids and how to proceed from here forward.
Financial Details on the Farm Trade Aid Program, 5-30-19
CPA Paul Neiffer, who is fully engaged in agricultural policy, discusses Prevent Plant payment deferments and how other aid programs tie into this whole thing.
This podcast has high quality information that you will struggle to find elsewhere.
A perspective from NW Indiana, 5-29-19
Jeff Cole, with Pioneer in northwest Indiana, offers insights into producers' decisions and planting progress.
Implications of the Latest Planting Progress Report, 5-28-19
Duane Lowry and Chris Barron discuss the scope of large acreage that remains to be planted, with many of them to be planted after June 1st, or not at all.
A North Dakota farmer's perspective and experience with Prevent Plant decisions, 5-24-19
North Dakota farmer Zane Erickson and Ag View Soltuions' Shay Foulk discuss Zane's multiple years' experience with Prevent Plant decisions.