CLIMAS - Southwest Climate Podcast Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS)

February 2024 SW Climate Podcast – El Niño’s Getting Late

It’s the new year and Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins are back to give the lowdown on what’s happening in regards to the Southwest Climate in this month’s Podcast. They cover this past winter’s three-month pattern and overall conditions. Then they get global with the current state of El Niño and its influence on atmospheric rivers and other precip events seen in the first half of February. There’s a quick look at the resulting snowpack - which is an important feature of the west’s water supply. And finally they round it out with a look to the rest of the month which may or may not be the rally we need for a typical wet El Niño before La Niña comes back around.


Mentions:

ENSO Blog: “February 2024 ENSO Outlook: All along the La Niña WATCH-tower”
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/february-2024-enso-outlook-all-along-la-nina-watch-tower

Paper: “Observed Hydrologic Impacts of Landfalling Atmospheric Rivers in the Salt and Verde River Basins of Arizona, United States”
https://doi.org/10.1002/2017WR020778

National Weather Service - Climate Prediction Center: Outlooks
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

USDA - Natural Resources Conservation Service: Snow and Water Interactive Map
https://www.nrcs.usda.gov/resources/data-and-reports/snow-and-water-interactive-map

National Interagency Coordination Center: Fire Outlook
https://www.nifc.gov/nicc/predictive-services/outlooks






CLIMAS Member(s): &

Zack Guido

Michael Crimmins

December 2023 SW Climate Podcast – Special MailBag Episode


Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins sharpened their pencils, hit the library, and did their homework to bring you a very special MailBag episode of the Southwest Climate Podcast for this month.& Thank you to all the listeners for sending in your questions and for trying to stump our hosts.& This episode is not to be missed - so grab a cup of coffee and get ready to be schooled before heading off for the end of semester break.& And have a Happy Holidays from the Southwest Climate Podcast crew!


Mentions:


Question 1:& We are based in Northeast New Mexico in the I-25 corridor. What is the predominant drivers of summer weather and precipitation.& Are we full-on monsoonal, more influenced by plains state weather patterns, or somewhere in between? Dan



The climate of the US Southwest, Sheppard et. al. 2002



Question 2:& There seemed to be an abundance of DCAPE this season, which is perhaps related to all the strong winds and hail we had this monsoon. what is DCAPE? Sarah


Question 3:& It seems that an albedo effect after a good snowpack tends to influence/add to a poor monsoon, to some degree, through delayed surface heating… Does that hold any water or stick to the wall? Mark



Observed Influence of Soil Moisture on the North American Monsoon: An Assessment Using the Stepwise Generalized Equilibrium Feedback Assessment Method, Wang et. al. 2021



Question 4:& I’m wondering whether there’s a clear “global warming” signal yet in the monsoon? Sarah



Intensification of the North American Monsoon Rainfall as Observed From a Long-Term High-Density Gauge Network, Demaria et. al. 2019

Weakening of the North American monsoon with global warming, Pascale et. al. 2017

Increasing Future Precipitation in the Southwestern US in the Summer and Its Contrasting Mechanism With Decreasing Precipitation in the Spring, Liang et. al. 2022

The North American Monsoon precipitation response to climate warming at convection-permitting scales, Wallace et. al. 2023

Future Land Precipitation Changes Over the North American Monsoon Region Using CMIP5 and CMIP6 Simulations, Hernandez et. al. 2022



Question 5:& We're wondering if anyone is studying whether climate change could eliminate the North American Monsoon as we know it and leave Arizona high and dry during the annual monsoon.& Bruce & Joanna&



Glacial reduction of the North American Monsoon via surface cooling and atmospheric ventilation, Tierney (2nd) et. al. 2017



Question 6:& Like many people in the Tucson area I'm engaged in a lot of outdoor activities, and during monsoon these activities get pushed further up the mountains for temperature reasons. One thing that is always a complicating factor is trying to read the weather pattern to determine whether we're going to get dumped on or caught in a storm. Some clouds pass right over without a peep, others seem to become a problem quite suddenly.& Are there a few tips you can share for how to read the different monsoon clouds? Neal in Tucson


