Are We Already In a Recession? | Markets Are Smarter Than Everyone | Picking Stocks Is Really Hard‪!‬ Broken Pie Chart

Derek Moore and Mike Puck discuss the upcoming Fed meeting and whether rates will stick around at higher levels for a while despite general estimates for lower rates in the back half of 2023 and early 2024. Mixed signals in the labor market as tech announces layoffs while other companies point to hiring. Why it’s tough to pick individual stocks using Tesla as an example.
 
Does the Fed still want bad things to happen in the economy?
Watch the Fed press conference
Tech stocks see gains after layoff announcements
Why picking individual stocks is so hard
Tesla record earnings and revenues but 2022 was a bad year for its stock price
Bull market in Orange Juice?
LEI Leading Economic Indicators flashing recession signal
Strong Q4 GDP but interesting durable goods transportation contribution
Fed Funds futures don’t believe the Fed will keep interest rates high
Would it be so bad if we got to 4.8% Fed Funds and stayed there?
Why markets don’t like rate uncertainty
Q4 earnings look to be below the prior year
Accuracy of the Atlanta Fed GDP Nowcast Model
NFIB Small Business survey not so rosy?
Jeremy Siegel the eternal optimist
So is good news “good news” again?
 
Mentioned in this Episode:
 
 
Earnings declines don’t always mean stock market declines https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/max-bearish-earnings-declines-dont-mean-falling-stocks/id1432836154?i=1000596061448
 
1994-95 all over again for stock market? https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/1994-95-all-over-again-in-markets/id1432836154?i=1000590865306
 
ZEGA Financial https://zegafinancial.com/
 
Derek’s new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag
 
Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://www.amazon.com/Broken-Pie-Chart-Investment-Portfolio/dp/1787435547/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=broken+pie+chart&qid=1558722226&s=books&sr=1-1-catcorr