Excess Returns

Excess Returns
  • 4,8 (71)
  • INVESTIMENTOS
  • SEMANAL

Excess Returns is dedicated to making you a better long-term investor and making complex investing topics understandable. Join Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau and Matt Zeigler as they sit down with some of the most interesting names in finance to discuss topics like macroeconomics, value investing, factor investing, and more. Subscribe to learn along with us.

  1. HÁ 2 DIAS

    The Liquidity Trap Door | Cem Karsan on Why We Are Likely in a Bubble, It Could Get Bigger, And What Pops It

    In this episode, Cem Karsan returns to Excess Returns to break down the market through the lens of liquidity, reflexivity, and options-driven market structure. We cover why he believes we are in a bubble but still early in its trajectory, the mechanics behind today’s volatility dynamics, the role of AI spending in sustaining the cycle, and why traditional 60/40 portfolios may face major challenges in the years ahead. Cem also explains how investors should think about tail risk, true diversification, and building portfolios for a world where liquidity flows dictate outcomes. Main topics covered Why we are in a bubble but still likely to go higher first Fundamentals vs liquidity as drivers of returns Options as the “3-D” market and how they now drive equities Reflexivity and how option flows influence asset prices Retail adoption of options and misperceptions in the space AI investment boom, tail risks, and market liquidity feedback loops Historical valuation regimes and recency bias in markets Portfolio construction beyond the 60/40 model Tail hedging and the role of long volatility Importance of true diversification and managing interest-rate risk Timestamps 00:00 Bubble dynamics and why being bullish can coexist with danger 03:00 Fundamentals vs liquidity as market drivers 08:00 Rise of options and how they now influence markets 14:00 Reflexivity explained in simple terms 19:00 Mistakes investors make with options and structured products 24:00 AI spending, liquidity expansion, and similarities to 1999 31:00 Tail risks, China/Taiwan, private markets, inflation signals 38:00 Why 60/40 has worked recently – and why it may fail ahead 52:00 Inequality, cycles, crisis as a clearing mechanism 54:00 Building a portfolio for the next decade: diversification, tail hedging, box spreads, and non-correlated strategies 1:04:00 Closing thoughts and takeaway for investors

    1h5min

  2. HÁ 3 DIAS

    The $5 Trillion Question | Kai Wu on the Risks of the Mag Seven's Big AI CapEx Bet

    Kai Wu of Sparkline Capital joins Excess Returns to discuss his paper Surviving the AI CapEx Boom. In this episode, Kai breaks down the unprecedented level of investment in AI infrastructure, why today’s AI buildout mirrors past technology booms, and what it all means for investors. He explores the parallels between AI and historic bubbles, the implications of massive corporate CapEx spending, and where value might ultimately be captured as the cycle plays out. Topics covered: Why big tech’s CapEx spending has exploded and how much they’re investing The trillions in revenue needed to justify AI infrastructure spending Historical parallels with the railroad and dot-com buildouts Why companies that invest heavily often underperform How the Mag 7 are shifting from asset-light to asset-heavy businesses The risks of “circular deals” and financial entanglement in AI Why the AI race resembles a prisoner’s dilemma Which layers of the AI stack may capture long-term value How early adopters and infrastructure players differ in capital intensity and returns Where investors might find opportunity beyond the obvious AI names Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction and overview of AI CapEx boom 03:00 Why Kai researched AI investment cycles 05:00 Scale of big tech’s CapEx spending 07:00 Revenue needed to justify AI infrastructure 08:30 Market concentration and valuation risks 11:30 Historical parallels: railroads, internet, and AI 14:30 The capital cycle and overinvestment dynamics 17:30 “This time is different?” and lessons from bubbles 18:00 Factor investing and high-asset-growth underperformance 21:00 Sector and firm-level CapEx trends 22:30 Winner-take-all dynamics and competitive pressure 26:00 How the Mag 7’s business model is changing 30:00 Comparing tech CapEx to utilities 34:00 The circular deal problem and financial risk 37:30 The AI arms race as a prisoner’s dilemma 40:30 Will AI be winner-take-all? 43:30 Lessons from the railroad and dot-com eras 47:00 Where the value is captured in infrastructure vs adoption 48:00 Identifying early AI adopters and hidden beneficiaries 50:30 Sector and geographic AI exposure 54:00 Capital intensity and valuation differences between infrastructure and adopters