&






CLIMAS Member(s): &

Zack Guido

Michael Crimmins

November 2023 SW Climate Podcast – Winter is Coming

In this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast, Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins are back from Thanksgiving to give a recap of November, which was not much to write home about.& They start gearing us up for the next few months by taking a look back at previous winters and give a glimpse into this coming season as far as impacts, synoptic features, and large-scale drivers.& The team rounds it out with a deep dive into El Niño and the complex forecasting that may or may not bring us some needed winter precipitation.& Also - the monsoon is gone but not forgotten!

Last Call!& The Southwest Climate Podcast is looking to do a special& MailBag episode for the end of 2023!& We are asking for& listeners to send in their questions -& Can be anything Southwest Climate related or try and stump the hosts by sending in your inquiries and postulations at uaclimas@gmail.com.&


Mentions:&

U.S. Drought Monitor: Current Map - West

National Weather Service - Climate Prediction Center:& Outlook

National Weather Service - Climate Prediction Center: North American Multi-Model Ensemble

USDA - NRCS: Map - Snow Water Equivalent&

“Investigating Runoff Efficiency in Upper Colorado River Streamflow Over Past Centuries”

Climate.gov - ENSO Blog: “S(no)w pain, S(no)w gain: How does El Niño affect snowfall over North America?”






CLIMAS Member(s): &

Michael Crimmins

Zack Guido

Goodbye, adios, sayonara - In this month’s podcast, the crew is ready to put the 2023 monsoon in the rearview mirror.& Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins give this year’s monsoon season recap and the only good thing to say is that ‘at least it was not 2020’ :(& They cover what happened in September, review temperature and precipitation as well as the tropical storm season that prevented a full out non-soon.& We also get to hear the results of the Monsoon Madness game winners and take a look forward to a strong-leaning El Niño coming this winter.& &

Attention! For the first time for the Southwest Climate Podcast we are requesting listeners to send in their questions for a special MailBag episode in December.& Try and stump the hosts by sending in your inquiries and postulations at uaclimas@gmail.com.& &
&

Mentions:


RainLog
Southwest U.S. Summer Monsoon Season Precipitation Mapping
NOAA Global Forecast System (GFS) Model
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)
North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME)


&

&






CLIMAS Member(s): &

Zack Guido

Michael Crimmins

In wrapping up a double-punch storm here in August ‘23, Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins are here to deconstruct the current monsoon season.& They discuss various analogs to this year, cover Hurricane Hilary that made its way up through the western U.S. as well as the potential for additional tropical storms to bring more precipitation to the Southwest.& Lastly they end on their predictions for September and into winter.& Good luck to all the Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecasts participants out there!

&

Mentions:


Pima County Regional Flood Control District - Rainfall Map
RainLog
Southwest U.S. Summer Monsoon Season Precipitation Mapping
National Weather Service - Tucson: Monsoon
Climate Perspectives
@NWSPhoenix - Outflow Radar
Paper: “The Contribution of Eastern North Pacific Tropical Cyclones to the Rainfall Climatology of the Southwest United States”
CPC: 1 Month Outlook - Sept


&

&

{"Generational" Count = 1}

&






CLIMAS Member(s): &

Michael Crimmins

Zack Guido

Zack& Guido and Mike Crimmins bring you the July '23 edition of the Southwest Climate Podcast to tease out what the heck is happening with this year's monsoon.& They cover some of the record-breaking heat in July, look back at the historical record of past monsoons to find an analog to this year, weigh in on whether any or all can be attributed to the& El Niño flex, and lay out their predictions for the Monsoon Fantasy game.& They may not have any definitive answers, but at least you'll get an insightful look at this summer's puzzling monsoon.

Mentions:


Arizona Station-based Drought Tracker
Climate Perspectives
Eric Webb on Twitter @webberweather
North American Multi-Model Ensemble
Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecasts
The International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University Climate School - ENSO Forecast


&






CLIMAS Member(s): &

Michael Crimmins

Zack Guido