    1h7min

  3. HÁ 4 DIAS

    The Inflation Risk Investors Miss | Nancy Davis

    In this episode of Excess Returns, we speak with Nancy Davis, founder and CIO of Quadratic Capital Management and the mind behind the innovative fixed income ETFs IVOL and BNDD. Nancy shares her insights on how investors are unknowingly short volatility in their portfolios, the role of options and convexity in fixed income, and how her ETFs seek to hedge against inflation, interest rate shifts, and volatility in a unique way. We also discuss the bond market, inflation dynamics, and how investors can better understand and manage risks that are often hidden inside traditional portfolios. Main topics covered • How Nancy’s experience trading volatility at Goldman Sachs shaped her investment philosophy • Why most investors are short volatility without realizing it • Understanding convexity and prepayment risk in bond portfolios • The rise of passive investing and its impact on interest rate volatility • How IVOL provides exposure to interest rate volatility and inflation protection • The problem with relying on CPI as a measure of inflation • Why gold is an inconsistent inflation hedge • The yield curve as an alternative indicator of inflation expectations • Why interest rate volatility is historically cheap today • The relationship between bond volatility and stock volatility • How to think about IVOL and BNDD in a diversified portfolio • The long-term risks of shorting volatility and selling options for “income” Timestamps 00:00 Introduction and overview of option selling in markets 02:15 Nancy’s background at Goldman Sachs and lessons on volatility 05:00 Understanding convexity and its importance in fixed income 06:30 Why investors are short interest rate volatility without knowing it 10:25 The hidden risks inside the bond market and the role of mortgages 11:00 Why most investors are short inflation in real life 13:00 Conventional vs. alternative inflation hedges 17:00 Why CPI is an imperfect inflation measure 18:00 How the yield curve reflects inflation expectations 21:00 Historical yield curve data and current inversion 25:00 Interest rate volatility after Silicon Valley Bank 26:30 Relationship between bond and stock volatility 28:00 Using IVOL in a portfolio 31:00 Discussion on the national debt and interest rate risk 32:00 BNDD ETF and how it complements IVOL 33:30 Why inflation-protected bonds are underused in the US 36:00 Closing questions – what Nancy believes most peers disagree with 37:00 Why selling options is not income and the risks investors overlook

    39min

  4. HÁ 5 DIAS

    The 40 CAPE Conundrum | Meb Faber on What High Valuations Mean for Markets

    In this episode of Excess Returns, Meb Faber joins the show to discuss valuations, diversification, trend following, value investing, and the evolution of markets and investor behavior over the past two decades. Meb shares insights from his upcoming book, lessons from 400 years of market history, and how investors can position themselves for the next decade. The conversation covers everything from international investing and concentration risk to ETFs, managed futures, AI, and long-term discipline. Topics covered: The four historical periods of 15%+ annualized stock market returns and what followed Why current U.S. valuations don’t necessarily mean an immediate crash How global value stocks are now outperforming the S&P 500 The role of international diversification and real assets in portfolios Trend following and managed futures as the “premier diversifiers” The benefits of blending trend and valuation-based strategies The permanent portfolio and how managed futures enhance it Concentration risk in U.S. equities and what history teaches about market leadership The parallels (and limits) between today’s market and the dot-com bubble AI’s potential role in investing and portfolio management The behavioral traps around performance chasing and when to sell Lessons from launching and running ETFs and the 351 exchange structure for tax efficiency The future of markets, retail investors, and Meb’s upcoming book “Time Billionaires” Timestamps: 00:00 Intro and market performance context 04:00 Are U.S. valuations permanently higher? 09:00 The spectrum of future returns and investor playbook 12:00 International and value investing opportunities 15:00 Trend following and managed futures 19:00 The permanent portfolio and diversification 25:00 Concentration risk and market structure 28:00 AI’s impact on investing 32:00 Comparing today’s market to the dot-com bubble 37:00 The long-term case for value investing 41:00 When to sell and investor behavior 45:00 Lessons from running ETFs and industry evolution 51:00 Understanding 351 exchanges and tax-efficient investing 57:00 What’s changed most for investors over 20 years 59:00 Meb’s new book “Time Billionaires” and closing thoughts

    1h1min

  5. HÁ 6 DIAS

    Everyone Feared Recession. His Data Said Otherwise | US Bank CIO Eric Freedman on What It Says Now

    Eric Freedman, Chief Investment Officer at US Bank Wealth, joins Excess Returns to discuss markets, the economy and his investment process. Freedman shares his “control the controllables” investment framework, why he’s maintained a glass-half-full view on the U.S. economy, and how data—not emotion—drives portfolio decisions. The conversation covers macro trends, inflation, the Fed, AI, valuation, and how to stay disciplined as an investor. Topics covered: Data-driven investing and the “control the controllables” framework Why the U.S. consumer remains resilient Inflation outlook and how sticky prices impact portfolios The Fed’s next moves and what investors should watch Global diversification and the case for international stocks How to think about inflation protection and real assets The diffusion of AI and separating winners from pretenders Market concentration, valuations, and managing risk Life lessons from a CIO: discipline, process, and informed decision-making Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 03:00 Controlling the controllables 06:00 Why Eric remains optimistic on the economy 10:00 How portfolio decisions flow through US Bank 15:00 Data-driven insights vs. gut feel 18:00 Consumer strength and scorecard 22:40 Inflation outlook and Fed challenges 30:00 Bond market risk and the “Brazilian steakhouse” analogy 34:00 Global competition and diversification 38:00 Inflation protection and real assets 41:30 The reality of AI and productivity 47:00 Market concentration and the Mag 7 52:00 Valuations and long-term returns 55:45 Lessons for investors

    59min

  6. 25 DE OUT.

    Most Never Escape Stage 3 | Rick Ferri on the Education of an Index Investor

    In this episode of Excess Returns, we welcome back Rick Ferri, founder of Ferri Investment Solutions and host of the Bogleheads on Investing podcast. Rick shares timeless insights on the evolution of an investor’s education, the pitfalls of complexity, and how to build portfolios that are simple, low-cost, and behaviorally sustainable. The discussion covers how investors can think about macro forecasts, indexing, factors, international diversification, and the right withdrawal rates in retirement. Topics covered: Why macro forecasting rarely works as a long-term investment strategy The four stages of the index investor’s education: darkness, enlightenment, complexity, and simplicity How financial advisors and Wall Street profit from unnecessary complexity The case for international diversification and how to size it correctly The pros and cons of factor investing and why behavioral discipline matters more than factors themselves Why passive investing isn’t “too big” and why indexing works over time How to think about valuations and investor psychology Tips, gold, and how to think about inflation protection Rethinking the 4% withdrawal rule and why goals for heirs matter more than formulas The one piece of advice Rick would give to young investors today Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction and the four stages of an index investor 03:00 Why macro forecasting fails as an investment tool 07:00 The evolution from complexity to simplicity 13:00 Complexity as job security for advisors 18:00 Should investors own international stocks? 23:00 The behavioral challenge of factor investing 32:00 Is passive investing too big? 34:00 What to do (and not do) with market valuations 37:00 Managing investor behavior through small adjustments 39:00 Inflation, TIPS, and the role of gold 46:00 Why indexing works and what makes it unbeatable 49:00 The 4% rule and smarter withdrawal strategies 57:00 Advice for young investors and what Rick wants his legacy to be

    1h2min

  7. 24 DE OUT.

    Investing in a Liquidity Dominated Market | Remi Tetot

    In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt Zeigler talks with macro strategist and author Remi Tetot, known as “The Mad King.” They explore how liquidity, policy, and narratives have reshaped markets over the last decade, why fundamentals have lost their grip, and how investors can adapt to a fractured global cycle. The conversation spans macro themes like fiscal dominance, housing, crypto, and AI — and ends with a deeper reflection on human capital, autonomy, and the behavioral side of markets. Topics covered: How liquidity replaced fundamentals as the market’s main driver Why investors must adapt to desynchronized global cycles The impact of debt, fiscal dominance, and government policy on markets Housing as the next driver of the business cycle How AI, robotics, and quantum computing are shaping the next growth wave The maturation of crypto and what comes after the “altcoin season” Why narratives now drive price and how to read them effectively The risks and opportunities in trading liquidity and fiscal policy The cognitive and behavioral shifts driving modern investing Protecting human capital in the age of AI and automation Timestamps: 00:00 Liquidity and the end of fundamentals 06:17 Three continents, three policies, one fractured world 12:20 Housing as the next driver of the cycle 16:39 Crypto’s evolution and fiscal dominance 23:26 Portfolio positioning in a policy-driven market 29:44 AI, human capital, and the risk to autonomy 36:00 How narratives shape markets and investment themes 52:00 Building a macro narrative and market framework 58:00 Lessons for investors and closing thoughts

    1h6min

  8. 22 DE OUT.

    The 4% That Drive All Returns | Larry Swedroe on What You're Getting Wrong About the S&P 500

    In this episode of Excess Returns, Larry Swedroe returns to discuss the biggest risks and opportunities facing investors today. From tariffs and immigration to AI and private credit, Larry shares evidence-based insights on how to think about markets without relying on forecasts. He explains why diversification is essential, how investors can “sin a little” with duration and valuation, and why only 4% of stocks drive the equity risk premium. The conversation blends timeless investing wisdom with today’s most important macro themes. Main topics covered: Why forecasts don’t work and what investors should do instead The real economic risks of tariffs and immigration restrictions How AI may (or may not) impact productivity and market winners How to build anti-fragile portfolios around macro risks When and how to “sin a little” on bond duration and valuation Lessons from past tech booms and investor overconfidence The 4% of stocks that drive all long-term equity returns The risks of concentration in the S&P 500 Hidden costs of passive investing and large index funds When index and factor funds get too big to trade efficiently Value investing, interest rates, and inflation relationships The evidence on simple value strategies like Piotroski and Magic Formula How to think about growth exposure using quality and low volatility The opportunities and dangers of private credit and interval funds Why illiquidity premiums exist and how to capture them prudently Behavioral discipline, diversification, and long-term compounding lessons Timestamps: 00:00 Forecasting failures and market humility 03:30 Why Larry doesn’t make macro predictions 07:00 The real impact of tariffs and immigration on inflation and growth 11:00 AI, productivity, and the question of who the real winners will be 14:40 How to manage duration risk and “sin a little” 18:00 Investor overconfidence and lessons from past tech booms 21:00 Why only 4% of stocks explain all equity returns 24:00 Market concentration and S&P 500 risk 28:30 Why diversification still matters 30:00 The hidden trading costs of index and factor funds 38:00 How big fund size changes execution and exposure 41:00 Is passive investing too big? 42:30 Value vs growth and interest rate relationships 45:00 Evidence on simple value strategies and Buffett’s alpha 51:00 Factor diversification and one-over-N strategy 54:00 Private credit: opportunity and risks 58:00 Illiquidity premiums and fund structure concerns 01:00:00 Behavioral discipline, patience, and staying diversified

    1h5min
Ver tudo (404)

Trailer

4,8
de 5
71 avaliações

Sobre

Excess Returns is dedicated to making you a better long-term investor and making complex investing topics understandable. Join Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau and Matt Zeigler as they sit down with some of the most interesting names in finance to discuss topics like macroeconomics, value investing, factor investing, and more. Subscribe to learn along with us.

Informações

  • Criado por
    Excess Returns
  • Anos de atividade
    2019 - 2025
  • Episódios
    404
  • Classificação
    Livre
  • Copyright
    © 905628
  • Site do podcast
    Excess Returns

Você também pode gostar de